Another solid week with my NFL picks here at SBR Forum at 2-1, yet cannot quite catch the lucky break to take me to 3-0 again, like Detroit outgaining Dallas by 355 yards, yet failing to cover. (Minus four turnover margin had something to do with it) Nevertheless, like a NFL player, I turn the page and look ahead to this week’s betting odds at the midpoint of the season and have a trio of sports picks.
Kansas City Going Down!
I bet I have your attention now. That’s right, 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs will taste defeat for the first time in 2013 as Buffalo pulls off the upset. It is not lost on me as a NFL football handicapper the Chiefs were only 1-2 ATS on their three-game homestand and overall, they were outgained in that trio of contests, be it only by a yard a game.
Kansas City’s offense has been slowing down with each passing week under Alex Smith, as he makes fewer and fewer big plays. While there is plenty to like about the NFL’s top scoring defense, the offensive is not imposing and can be limited.
Early in Buffalo’s game against New Orleans, they moved the ball running and throwing, but once the Saints built a working margin and quarterback Thad Lewis had to throw essentially on every down, that is not his strength and the Bills were flustered.
At home, the Bills should generate more of a running game, which would allow Lewis to find receiver Stevie Johnson and tight end Scott Chandler.
With Buffalo 8-0 ATS off a road loss and a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS when K.C. visits upstate New York, take the Bills.
NFL Football Free Pick- Buffalo +3
Improved Attitude and More Effort Gives Raider a Chance at .500
The Oakland Raiders stunned Pittsburgh with Terrelle Pryor’s longest touchdown run by a quarterback and holding on to upset the Steelers. As I have mentioned previously here, because of prior contracts, Oakland is hamstrung in working with the salary cap and has several players who will not be on next year’s squad once the contracts are cleared after this season.
Nevertheless, second-year Dennis Allen has the Raiders playing harder and with more passion and the result is evident on the gridiron.
So much for Chip Kelly revolutionizing NFL offenses. Kelly is quickly finding out you need a really good quarterback in this league to win and Michael Vick and his hamstring is not one of them and neither is rookie Matt Barkley at this point.
Philadelphia has one offensive touchdown in the past eight quarters and the once unstoppable running game has 132 total yards the past two weeks.
Look for the Raiders to build on the momentum of last week and send the Eagles flying to 1-9 ATS after losing as a home favorite. You probably won’t need the points from the sportsbooks, but it doesn’t cost anything to use them.
NFL Football Free Pick- Oakland +3
Yes, I Chose New England Again, Just in a Different Role
I know, I know, you are tired of me picking the Patriots every week right or wrong. Even I probably agree, but this week I have a changeup better than the Orioles Chris Tillman, I’m bucking the NFL odds and betting against New England.
Sure Pittsburgh lost at Oakland, however, Tom Brady and the Patriots do not look right and getting a touchdown on the NFL odds is something I have to consider especially when the Steelers defense is ranked forth and the Pats are 18th.
To me this has all the makings of a three-point contest and I note; November road teams off a road loss are 30-7 ATS the past four years.
NFL Football Free Pick- Pittsburgh +7