NFL Picks: Week 6 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 8, 2013 1:19 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2013 1:19 PM UTC

While we're waiting for Week 6 of the NFL regular season to fully get underway, let's take a quick look at some games that might be worth your betting dollar.

Follow our week-by-week NFL odds coverage and check out our NFL Week 6 Betting Odds Report!

I got back on the winning track with the Colts and Cardinals winning outright to give me a positive 7-6-1 record. Now it is time to start building momentum and victories.

This is No Value Pick, But It Should Still Win

Denver opened as a 28-point favorite against Jacksonville playing at home. According to The Gold Sheet, the sports betting publication that has been tracking point spreads since the 1950s, that number ties the highest spread of all time, set by the Baltimore Colts over the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966. 

It seems ludicrous to give this many points and it might be, but two sets of NFL power ratings I have show the Denver at -31 and -32, which at least in mind my mind, provides value.

In trying to understand the betting odds, Denver players are not going to care about the point spread, but it will be impossible to hide from it given the size. As hyper-competitive as Peyton Manning is, he will not want his team to let up against such a clearly inferior foe.

Jacksonville has all the makings of a 0-16 team.


NFL Pick: Bet the Broncos -26.5 (!) on the point spread, at Ladbrokes


Kansas City comes up short

The Chiefs are a remarkable 5-0 after a 2-14 campaign and sportsbooks setting the NFL odds are playing into public opinion and have made Kansas City a double digit betting choice.

While the logic seems in place, I offer points to the contrary. Oakland is still a below average football team, but with Terrelle Pryor in the lineup, he gives the Raiders a chance for hope.

As mentioned previously, Oakland is low on overall talent, but second-year head coach Dennis Allen has this team playing harder and much of last year’s apathy has been replaced by contagious effort.

No doubt Kansas City has better players up and down the roster, but the Chiefs 25.6 scoring average is nearly four less than what their opponents have allowed to date.

Oakland has a metric called “explosive” plays (pass plays of 16 yards or more and runs of 12 or more), which is the handiwork of Coach Allen. Thus far, the Raiders have 40 and surrendered 38. With a 7-0 ATS mark at Arrowhead since 2006, I’ll take the digits as one of my sports picks.


NFL Pick: Take the Raiders, plus the points, +9 available at William Hill


Lions to cover the short number

The two takeaways from Detroit’s defeat at Green Bay are, one, they REALLY need Calvin Johnson in the lineup and second, their defense is better than last year, if not completely consistent.

With Cleveland having to go back to Brandon Weeden at quarterback, this helps the Lions, as he is not the playmaker Brian Hoyer was and the Detroit pass rush has a more stationary figure they can reach. The Lions defense was very commendable most of the game against the Packers, supplying tight coverage until the latter stages of the game when Rodgers made ‘perfect’ throws.

Being among those NFL football handicappers who believe in the right strong angle, even I have a hard time explaining taking a team which is 6-20 ATS as a road favorite, nevertheless, the Lions have the vastly superior quarterback and running back with Reggie Bush and I will use them with one of my NFL picks.


NFL Pick: Play the Detroit Lions -2.5 on the spread, priced at -120 at Bet365

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