NFL Picks: Week 9 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 6:38 PM GMT

The gambling gods showed no mercy against the betting odds in taking me from a Baltimore cover to loss with just seconds to play. Thus my resolve is higher than ever with these NFL picks!

I can confidently say even with six NFL teams off this week, I have a trio of sports picks I really like against the sportsbooks this week.

 

Philadelphia Bounces Back on the Road
The Eagles left Arizona feeling lower the under belly of a slithering snake in giving up a 75-yard touchdown on 3rd and 5 with less than 1:40 left in the game and leading 20-17. Quarterback Nick Foles drove Philadelphia down to give them a chance to win, but could no connect for the winning score.

That was a stingy defeat, but by Monday night with Dallas’ stunning defeat to Washington, Philadelphia was right where they left off in the NFC East and reportedly anxious to move on to Houston.

As long a Foles doesn’t talk any selfies, J.J. Watt should just be a force and not extra motivated and the Eagles should move the pigskin against the Texans 23rd ranked total defense.

I fully expect Philly to blitz Ryan Fitzpatrick into two or three turnovers, which will help set up Chip Kelley’s offense for scores. With Philadelphia short road favorites and Houston 2-9 ATS coming off a road game, I like these NFL odds.

NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia -2 at Pinnacle

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San Diego Primed in Road Underdog Role
Miami is back home after a very successful two-game road trip in which they picked up a couple wins and covers. Normally this would because for celebration but for NFL football handicappers who do their research, the Dolphins are 13-29 ATS after being away from South Beach for Two Weeks

San Diego suffered two division defeats in five days, but will have extra time to reflect and bring back as many as three starters on either side of the ball to add more playmakers.

If RB Ryan Mathews can at least have 12-15 carries and catch 3-4 passes, the Chargers offense immediately improves, providing Philip Rivers more options.

Also, Ryan Tannehill remains remarkably inconsistent and if the Bolts play tight coverage, their defense can force several three and outs for Miami.

Even with their injuries, I think San Diego is too good to lose three in a row and wins this AFC affair outright.

NFL Free Pick: San Diego +2 at Bet365

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Totals Action for Sunday Night
When one visualizes Baltimore and Pittsburgh facing off, you think of crunching hits, paint exchanged on helmets and defense. That is why it was so surprising to see the total of 44 leap all the way to 47.

No question Pittsburgh scoring 51 points against Indianapolis has influenced the betting public, but in looking back 18 years of these teams meeting annually, last year’s total of 44 points was the highest-ever and that game the Ravens won 26-6 for an easy Under.

When these two hookup, in even today’s pass happy era, the focus is defense and when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team like Pittsburgh off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season, the UNDER is 25-6.

NFL Free Pick: Under 47.5 at 5Dimes

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