SBR's Peter Loshak shares his week 7 betting parlay, here he'll breakdown the public vs. sharp action in search of betting value to generate 4 plays worth adding to your NFL picks.
Cincinnati, Denver and Green Bay, 3 of the most profitable NFL teams to have bet on so far this season, with a combined YTD ATS record of 14-3-1, all have a bye week in NFL Week 7. The main impact of that so far for the sportsbooks has been significantly reduced teaser betting volume.
The public has still loaded up on a few sides this week though, in particular the Miami Dolphins, at home after a huge improvement in their first game after their recent coaching change, and the Arizona Cardinals, coming off a loss, and playing at home against the currently-iffy Baltimore Ravens in the Monday Night Football game.
The sharp action backed Miami in a big way last week, and although they have not yet come in on Miami again this week yet, they definitely have also not as yet gone against that big public action and taken the Houston Texans as an underdog.
The Monday night game though, is a different story. That game has a clear public/sharp split shaping up, with significant sharp money coming in on the Baltimore Ravens as a big road underdog, despite their clear issues in both their receiving corps and secondary.
The biggest sharp side of the week so far though, appears to be the Detroit Lions, at home as a small underdog against the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions got their first straight-up win of the season last week, but still lost by a half-point ATS on their closing spread, dropping them to a terrible 1-5 ATS overall on the year. But the sharp money is not fazed by that, and came in strong on Detroit, taking them at +3 as well as on their money line when it was around +120. Those NFL odds have dropped since opening, in response to that sharp action.
Week 7 also features the New York Jets at the New England Patriots, which is always an interesting matchup from a handicapping perspective. The Jets are an excellent team this year, and have covered 4 out of their 5 spreads so far, but they are still a big underdog against the Pats, who have also been profitable so far this year at 3-2 ATS. Noteworthy respectable money came in on both the Jets and the Under, while the public is clearly favoring both the Pats and the Over.
In my parlay this week for the Pete’s Parlay Show, I included two money line picks and two underdog spread NFL picks, one of which also reportedly took notable sharp action during the week.
4-Plays Parlay NFL Picks: Rams -290 / Buccaneers +3 (+105) / Cowboys +3.5 (-110) / Cardinals -375