NFL Picks: What the Books Missed & How to Use it to Your Advantage

Nikki Adams

Sunday, October 25, 2015 1:48 PM GMT

Looking at week 7’s NFL betting matchups, we spot the best SU, ATS and Total picks on Sunday. Check out these value NFL picks before placing your last minute bets.

Best SU: Patriots to win over Jets
What the “best” SU NFL pick in Sunday’s round of NFL betting depends on your definition of the word. If you define the best in terms of a sure thing, then, arguably, the Patriots to win at home over the NY Jets must be the best NFL pick. If you define the best in terms of remuneration then there are a whole slew of options to choose from on the day’s card. For instance, home underdogs Detroit to beat Minnesota.

For our money, we’re leaning towards the former definition. That means our choice NFL pick here is to back the Patriots, albeit at slightly pricey NFL odds of -370 at 5Dimes. It might be a lot of money to bet, but if there were a team to trust with such an investment the Patriots are one such team. They are 5-0 SU on the season with a 16-point margin of victory and 2-0 SU at home with a 20-point winning margin. Since 2014, they are the second best team in the NFL with an 11-1 SU record and a 17.8-point winning margin at home. Since 2012, they are 15-4 SU against divisional opponents with a 8.1-point winning margin. By these stats, it would be rather bold to bet against the Patriots at home this weekend.
NFL Picks: Patriots -370 at 5Dimes

 

Best ATS: Giants -3.5 to cover over Cowboys
For our best ATS NFL pick we’re looking at another divisional rivalry on the books at the weekend: the clash between the Giants and Cowboys. The Giants are coming off an abysmal loss to the Eagles in week 6 NFL betting, a result that shouldn’t be overemphasized. It was a bad day in the office for Eli Manning and Company, with divisional supremacy on the line. For a second straight week, the Giants take on a divisional opponent. This time, though, it’s an opponent that has suffered key setbacks with injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Plus they are debuting a new quarterback in Matt Cassel, one that failed to clinch the starting job in Buffalo despite claiming it was his position to lose during preseason. This has the feel of a bounce back game for the Giants and as the small favourite at home we like they’re chances of covering. The Giants are 3-3 ATS this season with a 0.5-point winning margin and 1-2 ATS with at home with a 3.3-point winning margin.
NFL Picks: Giants -3.5 (+100) Westgate

 

Best Total: Browns and Rams to Crack OVER 41.5
Of all the teams this season, the Browns boast the best OVER record at 6-0 with a plus7.8 differential on average, having consistently played above expectations and put up the points. In the last three games alone, in which they’ve gone 1-2 SU, they average 27.67 points. Problem with the Browns is that their defense just can’t keep up and does a great job to undo all the good work of McCown and the O-line. On the season, the defense is leaking an average of 26.33 points. Now, the Rams are just 2-3 in O/U betting this season with a negative 4.5-point differential. Their O-line has struggled in most of these games, which is down partly to new starting quarterback Nick Foles still looking for his bearings. However, one has to also consider the sort of teams they’ve had to stare down: Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Packers. The Rams are coming off a bye and must be raring to go against a Browns team that is in a let-down spot after a narrow loss to the Broncos in week 6. This could be the game in which Foles finally lights up the scoreboard in the manner he did when he was with the Eagles. The best NFL betting line is found with BetOnline right now, at a low of 41.5 points.
NFL Picks: OVER 41.5 (-110) at BetOnline