SBR's Peter Loshak shares his week 9 betting parlay, here he'll breakdown the public vs. sharp action in search of betting value to generate 3 plays worth adding to your NFL picks.
If you felt like you were seeing fewer plays with clear betting value than usual in NFL Week 9 throughout the week, you may be in good company; there has reportedly been less sharp money than normal at the sportsbooks in Week 9 so far, although a number of games did take big public action.
The biggest public side of the week so far is Denver, where the betting action has come in at a ratio of 8-to-1 or more on the Broncos at most sportsbooks, such as 5Dimes and Bookmaker, to mention a couple. Denver is 5-2 ATS so far on the year though, and no sharp action as yet has come in on the Colts as a home underdog, so the books could be looking at a big loss in that game.
Green Bay at Carolina is maybe the most controversial spread of the week, with the Packers coming off of their first SU loss of the year, but still stand at 5-2 ATS overall, while the Panthers are still undefeated, although also coming off an ATS loss, putting them at 5-2 ATS overall as well. Several respected handicappers I have spoken with over the week like Carolina as a home underdog in this spot, but I’m not convinced; an elite team like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers leading the show is not a team I want to bet against when coming off a loss.
The Minnesota Vikings are at home against the St Louis Rams this week, and this game in interesting for two reasons. One, obviously, is that it features two of the top running backs in the NFL right now in Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson, but from a betting perspective, it’s also interesting because sharp money has been repeatedly betting against the Vikings week-in and week-out this year, and losing every time; the Vikings have now covered their last 6 spreads in a row, an amazing run considering the sharp action involved in some of those games.
And this week, the sharp action once again is fading Minnesota. The line has dropped from Vikings -2.5 to -1 NFL odds currently, and that movement was, once again, due to sharp action against them. We’ll see if anything different happens this week! There was also notable sharp action on the Over at 39.5 in that game.
Anchor In my parlay this week for the Pete’s Parlay Show, I included an NFL pick with the spread on the Titans/Saints game, where the Titans will play their first game after their recent coaching change, to go along with two totals plays.
3-Plays Parlay NFL Picks: Dolphins/Bills Over 44 / Broncos/Colts Under 45 / Titans +8