NFL Picks: Week 7 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 15, 2013 6:00 PM GMT

NFL Week 7 is starting in earnest, so here are three NFL picks which we think should hold value for your sports betting this week. Can we improve our winning record?

Read our Daily NFL Week 7 Betting Odds Report and sharpen your sports picks for this week!

Oakland’s offensive line was no match for Kansas City’s defense and Denver did not play with the fervor I expected to blowout Jacksonville, leaving me at .500 for the season. Here are three NFL picks I examined which should hold value.

Buy Early, Buy Often on the Patriots

New England opened as six-point road favorite at different sportsbooks and they were bet down to 3.5 or four digits, which adds immediate value if you like the favorite in this division matchup.

This in my opinion should be jumped on swiftly since I am firmly convinced this will be heading back towards original starting point.

Pittsburgh, in their first win of the year, executed what others have whispered about how to defeat the New York Jets defense. You use short, quick passes to neutralize the Jets pass rush. The Steelers ran a clinic on screen passes, throwing no fewer than 10, mostly bubble screens to wide receivers. If this sounds like something Tom Brady likes to do and can execute with New England’s offense, that is correct.

Factor in a much improve Patriots defense and Bill Belichick’s long history of beating young quarterback like Geno Smith, this a works for making football picks.

[gameodds]16/226964/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Bet the New England Patriots, -4 on the points at Bet365

 

Comfortable with Carolina

It has been two nice wins for St. Louis. However, I cannot see them winning back-to-back road games unless they have a turnover margin of +3 or better like they have enjoyed the past two weeks.

If you look at Carolina’s season, other than the Arizona game, they could or should have beaten both Seattle and Buffalo. The Panthers rank third in total defense and should easily stop the Cardinals 28th rated rushing attack and generate a steady pass rush on Sam Bradford.

If quarterback Cam Newton keeps his wits about him, Carolina should move the ball regularly on St. Louis and be able to convert in the red zone against a beatable Rams defense. The NFL odds have been lowered on the home team, adding value.

[gameodds]16/226966/?r3=349-43-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=349-43-192-19/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Pick the Panthers minus the points, -6 available at William Hill

 

San Fran heads to Nashville and steals a win and cover

The Niners won and covered against Arizona, but it was not until they wore down the Cardinals with the running game, just like great teams are supposed to do. They will face the Titans, who covered at Seattle and raised their spread record to 4-1-1 ATS this season.

Here is why the 49ers are the play. Seattle actually dominated the contest against the Titans, out-gaining them by 181 yards, thus the outcome was not indicative of the play was on the field.

Tennessee did not commit a single turnover when Jake Locker started the first four games. While this was not going to continue for the season, it is not a coincidence the Titans have five turnovers in losing their last two games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. As NFL football handicappers know, Fitzpatrick was run out of Buffalo for the same crime and eventually makes mistakes which lead to points for the opposition. I’ll take my chances on the sports betting odds with San Fran, who win and cover handily.

[gameodds]16/226970/?r3=192-43-349-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=192-43-349-19/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Take the Niners' point spread, -4 (-110) at Ladbrokes

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