NFL Picks: What Sportsbooks are Overlooking in Week 15

Nila Amerova

Friday, December 13, 2013 3:03 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 13, 2013 3:03 PM GMT

The Week 15 schedule offers us some interesting lines, so lets look at what the sportsbooks are saying and discuss why we think that they have missed the mark when setting the lines.

Sunday’s menu of Week 15 NFL betting is picking up pace as the weekend approaches and with a full slate on the books here are some of the value NFL Picks we’ve sorted out.

New England Patriots -1.0 vs. Miami Dolphins +1.0

Analysis: This is a rather puzzling NFL betting spread: Patriots (10-3, 3-3 away) as just the 1-point favourites over the Dolphins (7-6, 3-3 home). What are we missing here? Granted the Patriots are after a dubious 27-26 win over the Cleveland Browns, a game that probably shouldn’t have been as close as it was and that certainly nobody expected them to trail for most of the 60 minutes. But that was the case – happens on occasion even to the best of them – when they fell six points going into half time and then fell behind 19-3 before launching a comeback win.

Miami meanwhile are after back-to-back wins over New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers both of which were rather impressive. On balance, based on recent performance this spread might make some sense.

Moreover, that New England Patriots have gone down by several digits in the last few games adds some weight to the tight NFL odds initially. As well, the injury to Rob Gronkowski even. But the Patriots are one of the best teams when it comes to making adjustments – be it on the field during a match or ahead of a game in the face of a big injury as Gronkowski’s is certainly. Surely, they can cover this spread when they beat Miami earlier this season 27-17. Well, we certainly think so and that’s why they are our value choice for our Week 15 NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Patriots to win straight up and cover

[gameodds]16/227085/?r-1=19-43-349/us[/gameodds]

Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings +5.0

Analysis: Nick Foles has been putting up legendary numbers during his short stint as a starter for the Philadelphia Eagles. The rising star is has racked up 1970 yards and 20 touchdowns to date all the while leading the Eagles to five straight wins over Oakland, Green Bay, Washington, Arizona and Detroit, scoring an average of 31.5 points per game during this stretch.

 It’s not surprising therefore that the Eagles (8-5, 5-1 away) are listed as the hot NFL betting favourites to win straight up at -235 on the road at Bet365. What is somewhat surprising is the fact that they appear a bit shortchanged on the spread with just 5.5-points. Surely Foles can cover that with a simple flex of his muscles.

Vikings are (3-9, 1-3-3 home) after three narrow accounts, an overtime tie to Green Bay, an overtime win over Chicago and a 29-26 defeat to Baltimore. But none of those teams compare to the Eagles right now, particularly on offense. The Eagles will be a tough test for the Vikings to contain, so much so that even Adrian Peterson for all his prolific stats might be unable to make as much of an impact as he has in previous games.

That said the rumour mill seems to be pointing to Peterson sitting this game out. What’s more, Josh Freeman (yikes) might get the start. If these two realities actually do converge, then Eagles should cover this spread in a big way, which would make them the savvy NFL Pick on both the straight up win and to cover.

NFL Picks: Eagles to win straight up and cover.

[gameodds]16/227086/?r-1=19-43-349/us[/gameodds] 

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