NFL Picks: Week 6 Opening Odds & Early Betting Predictions

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 15, 2015 12:25 PM GMT

Join as we work our way through the serving of NFL matchups in week 6, analyzing the early NFL odds and their value towards your NFL picks.

Week 6 NFL Odds and Preview
Week 6 serves up 14 matchups for your NFL betting thrills. Table 1 breaks down the opening NFL odds, from the spread to the straight up win and total odds. Below we analyse these odds so you can know where to place your NFL picks and look at home these markets are taking shape.

Table 1: Opening NFL Odds

 

Matchups To Spot On Your NFL Picks
Patriots vs. Colts

The Must-See matchup, arguably, is the clash between the Patriots and Colts in week 6 NFL betting, marking the reprisal of the AFC Championship game that descended into so much controversy, gave way to angst amongst NFL betting fans and served up one of the most sensational scandals in the history of the game – the cleverly christened Deflate-gate – tainting with it the reputations of the most successful duo in the game: Belichick and Brady.

As a result of that scandal, Tom Brady and Company are playing with a chip on their shoulders this season. And if the first four games were any indication, the Colts have cause for concern. Deflated balls, over-inflated balls, or perfectly inflated balls, Tom Brady can play football. End of.

Anybody that doubts that isn’t worth his salt in professional football. Through four games, Brady has 11 TDs, ZERO INT and 11 sacks, along with 1,387 yards accounted for and a league-leading 121.5 QBR.  Compared to Andrew Luck, whose accounts in the first three games of the season put him at the bottom of the pile in almost every single category.

Predictably, the NFL betting line has opened with the Patriots as the 7-point road faves. It’s also not surprising that the line has gone up since early doors to 7.5-points and 8-points, depending on your sportsbook of choice. That’s down to the way the Patriots have played through four games and the way the Colts have struggled through their first five games despite pulling off a 3-2 SU record. It’s also partly down to the questionable status of Andrew Luck for this happy deflate-gate reunion. If the Patriots are your choice NFL pick, take the reasonable spread now before it swells higher in proportion to the action coming down the wire or in direct reaction to potential news of Luck sitting out the game after all.

 

Surprising Home Faves? Lions, Vikings & Titans
Week 6’s matchups serve up several surprising home faves in one way or another. For instance, the winless Detroit Lions (0-5SU and 1-4 ATS) opened as the 2.5-point home chalk against the spread. Since, they’ve moved up to 3-points to the good at home across most sports betting platforms. 

The Lions are wholly off form and color this season and last week Matthew Stafford was benched. How they come off as being the field-goal faves is rather surprising. Clearly, the odds makers aren’t sold on the Chicago Bears, despite a two-game winning streak at the expense of the Raiders and Chiefs, the latter of which was a road win. We all know how noisy and intimidating Arrowhead can be, so perhaps the odds makers are devaluing the Bears a touch unfairly.

The Vikings opened as the significant 4.5-point home faves against the 1-4 SU Chiefs, who are fast losing the plot behind a four-game losing streak. That said, it’s worth noting the NFL betting line has been coming down since early doors. NFL bettors can find it as low as 3.5-points at bet365 for example, amongst others.

Finally, the Titans entered week 6 as the nominal 2.5-point home chalk. That line has moved up by half-a-point already, to a field-goal advantage despite the fact that the Titans are coming off their third straight loss of the season against the Bills in week 5 NFL betting. Clearly, the public is buying what the Titans are selling. They did come close to upending the Colts in a 35-33 loss, not to mention they played a tough Bills team close.

By contrast, few are buying what the Dolphins are selling right now. After being so hyped up in the preseason, to disappoint through the first quarter of the season so that the organisation is left with nothing but to give Joe Philbin his pink slip and launch a complete shakedown has left NFL bettors a little wary of the Dolphins on the NFL betting floor. It’s yet to be seen what sort of team interim Miami coach rolls out.

 

Hot Home Faves: Packers, Seahawks & Jets
Finally, it’s no surprise that the Green Bay Packers are the whopping 9.5-point home chalk in their upcoming clash with the Chargers at Lambeau. The Packers are 5-0 SU and ATS with an 11.2-point winning margin. Those NFL bettors looking to back the Packers should jump on the spread quickly before it swells upwards of 11 points. It’s already moved up to 10-points at most sportsbooks.

The Seahawks have a commanding home record, which partly explains their firm opening price of 5.5-points across sports betting shops. However, they’ve moved up to 7-to-7.5-points already. That it comes at the expense of an undefeated Panthers side (4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with a 9.2 winning margin) is somewhat of a surprise. Keep in mind, this is a reprisal of the NFC divisional showdown of the playoffs last season. The Carolina Panthers must have a score to settle here. Then the way the Seahawks are playing this season Cam Newton and the Panthers may well fancy their chances of masterminding the upset.

The Jets enter week 6 as the whopping 5.5-point favorites at the expense of the Washington Redskins. That NFL betting line is steadily moving up with the Jets trading as 7-point favorites at some sports betting exchanges. On one hand, the Jets are 3-1 SU and ATS with a 10-point winning margin and deserve to be the faves at home. The question is whether they merit so many points to lay. Last year’s Redskins were bad. Then such a line would have made complete sense. This year, the Redskins aren’t half bad at all and their defense is amongst the better defenses in the league. The Redskins are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS with a nominal 1.2-point losing margin. They are coming off a commendable account against the Falcons, in which they rallied to tie the game and force overtime. Granted Kirk Cousins was intercepted for the Atlanta game-winning touchdown.