I have a great feeling about both of these games, and I think the NFL Odds are outstanding value plays this week for both plays.
The US government may have temporarily solved their budget/debt crisis, but there is another crisis in Washington, DC right now, and it’s the Redskins’ defense. While the Skins’ defense hasn’t been awful in total defense, things aren’t going so well for this team in the early going. They are currently 24th defending the pass, and a surprising 27th against the run this season, and with the Bears coming in, things don’t look to be improving.
The Bears are slight underdogs in the money line for this game and I think they have the value. Even though they have been bad against the run, Stephen Paea looks to be a go this week after not playing since early this season, and he is one of the Bears’ best run stuffers. Add him to the Bears’ alread potent offense, and it spells trouble for Washington.
If Paea plays and is able to slow down Alfred Morris in this game, the Bears should have a great shot at the road upset here. Even with all the injuries on their defense, they have been bending and not breaking every time they do. Chicago is 6-3 SU in their last nine road games, and while both teams have been horrible ATS this season, one of them has to cover here. The Redskins were carrying a four game home winning streak SU into the season, but they have lost their last two home games SU, and they are only 5-5 SU at home under Griffin III. For my NFL picks, I’m taking the Bears on the money line.
My Pick: Bears +105 @ Will Hill
The one thing that will help your public betting percentage is getting a win on Monday night against a very good team, and that’s exactly what Phillip Rivers and the Chargers did this past week in beating the Colts. However this week they have to go on the road all the way to Jacksonville, and the NFL Odds are drastically overvaluing the Chargers here as -9 ½ road favorites this week.
I get that the Jags are bad, but right now with all of the injuries to San Diego, not only do the Jags have better skill players outside of Rivers, but they have the better defense, yet they are almost ten-point home underdogs. I am all over the Jags in this one, and I don’t see the losing by more than a TD against the soft Chargers.
It may be true that both teams are a bit overvalued here, but it comes down to, do you trust Rivers to travel 3000 miles, and get the win against any team? Teams traveling cross-country this season are only 3-4-1 ATS, and with no one to throw to, no run game, and little else but Antonio Gates on offense, can we trust Rivers? The answer is a resounding no. The Chargers will fall back down to earth, and I will gladly take almost ten points with an NFL home underdog for my sports picks. While San Diego will likely win the game outright, I doubt it’s by more than a TD.
My Pick: Chargers +9 ½ @ Matchbook