We are starting to come around with NFL picks of value the last couple weeks and might be headed toward a similar hot streak in Week 8. Find out where we are looking to place our bets this weekend.
I have to admit I feel as comfortable with these NFL picks versus the NFL odds as any week this season. Let’s break them down against the betting odds from the sportsbooks and feel free to comment on them as well.
Colts Riding High These Days
Decided to keep the same title as last week because for Indianapolis not much has changed other than the Colts moving 4-0 SU and ATS the past four weeks.
Besides the phenomenal play of Andrew Luck and the Indy offense thriving at a high level, what has garnered my attention as a NFL football handicapper is after Indianapolis surrendered 61 points in their first two games, head coach Chuck Pagano and his defensive coaches were forced
to make personnel changes because of injuries. The players accepted what the coaches preached and they have completely reinvented the defense with everyone accountable for their own assignments and they are allowing 15 points per game since.
With Pittsburgh still searching for answers as they try and rebuild on the run, I prefer Indianapolis being the more complete squad and 9-1 ATS off a double digit cover.
NFL Football Free Pick- Indianapolis -3
Baltimore Catching Bengals at the Right Time
Cincinnati, like Austin Powers, has lost its mojo. The Bengals are 0-2-1 and have failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games. At this time there is no positive element coach Marvin Lewis can build on and that is especially true when reviewing the statistics as Cincinnati has been outgained by 158 yards a contest in failing to win or cover since the bye week.
A lot times bettors will consider Cincinnati ripe for a strong showing, being at home for a division contest which generally increases focus and in many instances I might agree.
What makes this one different is the Bengals as mentioned have really been outplayed and if you look at Baltimore’s season, they have two losses by a touchdown each, meaning they were in the games. However, four of their five victories have been from 20 to 31 points, in other words, convincing blowouts.
Play the better team at this juncture playing into same-season revenge.
NFL Football Free Pick- Baltimore +1.5
Totals Action for Sunday Night
I’m the first to admit, we have lost quite a bit of value from the line adjustment by online sportsbooks, but I am still on board at the current totals line to back the listed number.
Let’s start with Green Bay being 6-1 OVER this season and follow that up with New Orleans at 5-1 OVER. Consider in the last eight gatherings of these NFC teams, they are 7-1 OVER.
Next, take at face value Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are averaging 36.2 PPG since tallying seven points at Detroit almost five weeks ago and Drew Brees and the Saints are chomping at the bit having lost three times late in games with a combination of offensive and defensive failures.
You don’t need a hunting dog to pick up the scent of this matchup; this is goes past the number posted on the Week 8 NFL odds boards.
NFL Football Free Pick- Over 55