NFL Picks Week 7: Largest Totals & How to Place Your Bets

Matthew Jordan

Friday, October 17, 2014 7:52 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 17, 2014 7:52 PM UTC

It was a mediocre Week 6 on the largest spread picks as mine finished 2-2. Perhaps I should lean 'over' more as teams combined for 4,250 points through Week 6, the  most ever at that point. Here are the Pinnacle highest Week 7 totals on NFL odds.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (50.5 at sportsbooks)
No weather concerns here with the game in the dome. Cincinnati had one of the NFL's top defenses in 2013 and was expected to again this year despite the loss of highly respected coordinator Mike Zimmer. That unit looked the part with Cincinnati starting 3-0, allowing an average of just 11 points per game. At the time that was No. 1 in the NFL. Then the team went on the bye and something went wrong. Cincinnati has allowed 80 combined points and 367 yards rushing the past two weeks in a loss to New England and tie against Carolina. The Panthers and Patriots converted more than 42 percent of their third-down conversions while the first three opponents were around 31 percent. The Bengals also aren't getting to the QB. Now Cincinnati faces the league's leading passer in Andrew Luck. Indy has won four straight games and Luck has thrown for at least 312 yards in all four, with at least three TD passes in three of them. The Indy defense is nothing special but won't have to worry about star Cincinnati receiver A.J. Green, who will miss a second straight week with a toe injury.

NFL free pick: 'Over.' It has hit on in seven of the Colts' past eight games overall. The 'over' has hit in Cincinnati's past six October matchups, making the 'Over' the best choice for your NFL picks.

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Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (50 on NFL odds)
This game also had one of the largest spreads of Week 7, and I leaned Packers in that story. It's moderately surprising this has the second-highest total of any game. The weather at Lambeau doesn't look too bad, though, with temperatures in the low 50s and 30 percent chance of rain. Sometimes at this point in the season it's already a frozen tundra. Carolina had the NFL's second-best defense behind Seattle last season but has fallen off a cliff in 2014, ranking No. 28 in total defense and 24th in points (26.2 ppg). The offense still isn't all that explosive. This total is largely based on the Packers, who have won three straight games and averaged 35.7 points in that stretch. Aaron Rodgers has played like an MVP, topped off by last week's last-minute drive down the field to beat Miami. It will be interesting to see how Carolina attacks the Green Bay defense as it ranks No. 5 in passing but last against the rush. The Panthers prefer to run the ball but haven't had much success this year because of injuries at tailback and an iffy offensive line. Cam Newton might have to do it all again.

NFL free pick: 'Over.' It has hit in Carolina's past four overall at online sportsbooks and in five of Green Bay's past six.

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San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (49 on NFL odds)
The best matchup on paper in Week 7 closes out Sunday's action with a potential Super Bowl preview between the 49ers and Broncos. Peyton Manning needs three touchdown passes to break Brett Favre's career NFL record of 508. You can also find a prop on which week Manning does it: This week is the favorite, listed at NFL odds of -190. Next week against the Chargers is +125. Manning has 84 games of at least three TD throws. Four of those have come in five games this season. The Niners have the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL and you can count on one hand the number of QBs who have thrown for three against them under Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers will be without Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis, who hurt his toe in Monday's win at St. Louis. Playing on a short week won't help the San Francisco defense, either. There's no doubt in my mind what San Francisco will try to do here: Run the ball down the Broncos' throats with Frank Gore and chew up clock to keep Manning off the field. You know, things teams in college football used to do before scoring 50 points a game. The weather won't be a factor at all as it will be beautiful in Denver.

NFL free pick: 'Over.' It has hit in 10 of Denver's past 12 at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The 'over' is also 5-1 in the Niners' past six after scoring at least 30 points in their previous game. 

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Also review our writeup on Week 7's Largest Spreads & How to Bet Them

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