NFL Picks: Week 6 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 5:19 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 5:19 PM UTC

Let’s delve into the NFL picks this week that have the best value. In the last couple of weeks I’ve had a harder time finding three games that jumped off the page, not so this week.

In a matter of minutes I was able to find what I thought was a trio winners to beat the sportsbooks against the NFL odds.


Denver Should Fly by the Jets with Ease
You do not have to be a NFL football handicapper to understand Denver was more than deserving to be to rise from -7 to at least -8 as a favorite on the road over the New York Jets. Anyone making sports picks understands the value difference along between Peyton Manning vs. Geno Smith and or Michael Vick is worth close to 10 points against the spread.

While Gang Green has the No.6 total defense, they are placed in poor field positions spot by the offense and the secondary is beatable by teams with above average receivers and a quarterback that gets them the ball like Denver has. This is why the Flyboys are allowing 25.4 points a game and rank an abhorrent 30th in the NFL in yards per point.

No question this could be a flat spot for the Broncos with San Francisco, San Diego and New England next of the schedule, but I think they do enough and move to 18-6 ATS as  favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

NFL Pick: Denver -8

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Green Bay Sends Miami Packing
The Packers offense has looked more like its old self the last couple weeks with Aaron Rodgers building trust with certain players and using them more.

Miami’s offense played very well in London against Oakland in scoring 38 points, but I’m not sure that proved much other than cementing the Raiders really stink. While Ryan Tannehill can get hot from time to time, he needs a running game to be an effective passer.

In this matchup I can see Rodgers distributing the ball around in the same manner Alex Smith of Kansas City did when they whipped Miami 34-15 a few weeks ago, which sets up Eddie Lacy and other running backs to gash the Dolphins defensive front for chunks of yards.

One last factor to ponder when reviewing the betting odds, just once this season has Miami had less than two turnovers in a game, with Green Bay having forced at least one miscue in each outing and seven in the past three contests. With one of my value NFL picks, I’ll pick the Pack.

NFL Pick: Green Bay -3 at 5Dimes

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Giants Play Big in Philly
Count me among those who though the New York Giants were in for another losing season after a 0-2 start. But like flipping the light switch, Tom Coughlin told his team to stop worrying about every detail of every scheme and follow the game plan and just play hard.

The Giants took his words to heart and are 3-0 SU and ATS since heading to Philadelphia.

Why I like the underdog Giants here is they have an overall defensive edge and between lineman Jean-Pierre Paul and their two cornerbacks, they can disrupt the Philadelphia offense, which despite its points is not hitting on all cylinders.

Eli Manning has grown comfortable in the new offense and faces the Eagles No. 28 defense. I’m grabbing the points with the G-Men who are 14-4 ATS in road games vs. passing defenses allowing 260 or more yards.

NFL Pick: N.Y. Giants +3

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