Gurley was one of the first surprise picks of the 2015 NFL Draft, & while he carries some controversy, his talent is undeniable. Let’s look at where the NFL odds say his stats will end up this season.
Rookie of the Year (+1000)
This is probably the toughest player prop surrounding Gurley this season, and it’s courtesy of Bovada. At 10/1 to win offensive rookie of the year, I’m not ready to endorse Gurley as a candidate to win the award, but I’m not ready to count him out either. Among all of the other rookies who have a shot at the award, he is talented enough to win it, however the question with Gurley is whether or not he is going to get the touches needed to win such an award.
Coming off an ACL injury last season, Gurley hasn’t played much football, and it’s not like the Rams are desperate for running help right now. Tre Mason will likely stomach most of the load until Gurley is ready to play, and unless he comes up with an Adrian Peterson style return from ACL surgery, it’s going to be tough for Gurley to put up the numbers needed. I see the Rams easing him into the action this season, so lay off on his season long props, and maybe later in the season start to take the over on his game props.
Plus there are some other guys drafted highly in the first round that have a really good opportunity in front of them. Like Kelvin Benjamin last year, Amari Cooper is going to get every chance he can handle this season as the Raiders best receiver, and there is a lot of value on the NFL odds board around Melvin Gordon in San Diego. Unless Gurley is healthy to start the season, I have a hard time betting him to win ROY.
Rushing Yards O/U (750 ½)
This is another prop for Gurley that I have some questions about. With Mason alongside him to start the season, and with the health question marks, this seems like a lofty yards total for a guy coming off an ACL injury. It’s very hard for running backs to come back from an ACL tear, especially if you’re a rookie who doesn’t have a secure and steady workload. Although he might be able to come on later in the season, I can’t see Gurley getting the opportunities he is going to need to go over 750 rushing yards for the season.
Rushing TDs O/U (5)
However his rushing touchdown total is a lot more interesting, and probably is where the value lies. Gurley is a 6’1, 231-pount wrecking ball when he is running downhill, and compared to 5’8, 200-pound Tre Mason, he is much better suited to be a goal line back. Mason only had four touchdowns last season on the ground, and one of them was from 89-yards out. While his other three rushing TDs were inside the red zone, once Gurley gets up to speed, I think Jeff Fisher would much rather use Gurley to run in between the tackles. I could endorse an over NFL pick here from this Bovada prop.