NFL Picks: Where the Sharp Money Bets are Going in Week 6

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 18, 2015 1:49 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015 1:49 PM UTC

There are three NFL teams pulling in astronomical amounts of action for Week 6. Some of these teams will make better football picks than others – but which ones?

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 17: 18-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-19 Total

We knew something was up this past Thursday. The day after we picked the Atlanta Falcons for their prime-time matchup with the New Orleans Saints, a quick look at our expanded consensus reports showed absolute boatloads of cash coming in on New Orleans. Not just public money, either – we're talkin' big bets. Real big bets. The kind that high rollers make. Naturally, the Saints won 31-21 as 3-point home dogs. Guess they still have some hap in them after all.

Now that we're on the verge of kicking off Sunday's games, our reports show three more teams pulling in massive action. And check this out: They're all favorites. The public will be on all three teams to some extent with their NFL picks, but with bets this big, it's clear the sharps are heavily invested in the following Week 6 trifecta.


Cincinnati -3 vs. Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
We took a look at this matchup when we chose UNDER 42.5; the Bills had just put QB Tyrod Taylor (knee) on their injured list, and as we go to press, it seems likely that EJ Manuel will get the start instead. The line had opened at Buffalo –1 before Taylor's surprise injury. As we go to press, the Bills are +3 home dogs on our NFL odds board, with 65 percent of bettors supplying over 93 percent of the action. The average bet size on Cincinnati is $1,543, easily the biggest of the week. The average bet on Buffalo: $205, which isn't small by any means. Definitely some contrarian bettors in the mix.

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Carolina vs. Seattle -7 (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)
It seems like just a few hours ago we were thinking about betting on the Panthers as healthy road favorites against a struggling Seahawks team with a lousy offensive line. Then we saw the numbers: 92 percent of the action on Seattle, with an average bet of $1,051. So we went in the other direction instead. The Seahawks are expected to step it up at home, where they've got the 12th Man and the artisinal coffee and all the weed they can eat. Oh, and a 20-9-1 ATS record during the Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson Era.

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New England -10 vs. Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
All your bets are belong to New England. Not only are the Patriots hauling in 94 percent of the action on this matchup, they're also getting the highest volume of any team this week – twice as much as the Saints, if I'm reading this correctly. Oh my goodness. If the Colts don't pull this one off, Vegas might have to close up shop. Good thing we took the middle instead. I'm not sure my heart can take all this drama.

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