NFL Week 6: Swinger's Picks
Swinger's Record (6-9, -16.55 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*
I usually begin by grousing about the bad news from the week before. I have often stated, as gamblers we expect to win so when we lose it always come as some sort of shock despite our familiarity with being shocked 45% of the time if we're lucky and 40% of the time if we're very good.
But last week I loaded up a 5 unit max play on the Baltimore Ravens +3 (-120) and then went back to the well to bet them +125 on the money line for 3 units. Ta Daaaaaa, the Ravens made me look very smart when they upended the Dolphins 26-23 in Miami and I got a nice jump on the day . Unfortunately the other two plays did not fare as well when we dropped 4 units in Under on the Chiefs/Titans game and watched helplessly as the Panthers (-125 on the ML) fell to the Cardinals 22-6 (notice how I employ the pronoun we when a play flames, as in we are all in this together but deftly transition to I or me when it wins, as in I am solely responsible for your good fortune and fat bankroll so bow to me, bow I say!).
Enough of this screwin' around, it's time to pick some winners. Let's go!
Slight lean here on the Bucs even as the line is tilting furiously in Philly's favor. The Bucs have had two weeks to prepare thanks to their bye last week while Philadelphia is on the road for the third consecutive week after thumping the woeful Giants. I realize Tampa Bay is 0-4 but their defense is universally acknowledged as a solid top ten group but their offense has sputtered under the ignominious leadership of Josh Freeman, supplanted last time out by rookie Mike Glennon. Glennon may have wilted down the stretch against a stout Cardinals defense but he will face no such problem with the Eagles.
Watch Doug Martin shred the Philly front four which will allow Glennon extra time when the Bucs look to pass. Play action should freeze the Eagles and allow the Bucs to do something they haven't done much of this season - score!
Play the Bucs +3 ½ (-135 buying half a point) for 2 units at Bet365.com.
I'm going to back the World Champs for second consecutive week. They got it done on the road against the Fish last week as three point underdogs in NFL odds and will be standing a foot taller at home as they always do. The Packers Clay Matthews is sidelined for a month and the Green Bay defense, though improved, is still far from stout.
Watch Flacco rekindle some of that old magic against a pedestrian secondary while Ray Rice will be the Swiss Army knife that will carve up yards on the ground and through the air.
Play Baltimore +3 (-120) for 3 units at WilliamHill.com.
The Rams are a bad team masquerading as mediocre while the Texans are actually a good team impersonating as a foul squad. But those misconceptions will be remedied on Sunday when the Texans lay a whole lotta whoop ass on the visitors from St. Louis.
Houston is superior in all phases of the game and Matt Schaub will get not just an opportunity but the opportunity to shake off that funk he's been in and get his reputation back. As confident as I am I never lay a hook on a 3, 4 or 7 in the NFL so therefore I will buy it.
Play the Texans -7 (-120 buying a half point) for 4 units at Bet365.com.
The Woodman's Corner (2-3, -1.3 units) - Guest Handicapper
The Woodman cashed last week with a big underdog and comes right back with the same formula, advising his disciples to play the Tennessee Titans +13 at Bet365.com