With just thirteen games played in a week full of byes, it's tricker to find the juicy NFL picks you can sink your betting teeth into. It took some searching, but here are three football picks that we think hold value for your sports betting.
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I am still in shock how poorly Tom Brady played against New York in their loss, costing me a perfect 3-0 day. This takes my record to 9-8-1 for the season. While I find this the hardest week of the season, here are three NFL picks I examined which should hold value for your sports betting. All listed odds are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook.
Missed with Patriots, Right Back on Them
Tom Brady has received a lot of deserving accolades in his career and has the trait all great quarterbacks have, accuracy. With the advancing years, since last season, the Brady we all knew for pinpoint passing has been in decline. No question a completely new batch of receivers has thrown off the chemistry, but in the game against the Jets, Brady was to blame far more often than those trying to catch his passes.
Nevertheless, I think New England is catching Miami at the right time and takes out their frustration on them at home. The Dolphins have gone from contenders to pretenders in three games, supplanting their 3-0 start with a trio of losses and failing to cover any of them.
The offensive line is not blocking effectively and the defensive is not making key stops. When looking over the NFL betting odds and seeing the Patriots have gone from -4.5 to touchdown favorites, as part of the NFL football handicappers group it is hard to call this a value play, but I have no problem calling New England a convincing winner with one of my sports picks.
NFL Pick: Pick the Patriots -7 (+100) on the spread, available at Bet365
Not All Doom and Gloom in Detroit
This is a big game for the Lions. With a victory, Detroit heads into the bye week 5-3 and has three very winnable games against Tampa Bay, the Giants and at Minnesota in the second. When they return, they will go to Chicago to face the Bears without Jay Cutler and arguably, their toughest task remaining is Thanksgiving against Green Bay.
Coming off a last second loss and at home, motivation should be no issues for Detroit.
Dallas proved in Philadelphia they are the best team in the NFC East, but they are in a tough spot. While the victory was sweet, the Cowboys have not won back-to-back road games since 2009 and are 1 for 9 in attempts the past six seasons.
Drilling down a little deeper, we find Dallas has covered three in a row and when they have taken the money three out of four times and their next game is on the road, they are an abysmal 5-21 against the spread.
NFL Pick: Take Detroit -3 (-120) on the spread, available at Bet365
With No Running Game, Atlanta is Play Against Material
The Falcons might have hung 31 points on the scoreboard against Tampa Bay, but it does not hide a recent trend. Atlanta ended with 18 rushing yards on 18 attempts and while we acknowledge the actual running backs had 30 yards on 15 carries, either one of those figures is not very good.
That means in the past three weeks, Atlanta has 140 total rushing yards or 46.6 per game. Even if Steven Jackson is a possibility to come back this week, the conundrum is bigger than an aging running back to return, there are no holes to run through. This leaves Matt Ryan to be almost perfect throwing the ball to a depleted receiving group.
While I would rather have a quarterback like Ryan over Carson Palmer at this point of their careers, look for Arizona to have a bounce back performance with a simpler offensive scheme and handle the dirty birds. I’ll give the sportsbooks points away and go after a 3-0 Sunday.
NFL Pick: Bet the Cardinals -2.5 on the spread, at Bet365
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