NFL Picks: Week 7 NFL Upsets

Nila Amerova

Friday, October 18, 2013 7:51 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 18, 2013 7:51 PM UTC

Join us as we pour through the sportsbooks looking for some good bets on bad teams in Week 7 NFL betting markets. Let's look at a few of the best upset betting lines.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons -6.5

Analysis: Both teams are struggling this season – the Buccaneers  (0-5, 0-2 away) are still searching for their first win on the season while the Falcons (1-4, 1-2 home) are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. Something is going to give here and bookies are giving the edge to the Falcons who are coming off a bye week and have home ground advantage against the cupcake-throwing Buccaneers. Most likely they are right and the Falcons are the correct pick to make in the straight up win market. Question is can the Buccaneers cover as the 6.5-point dogs? Three of their last five games were decided by less than a touchdown and the Falcons have played their opponents rather close as well so a case can be made for another narrow result. In our opinion therefore the good sports pick is the Buccaneers to beat the spread.

NFL Picks: Falcons to win straight up, Buccaneers to cover the NFL odds.


Houston Texans +6.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs -6.5

Analysis: Houston Texans may be 2-4 on the season but stats suggest they aren’t as bad as their record suggests. Something has to give soon for the unlucky Texans in order to turn things around. It just has to. Maybe here where they have better yards per passing and rushing attempt as well as yards per play compared to the lofty Chiefs. Could those stats deliver a much-needed win?

Granted, they are struggling something awful to win games now and that’s what matters most in the end to football fans when they are making their picks. Hence the hefty odds as well for the upset win at +220 across sportsbooks. And it doesn’t help when Schaub seems to be losing confidence with each passing game either.

Kansas City Chiefs are doing remarkably well and they have maintained an undefeated record in six games. Life is good in Kansas City indeed. It’s clear also that the expectation is Kansas City will win this game outright. But can they really go seven in a row? Are they that good? Aren’t they being overrated just a little bit?

To put it another way, streaks inevitably end. And sometimes they end in the most unlikely games. Call it a hunch but this game could be the game that sees KC crash down to earth with a gentle thud. So yes we’re going out on a limb with a pick on the Texans.  

NFL Picks: Texans to win straight up


Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New York Giants -3.5

Analysis: Now, at first glance this market might look like a trap. After all, the hapless Giants are desperately seeking their first win on the season having lost six in a row for one of the worst starts ever. So how can they be the 3.5-point faves on the spread or, for that matter, the -180 favourites to win straight up? Well two reasons: a) as mentioned above in the previous game analysis between Houston and KC, streaks (good or bad) inevitably end. It’s the Law of Averages; and b) Minnesota Vikings are just as bad this season, if not worse. To put it another way, betting on the Giants here is really a pick against the Vikings. Does that make sense?

NFL Picks: Giants to win straight up and cover.


San Diego Chargers -7.0 @ Jacksonville Jaguars +7.0

Analysis: Jaguars are winless on the season and desperate for a win but ending that streak against San Diego Chargers is a bit of stretch when the Chargers are after handing Andrew Luck a convincing defeat last week and brimming with confidence. True the Chargers aren’t the most convincing on the road however having only won 1-2 away but you have to believe they can beat a struggling Jacksonville even on the road, right? More likely than not the Chargers will win this game but the question is though can they cover? When Chargers defense struggles on the road it’s possible they won’t. That’s why we quite fancy the Jaguars as our value NFL pick to cover.

NFL Free Picks: Chargers to win straight up, Jaguars to cover. 

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