NFL Picks: Where are the Sharps Looking at for NFL Sunday?

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, October 5, 2014 2:50 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 5, 2014 2:50 PM UTC

With Week 5 of the NFL season fast approaching, it’s time to lock in any last second NFL Odds wagers. There are some nice values this week, but whom should you follow to make your NFL Picks? According to our Consensus data, here are some spots where I think the sharps are. 

St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Earlier in the week I recommended taking a look at the Rams at their teaser odds of +13 ½. At the time they were +7 ½ dogs in Philadelphia, however since then, heavy sharp action on the Rams has forced the line all the way down to -4 ½ in favor of the Eagles. This is a huge drop, and the consensus data shows that over four out of every five dollars wagered on this game is going to the Rams taking points on the road. Coming off of a bye week, St. Louis should be rested and more coordinated with newly named starting quarterback, Austin Davis.

Although there may not be any value left at +4 ½ Rams, you may be able to tease the NFL Odds up to +10 ½ and still have some value with your teasers. However Bovada sportsbook still has the line at +6 Rams (-115), and that also could still be a solid wager. The Eagles’ offensive line issue, combined with the Rams’ stellar defensive front is a recipe for disaster. Philly gets Lane Johnson back this week after he completed his suspension, so that should help some.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
This is a very intriguing game, and more than one sign is pointing out that it may have some immense NFL Odds value. Right now to add it to your NFL Picks, you’d have to take +5 ½ with Buffalo, or lay the same with Detroit. Neither looks too appealing on the surface, but EJ Manuel has been benched for Kyle Orton. Orton has had passing success in this league before, and he has a talented offense around him. While it’s going to be tough on the road, the Bills may have value, and the sharps agree.

According to the SBR Consensus data, over 80% of the money being wagered on this game is going to the Bills. While this has only forced the line down one point throughout the week, it’s still a telling sign. It’s not a ton of money across the offshore sportsbooks, but it could be enough. Once again I’ll definitely recommend teasing this line up to double digits, because even if Orton is average, it’s going to keep the final score within 10 points.

The Lions are a good team, especially on defense. However their defensive numbers are inflated a bit. Even though that will likely continue after this week, the Lions have had the pleasure of playing teams who at that time were really struggling on offense. They played the Giants when they were struggling in Week 1, Cam Newton fresh off ankle surgery in Week 2, the Packers’ last bad performance in Week 3, and finally the Jets in Week 4. Enough said on the Jets. The point is, I don’t think their defense is as strong as the early-season numbers project. The Bills could get something going with Orton under center, so don’t overvalue the Lions here, because the sharps seem to be leaning towards Buffalo.

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