NFL Picks: Week 9 Advanced Lines From Westgate Las Vegas Superbook

Kevin Stott

Sunday, November 1, 2015 7:14 PM GMT

Here are all the fresh Advanced Week 9 Point Spreads along with recent series results, Trends and some very raw first-instinct picks as we pass the halfway point of the season. 

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -9½
The Cleveland Browns (2-5 SU, 3-5 ATS; vs. Cardinals Sunday) head downstate to Cincinnati next Thursday night to face the Bengals (6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS; at Steelers Sunday) in this intrastate AFC North Week 9 showdown at Paul Brown Stadium which may see the hosts trying to remain unbeaten and the visitors trying to keep their season alive. Last year in this game in the Queen City, the Browns upset the Bengals 24-6 as 3-point underdogs while Cincinnati and QB Andy Dalton (20-13-4 ATS on Road) got revenge in Cleveland in Week 16, shutting out the host Browns, 30-0 and getting 2½ points as an underdog to boot. On Thursdays, Cincinnati (182 PF-122 PA) is 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS while Cleveland (147 PF-182 PA) is 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS and 3-1 ATS Away. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lined this one an aggressive Bengals -10 in its NFL Games of the Year. Tin Soldiers and Nixon’s coming.

 

Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers No Line
At some point in the not-so-distant Future, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his perceived presence will stop affecting NFL Point Spreads and Opening and Advanced Lines, but until then, we deal with what we get, Bobby. Odds are Big Ben will play against the Bengals on Sunday in Week 8, so expect an Opening Line here on Sunday night (if Roethlisberger played Sunday) of around Steelers -3 to -5. The Steelers (4-3 SU, 4-1-2 ATS; vs. Bengals Sunday) are 1-5 ATS the L6 against the Raiders (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS; vs. Jets Sunday). This will be a fun game to watch and may be a good one in which to back the hosts with Oakland moving up in the General Public and Oddsmakers’ eyes but still having that horrid record when traveling east and losing 3 Hours going from California to Pennsylvania (PDT to EDT) meaning QB David Carr and the Raiders will be playing at 10 a.m. their time. Good morning, good morning! Now will someone please get Janikowski some coffee? Nothing worse than a groggy Polish Kicker in the morning.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets -8
The New York Jets (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS; at Raiders Sunday) welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS; Open Date) to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey next Sunday afternoon in this AFC inter-divisional tilt. Jacksonville and QB Blake Bortles (3-2-1 ATS Road) will be very well-rested (13 Days) coming in off their Bye week while the Jets will be returning home on a 3,000-mile flight from Oakland and will be playing on the standard 6 Days Rest. When these two last met in 2012, the then Rex Ryan-coached Jets beat and covered against the Jaguars in Jacksonville 17-10 as 2½-point favorites while the last meeting between the two here at MetLife was in 2009 where Jacksonville won outright, 24-22 as 6½-point underdogs. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS the L5 games here at MetLife against the Jets and 6-2 ATS in the L8 in this series overall. Those were different Jets teams though. A real tough call.

 

St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings -3
The St. Louis Rams (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS; vs. 49ers Sunday) and Rookie RB Todd Gurley (Georgia) head to the TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis in Week 9 to face Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS; at Lions on Sunday) in a big NFC inter-divisional game and important one for both sides. When these two teams met last, the Vikings beat the Rams last season in Week 1, 34-6 in St. Louis and covered as 3-point dogs. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Rams but the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS the L5 here against St. Louis in the beautiful Land of 10,000 Lakes, one being those hallowed purple waters of Lake Minnetonka. The Rams could go in here and go crazy and pull off the upset with the game meaning so much to them living in the rugged NFC West.

 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -2½
The Miami Dolphins (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS; at Patriots on Thursday Night Football) head north to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo next Sunday afternoon to face the host Bills (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS; Open Date) in a massive AFC East meeting for both sides and what will be a really tough and possibly season-ending Loss (in a way) for the ultimate losers. When these two met in this game last season in Buffalo, the Bills rolled to a 29-10 victory in Week 2 as modest 1½-point favorites while in the game in Miami last year, the Fish won 22-9 as 3½-point chalks so because of some Geographical realities (Miami is Hot and Buffalo is Cold), the Home teams usually fare well both SU and ATS in this series. Buffalo will be well-rested (13 Days) coming in off their Open Date and a nasty Loss to the Jaguars in London in Week 7. The Bills are 4-1 ATS the L5 against Miami—including a 41-14 humbling in Miami Gardens in Week 2 earlier this season. A great scheduling spot for host Buffalo and possibly the beginning of a second-half slide for Miami.
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills -2½

 

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints No Line
The Tennessee Titans (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS; at Texans Sunday) head to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans next Sunday to face the New Orleans Saints (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS; vs. Giants Sunday) in a Southeastern US inter-conference Week 9 game. As far as the Point Spread, the health and availability of Rookie (Oregon) QB Marcus Mariota (Knee, Questionable Sunday vs. Texans) is the reason for the hold-up. When these two last met in 2011, the Saints won 22-17 in Nashville, slightly covering as 3-point favorites 17-22 while in the last meeting here in the Big Easy, the underdog Titans won outright, 31-14 in 2007 as 4½-point underdogs. The Titans are 3-1-1 ATS the L5 meetings with QB Drew Brees and the Saints. Expect the Who Dats to open around 3- to 4-point favorites whomever starts at QB for Tennessee.

 

Washington Redskins at New England Patriots -12½
The Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (5-0 SU, 4-2 ATS; vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football) and QB Tom Brady (70-48-5 ATS at Home) welcome Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS; Open Date) to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro next Sunday for this Week 9 inter-conference game. The last time these two teams met was in 2011 when the Mike Shanahan-coached Redskins covered by ½ point, getting 7½ points in a 34-27 Loss, while the last meeting here at Gillette Stadium was in 2007 where the then Joe Gibbs-coached Redskins were blown out, 52-7 as 15½-point underdogs. This could be another big blowout as Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick and University of Michigan product QB Brady (NFL-fastest 2.10 seconds Release Time) continue to pursue the valuable Home-field Advantage in the AFC and an unbeaten Regular Season.
NFL Pick: New England Patriots -12½

 

Green Bay Packers -3 at Carolina Panthers
QB Aaron Rodgers (32-27 ATS on Road) and the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS; at Broncos on Sunday Night Football) head to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte next Sunday to face the host Carolina Panthers (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS; vs. Colts on Monday Night Football) in massive NFC showdown which will have great significance in the chase for Homefield Advantage in the conference. Both teams will be without their best WRs (Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin) who are both out for the season after injuring themselves in the Preseason. Still, a spiffy 12-0 combined and maybe one of the rare times two 7-0 teams would meet in NFL history. We shall see. The last time these two met was last season where the Packers rolled as 6½-point Home favorites, 38-17, while in the last meeting here in North Carolina, Green Bay won 30-23 in 2011 but failed to cover as big 10½-point Road favorites. The Packers will be coming in off a game at Denver against the Broncos and are 5-2 ATS the L7 on the Road in Carolina. The famous SuperBook NFL Games of the Year opened the Packers up as 4½-point favorites in this showdown.
NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers +3

 

Atlanta Falcons -4 at San Francisco 49ers
The Atlanta Falcons (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS; vs. Buccaneers Sunday) and QB Matt Ryan head west to Levi’s Stadium and Santa Clara, California to face the San Francisco 49ers (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS; at Rams Sunday) and Colin Kaepernick in an inter-divisional NFL meeting. The last time these two met, the 49ers won 34-24 but failed to cover as massive 14½-point favorites in 2013 in San Francisco (Candlestick Park). The Falcons are 3-1-1 the L5 games overall against San Francisco and Atlanta is 3-1 ATS the L4 on the Road here in The City By The Bay. Note Atlanta will be losing 3 Body Clock Hours travelling from Georgia (ET) to California (PT), although the 4 p.m. (late afternoon) start isn’t as bad and West Coast teams travelling east and playing in the East always seem to have it the toughest. But don’t cry for millionaires and their work travel issues.

 

New York Giants -2½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The New York Giants (4-3 SU; 4-3 ATS; at Saints Sunday) and QB Eli Manning head to the Sunshine State in Week 9 to play the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS; at Falcons Sunday) and Rookie (Florida State) QB Jameis Winston in this NFC inter-divisional affair next Sunday in Week 9. The last time these two played, the Giants won 41-34 at Home at MetLife Stadium in 2012—but failed to cover by ½ point as 7½-point favorites—while in the last meeting here at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa (2009), New York NFC and then DE Michael Strahan shut out the Buccaneers, 24-0 and covered as 6½-point chalks. The Giants are 3-1 ATS the L4 in this series.
NFL Pick: New York Giants -2½

 

Denver Broncos -3 Even at Indianapolis Colts
Thirty-nine-year-old QB Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS; vs. Packers on Sunday Night Football) head to familiar Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to face the Colts (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS; at Panthers on Monday Night Football) in this AFC showdown next Sunday afternoon in Week 9 in the Hoosier State. When these two heavyweights last played, the Broncos eliminated the Colts in the first round of last year’s playoffs in Denver, 24-13, covering as 9½-point favorites (by 1½) in the Rocky Mountains while the last time these two met in Naptown where the IndyCars do really rapid 2½-mile laps every May, Denver won 39-33 but got nipped by the ½ point as 6½-point favorites in 2013. This may be an entertaining game but provides a tough handicap with the Broncos Offense a big question mark under former Colts QB Manning and Indianapolis an enigma of sorts with a seemingly lame duck Head Coach (Chuck Pagano) just trying to get through the season. The SuperBook made the host Colts 1-point favorites in its NFL Games of the Year, so if you bought a little piece of that stuff (Broncos +1), congratulations brother. You just made yourself a little money. Maybe a humble donation to the local Animal Shelter or a Horse, Dog or Cat Rescue Organization will keep your Karma sparkly clean.

 

Philadelphia Eagles -2½ at Dallas Cowboys
NBC thought it had this pretty matchup on the schedule in Spring, now the Peacock Network is torn between blaming Dallas Cowboys (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS; at Seahawks Sunday) and QB Tony Romo for being injured or blaming the visiting Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS; Open Date) and Head Coach Chip Kelly for being semi-frauds in this Week 9 NFC East matchup from AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Sunday Night Football. When these two met in Week 2 in Philadelphia this season, the Cowboys won 20-10 as 7-point underdogs and Dallas is now 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings overall with the Eagles but just 1-3 ATS the L4 here in Jerry World. Philadelphia will come in here off their Bye week and 13 Days of Rest and may be facing third-string QB Matt Cassel for Dallas here in primetime next weekend. The Eagles already showed the Cowboys who’s boss in this division earlier this season and may have to remind this Walking Wounded team again. The Eagles are 11-12 ATS under the Sunday evening spotlights while America’s (Former) Team, the Cowboys, are 13-10 ATS at Home on Sundays, although no doubt those Dallas Rosters were healthier than this beat-up bunch of boys. Here in its NFL Games of the Year, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made the visiting Eagles 4-point favorites, so all that Offseason Philadelphia hype and Blue Sky may have accidentally done SuperBook Sportsbook Director Jay Kornegay and his joint some good as the odds are very similar and any big and potential quirky neurotic NFC East Middle was avoided. Neither team is what we thought they were. Lean birds over spurs and also lean half of the TV audience falling asleep at Halftime.

 

Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers -4½
Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, Open Date) head west young man to Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego to face QB Philip Rivers (41-34-1 ATS at Home) and the Chargers (2-6 SU, 2-5 ATS; at Ravens Sunday) in the Week 9 end-cap on Monday Night Football and yet another TV game which looked so much better to the Suits and Ties earlier this calendar year. Y’all suck. The last time these two teams met, the Bears won 31-20 at Home at Soldier Field in Chicago, covering ATS as 4-point favorites while the last time these two met here in Southern California (2007), the Bolts won 14-3 in Week 1 of the 2007 Regular Season, covering as 7-point chalks. The Bears are 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings in this series and are 11-12 ATS as Road Underdogs on Monday Night Football (San Diego 4-4 ATS as Home favorites). Lean staying away but watching a Cutler-Rivers duel on the soft Grass of Qualcomm Stadium sounds like a whole lotta fun, a whole lotta Passing and a maybe a whole lotta points. You need coolin’, baby I’m not foolin’. And if you are in need of a Point Spread laugh, the SuperBook NFL Games of the Year odds had the Chargers as 10-point favorites. Chicago may push San Diego here.

 

NFL WEEK 9 OPEN DATES (Bye Weeks): Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks

 

NFL WEEK 9 ADVANCED LINE PICKS: Bills -2½ over Dolphins; Patriots -12½ over Redskins; Panthers +3 over Packers; Giants -2½ over Buccaneers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)