Over the last several weeks, I have been releasing some underdog money line parlays, and a few of them ended up being very successful. This week I am switching it up just a bit for my exotic play of the week, and in Week 8, I have a 2-team pleaser, with a payout of +800. While it holds more risk, there are a couple of NFL Picks this week that I think hold great value when pleased.
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Browns vs. Chiefs
The Browns head into Arrowhead this week to play the Chiefs, and the NFL Odds have the spread favoring KC anywhere from -7 ½ to -9 ½. A few books have the total at 40, which I think could be dropped down to 33 and still hold value in a pleaser. Remember in a pleaser, the bettor is the one taking on the extra risk by selling points to the sportsbook.
So far this season, Kansas City has cashed the over just once, and at home they are even better, cashing the under in their last five home games in a row. With the Browns coming into town, I would be very surprised if Cleveland got an offensive touchdown in this game. Six or nine points is reasonable to expect, but against the Chiefs, it’s hard to see them scoring with Brandon Weeden under center in the madhouse that is Arrowhead.
Six of Cleveland’s last eight road games have gone under the total, and a big reason for that is their defense. If the Browns can at the very least come to play on that side of the ball, this is going to be great value. A final score of 20-9 is very reasonable to expect from these two teams considering how good their defenses are, and how slow and methodical their offenses can be.
Steelers vs. Raiders
Fresh off of their bye, the Raiders welcome in the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8, and the NFL Odds favor Pittsburgh at -3, with a total of just 41 points. After a week off, the Raiders’ defense should be rested and ready to take on the Steelers, who have one of the worst offensive lines in football.
On the flip side, we saw the formula to beat the Raiders this past week. Rush Terrelle Pryor on every play, and make the young quarterback uncomfortable. As long as the Steelers can send some pressure, I think Pryor will make some more mistakes, even at home. Pittsburgh is still going to be able to cover on the back end with their good secondary, which should make offense very hard to come by in this game all around.
Oakland is 5-1 cashing the under so far this season, while Pittsburgh is 4-2 going under the total. The last six times these two teams have met, four of them the total went under. On top of that, the Raiders have cashed the over in five home games in a row.
This game could very easily stay in the teens once the 4th quarter clock hits zero, and I think adding it along with the Browns and Chiefs to a 2-team pleaser is very solid value. A small one-unit shot at +800 is enough for me in the Week 8 NFL Odds.
My Pick: 2-team 7 point pleaser: Browns & Chiefs ‘Under’ 33 and Steelers vs. Raiders ‘Under’ 34 (+800)