NFL Picks: Week 7 Sunday Value Picks

Joe Catalano

Sunday, October 20, 2013 1:31 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 20, 2013 1:31 PM UTC

We have a lot of even matchups on paper for NFL Week 7. But what's on paper sometimes doesn't translate to the field. Let's see which teams are the real deal for this NFL Sunday.

Watch as we attempt to decipher the winners from the losers with our special value NFL picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

Although it’s true that the Atlanta Falcons are off to one of their worst starts in recent years and are plagued by injuries, NFL odds makers are being very generous to Tampa Bay backers as the Bucs are only a 7-point betting underdog. You would think that players like Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez deserve a lot more respect than that at home against a winless team with an unproven Mike Glennon at the quarterback position.

Offensive Woes

Tampa Bay’s biggest problem has been on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Josh Freeman has moved on to Minnesota and there will be no excuses in a must-win situation. While Vincent Jackson has been very productive this season at the wide receiver position, running back, Doug Martin, has been somewhat of a disappointment. He’s rushed for only 3.5 yards per carry and 1 touchdown. Look for Martin to get more opportunities in this game.

Atlanta is banged up as a team overall. They’re missing their superstar Julio Jones, who it out for the season, Steve Jackson is sidelined for another week with his hamstring problems, kicker Lawrence Tynes contracted MRSA and that’s very contagious, and backup running back Jason Snelling is recovering from a concussion.

For your sports picks, look for Matt Ryan to pull this “must-win” game out, but I don’t expect to see a lot of offense with all of the injuries.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Bucs/Falcons game to go UNDER 43 points, at Bet365

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6)

0-6 and 3.5 point favorites?

I’m going to skip right to Monday night after I saw this line. It’s very rare that you see a winless team like this listed as the favorites, regardless if they’re playing at home. If the Giants can’t win this game ,they might go 0-16. Minnesota got destroyed last week by the Carolina Panthers 35-10 and Adrian Peterson’s head might not be in the right place.

Nobody really knows that entire matter of Peterson and the son that he never met who passed away, but it seemed to affect AP’s play on the field last week as he produced an ineffective 62 yards rushing. The Giants on the other hand, actually played a good game, losing to a tough Bears team in Chicago, 27-21. Brandon Jacobs had his biggest game of the season as he broke the 100 yard plateau and the Giants are hoping for more of the same this week. That said, they signed Peyton Hillis as an insurance policy. If the Giants offensive plays up to their potential and Eli stays away from the mistakes, they should be able to destroy Minnesota. Funny enough, New York isn’t entirely out of the playoff picture. A win here would do wonders for their confidence and look for the G-Men to outclass the Vikings on Monday night.

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NFL Pick: Take the Giants -3.5 on the spread, EVEN money at William Hill


Other Games

Denver Broncos -7 Over Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning has been waiting to stick it to his old team for a long time. Don’t believe the goodwill gestures as Manning, Moreno and company will be out for blood. Andrew Luck may be the future but Manning is the present.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 Over Baltimore Ravens

The Steelers finally got some confidence by picking up their first win of the season over the New York Jets last week. This is a must win situation for Pittsburgh over the defending Super Bowl Champions. The betting line is appealing, Pitt is at home, and Ben Rothlisberger and Antonio Brown seem to be an unstoppable duo despite a poor Pitt running game. Rothlisberger can an elite quarterback when he’s at his best. Baltimore hasn’t showed me the hunger yet this season and Pittsburgh did last week.

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