All of these NFL Picks are six-point teasers.
Bears & Colts
The Bears play host to the Giants on Thursday night, and the NFL Odds are finally starting to settle down to -7 in favor of the Bears. Including the Bears in our teaser would move them down to -1, which I believe is the safest wager for them tonight. Thursday games have been sloppy this season, and with the Giants’ lack of a defense or running game, I think Chicago will be able to come away with a victory one way or another.
While the Bears are kicking off Week 6, the Colts and Chargers are completing it from San Diego this week. The Colts are -1 favorites, but I am crossing zero to make them +5 this along with the Bears at -1. The Colts are too balanced on all sides of the ball to lose this game, especially by more than five points. I expect both Trent Richardson and Andrew Luck to have outstanding games, I the Colts to get the win.
My Pick: 2-team teaser Bears -1 & Colts +5
Panthers & Redskins
It’s underdog city this week for the rest of my teasers, and these two are a prime example of road teaser-value. The Panthers are on the road this week in Minnesota, but they are playing Matt Cassel, the guy who is starting because Christian Ponder is awful. The Vikings’ defense is pretty bad too, and if Cam Newton can move the ball down field through the air, they should be able to win this game, let alone cover +8 ½. In the battle of the 30th ranked Panthers pass offense against the 29th ranked Vikings pass defense; someone has to win. I think it will be Carolina.
The Skins are in primetime off of their bye week, and I think that extra week of preparation and film study is going to do Robert Griffin III some real good. The Skins defense already sucks, and I expect Tony Romo to destroy it, but I think this week the Skins will have enough on both ends to cover +12 points. The Cowboys are too vulnerable through the air, and Alfred Morris is healthy for this game. He ran for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in two games last season against Dallas.
My Pick: Panthers +8 ½ & Redskins +12
Bengals & Saints
These two were kind of my last choices, but I still think there is value here. The Bengals are coming off of a huge win, and even though Andy Dalton has not been great, the Bengals are in Buffalo this week against Thad Lewis, who has started approximately one game in his short NFL career. The Bengals are going to swarm all over the young and inexperienced quarterback, and Cincinnati should have Leon Hall back as well. Teasing them to -1 should have value.
The Saints are still +2 ½ underdogs at sportsbooks like 5Dimes and Heritage, and teasing them to +8 ½ looks like it’s valuable. The Saints’ defense has been proving themselves time and again, while the Pats have struggled recently. Even with the likely return of Rob Gronkowski in this game, I think Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham and the rest of the Saints will be able to cover +8 ½, even if they lose this game on the road.
My Pick: Bengals -1 & Saints +8 ½
Browns & Cardinals
This one is boom or bust, so to be honest I can believe if you’re skeptical. But let’s examine these two a bit closer. The Browns play host to the Lions this week, who are dealing with their best player’s knee problems. Calvin Johnson will reportedly not practice at all this week, and he is pretty much a game time decision. Even with Brandon Weeden starting for Cleveland, we all saw what the bad Packers’ defense did to the Megatron-less Lions last week, and dare I say it, but the Browns have a better defense than the Packers. Even if Johnson plays, Joe Haden Island is lonely this time of year, and Johnson at less than 100% might be stranded. Without him, the Browns should cover their teaser odds of +8 ½ nicely.
The Cards are on the road in San Francisco, and at +11 ½, Arizona isn’t even one of the two biggest underdogs this week. With all the points being thrown around, I think the sportsbooks have underrated the Cards just a little here. Their defense is solid, and I think they will give the banged up Niners some issues. While they won’t be able to score very much, if they can keep the 49ers less than 27 points, I think they have a great shot at covering in this teaser. +17 ½ on the NFL odds board is a ton of points for a divisional game.
My Pick: Browns +8 ½ & Cardinals