It’s that time once again. It’s Sunday and my player props are hot off the press. I have three more guys that I feel have a lot of value this week, so follow along as I have two, player performance, and one touchdown prop for you in the Week 7 NFL Odds. All of these are courtesy of Bet365.
The Bengals head out on the road into the northern U.S to play the Lions this week, and while I think the Bengals have a great shot at covering as slight underdogs this week, I love the odds for their young running back this week even more. Gio Bernard has come on very strong this season and is quickly locking down the running back job for not only this season, but the future as well.
This week at Bet365, Bernard’s yards total is only 78.5, and if he receives the touches he did last week, I think he can easily eclipse this total. Bernard saw the ball over 20 times last week rushing and receiving and he only needs 40 yards of each in this game to reach those numbers. Bernard is averaging 4 yards per carry this season, and against a soft Lions defense, I see him having a really nice day. Even after getting 100 yards from scrimmage last week, Bernard is slightly undervalued here.
My Pick: Gio Bernard ‘Over’ 78.5 total yards (-120)
Another guy who I love the total with this week is Trent Richardson who plays this evening against the Broncos. His rushing yards total for this game is only 57.5 points, but I like the under instead this week. The Colts are going to try and run the ball, this much is evident, however I think the Colts will end up having to throw the ball early and often to keep up with Peyton Manning.
Manning was probably somewhat insulted by Jim Irsay’s comments, and I think he is going to treat this like the Broncos’ Week 1 game against the Ravens. He is going to try and destroy his old team, and Richardson likely won’t have more than 12-14 rushing attempts. He may get some yards through the air as well, but I doubt he gets above 57 yards rushing. He hasn’t been that great this season to begin with.
My Pick: Trent Richardson ‘Under’ 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mike Tolbert has been good this season as a goal line and change up back for the Panthers, and after finding the end zone last week, his touchdown price this week at home against the Rams is +225. This is simply too much value to overlook. Not only will he get calls in the redzone this week, but the Rams have been awful this season against the run. Even though the Rams played well overall on defense last week, they still gave up 153 yards rushing in a game where they were blowing out the Texans.
St. Louis has already given up seven touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, and even with DeAngelo Williams playing well, he does not get the looks at the goal line. For our NFL picks, the price for Tolbert is a long shot, but he has a ton of value at home against the 30th ranked run defense in the NFL.
My Pick: Mike Tolbert TD Scored (+225)