NFL Picks: What Sportsbooks are Overlooking in Week 14

Nila Amerova

Friday, December 6, 2013 1:58 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 6, 2013 1:58 PM GMT

Week 14 offers us some interesting lines, so lets look at what the sportsbooks are saying and discuss why we think that they have missed the mark.

Week 14 NFL betting is firmly underway and with a whole slew of games to spot we’re back to search for value bets and great angles for profit. So let’s get started.

Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (-110) @ Washington Redskins +3.0 (-110)

Analysis: Washington Redskins have lost four on the spin, six of their last eight since a bye in week 5. To say that their season is done and done is the understatement of the year. Only by some divine intervention they might make it into the postseason...ha! Just kidding! It’s done.

They were eliminated when they lost to the Giants last week; incidentally, marking the 17th time in 21 years they are relegated to the couch to watch the playoffs. Not to point fingers – but if we were to  – arguably, RGIII has been a large part of the problem. Not the whole problem but a big part of it. Just the amount of times he’s been picked and sacked is enough cause for concern, demanding wholesale changes to the way the team prepares and approaches games tactically and strategically. 

Heck, during his rookie year he didn’t have as many interceptions as he has had this year, a grand total of 11 to date, which thankfully he didn’t increase in the Giants game but that doesn’t mean he won’t against the Chiefs, who let’s face it will be more than happy to pick his errant throws (great and big they are, though). A fact that takes us neatly to the point: a three-point betting spread on this game across sportsbooks? Huh?

Sure, the Chiefs have had a rough go of it these past few weeks with two defeats to the Broncos (home and away) and a defeat to San Diego in between, but if there is anything the Chiefs can do well, it’s defense. Certainly, the Chiefs defense will be all over RGIII, attempting to sack him at any opportunity and potentially lap up his fumbles and any number of his soaring errant passes...anything to keep him off the scoreboard or minimize what little damage he can do. Let’s not forget, this is the same team that started the season strong, maintaining an undefeated record through nine weeks. That’s no mean feat.

Chiefs’ defense is top notch, one of the best in the league and with RGIII out of sorts, they should be able to harass, rush and contain him easily. Everything about this game points to a great opportunity for Alex Smith and Co. to find their mojo, bounce back and do it big. That’s why the three-point NFL spread seems just too conservative, really. Almost a gimme and why we’re piling onto the Chiefs as our value NFL picks across the board.

NFL Picks: Chiefs to cover and win straight up

[gameodds]16/227062/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Be sure to check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 14 Fades & Games to Avoid

NFL Picks: Week 14 Value Picks

Tennessee Titans +12.5 (-110) @ Denver Broncos -12.5 (-110)

Analysis: On principle, the NFL betting spread on this game is appropriately listed at 12.5-points, even if the Titans have a respectable pass defense. Broncos on the road, Peyton Manning vs. Fitz-what’s-his-name and not least the heart warming return of John Fox to the sidelines (or box, whichever), all of which have game-changing impact that tip the scale towards a big night for the Broncos. The game’s main back-story however is proving to be the weather. Ominous forecasts, predicting ungodly freezing temperatures and white fluffy snow are stealing the headlines, which if actually do come to pass would act as a bit of a neutraliser and could leave the game wide open for the taking. Many experts are paying lip service to this angle and while they don’t go so far as suggesting a Broncos defeat or that the Titans would turn the NFL odds in their favour, they are suggesting it might be a closer game than the market indicates, a case of too many points under those conditions.

 For our part, we still fancy the Broncos under these conditions but at -600 to win straight up NFL bettors won’t be cashing in big. What we do like as well is the Broncos to do what they’ve done all season long and that is run up the scoreboard. So in our opinion, Broncos to cover is the value NFL pick. 

Moreover, for our additional value pick we like the Over 30 -115 for Broncos on the team totals, a total they failed to overcome only just twice this season and that is available across most sportsbooks.

NFL Picks: Broncos to win straight up and cover; Over 30 -115 on team totals

[gameodds]16/227070/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

comment here