I have two plays that I have had a close eye on since Sunday.
Chicago heads into the swamp that is Washington, DC this Sunday to face Robert Griffin III and the Redskins, and the NFL Odds are just slightly in favor of the Skins at -1, with a total right at 50 points. Washington got blown up by the Cowboys on the road last week, while the Bears were enjoying a mini bye week after beating up on another NFC East team, the hopeless Giants. Now as underdogs on the road in DC this weekend, I see the Bears having some value coming off the long week.
The Redskins’ offense has been looking progressively better throughout the season, but the Bears’ defense has still been playing well against the pass. The run defense for Chicago has been a different story. They are basically putting practice squad players out there right now with how many defensive lineman they have banged up. With the injuries to Henry Melton and Nate Collins, Corey Wootton has had to slide over to tackle, which is not his natural position. Lucky for Chicago, Stephen Paea returned to practice this week, and he is their only real defensive threat against the run right now.
If Paea plays and is able to slow down Alfred Morris in this game, the Bears should have a great shot at the road upset here. Even with all the injuries on their defense, they have been bending and not breaking every time they do. Chicago is 6-3 SU in their last nine road games, and while both teams have been horrible ATS this season, one of them has to cover here. The Redskins were carrying a four game home winning streak SU into the season, but they have lost their last two home games SU, and they are only 5-5 SU at home under Griffin III. I’m taking the Bears on the money line for my free pick.
My Pick: Bears +105 @ Will Hill
Chargers vs. Jaguars
I think we can honestly say that both teams may be slightly overvalued in this game in the eyes of the public. San Diego put up a great game and win against the Colts on Monday night, while the Jaguars where only down 1 point at half time against the Broncos, the smallest margin anyone has played them to in the first half of a game this season.
Some sportsbooks have this line at +7 ½ Jacksonville, but books like Pinnacle and Bovada have the Jags at +9 and -130. Even with the chalk, I think the Jags have great value as home underdogs in this game. The Chargers are a different team when playing on the road than they are at home, and the gap might grow even further now that they have to travel 3000 miles for this game.
If Cecil Shorts plays in this game for the Jags, I am liking this play even more for my NFL picks. With Chad Henne in the starting role for Jacksonville, their offense is no longer one of the worst in the NFL. As it currently stands, the Jags have more playmakers on offense than the Chargers do outside of Phillip Rivers, plus their defense might be as good or better than San Diego’s. The Chargers are slightly overvalued here, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them take a loss here ATS, and maybe even SU in things to really wrong in northern Florida this weekend.
My Pick: Jaguars +9 ½ @ Will Hill[gameodds]16/226968/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]