NFL Picks: Week 6 Advanced Lines From Westgate Las Vegas

Kevin Stott

Friday, October 9, 2015 6:01 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 6:01 PM GMT

Here are the Advanced Lines for NFL Week 6,sometimes referred to as the Early Lines or Look-ahead Lines, fresh from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City.

Thursday, October 15, 2015
 

Atlanta Falcons -2½ vs. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; at Eagles Sunday) and veteran QB Drew Brees (Shoulder) welcome the Atlanta Falcons (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS; vs. Redskins Sunday) and QB Matt Ryan (32-28 ATS on Road) to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans next Sunday in this intriguing Week 6 showdown in the suddenly relevant NFC South. With RB Devonta Freeman who had back-to-back 3-TD rushing games in Weeks 3-4 and WR Julio Jones, first-year Head Coach Dan Quinn has something really special going as the undefeated start both SU and ATS for the Dirty Birds shows. Last year in this series, the Falcons won outright and covered against the Saints at Home in Week 1 as 3-point underdogs, 37-34, while here at the Superdome, Atlanta also won and covered as the underdog (+6), rolling over New Orleans, 30-14 in Week 16. The Falcons are 3-0 ATS in the L3 meetings in this AFC South series but 1-3 ATS L4 at New Orleans, the lone cover coming in that aforementioned meeting in The Big Easy last season.
NFL Pick: Falcons -2½.

 

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Denver Broncos -5½ vs. Cleveland Browns
FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland is the site of this Week 6 AFC inter-divisional tilt between the host Cleveland Browns (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS; at Ravens on Sunday) and QB Peyton Manning (74-58-5 ATS on Road) and the Denver Broncos (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS; at Raiders on Sunday) in what will be a much more important game for Head Coach Mike Pettine and the Browns, either sitting at 1-4 or 2-3. The last meeting between these two was in 2012 in Denver where the Broncos won and covered as 10-point favorites, 34-12, while the last meeting here in Cleveland, Denver also won and (barely) covered, this time as 3-point favorites, 34-30 in 2008. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS the L6 against the Browns and Denver has one of the best D’s in the league right now (NFL-leading 18 sacks, #1 Total Yards, #1 Passing D).
NFL Pick: Broncos -5½

 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills -1½
What a great game on the Week 6 schedule. The Cincinnati Bengals (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, vs. Seahawks on Sunday) head north to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo to face the QB Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS; at Titans on Sunday) next weekend in the Week 6 AFC inter-divisional affair which looks like it will be much more important for new Bills Head Coach Rex Ryan and his squad. The last time these two met here in Buffalo was in 2013 where the Bengals won outright, 27-24 as 5½-point chalks. Despite that result in the last meeting in this series, the Bills are 10-2 ATS the L12 against Cincinnati and 6-2 the L8 against the Bengals here at Home at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Heavy lean to the cats from Ohio.

 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings -2½
Head Coach Andy Reid (20-17 ATS) and the Kansas City Chiefs (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; vs. Bears on Sunday) head to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis next Sunday afternoon to dance with the host Minnesota Vikings (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS; Open Date) in this inter-conference affair which seems like it might be more important to Kansas City, especially should the Chiefs lose to Chicago in Week 5. The last time these two met was in 2011 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City where the Chiefs won and covered as 3-point favorites, 22-17, while the last meeting here in the Land of 10,000 Lakes was way back in 2003 at the Hubert H. Humphrey Dome where the Purple People Eaters covered and rolled to an easy 45-20 victory. The Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS the L5 in this series. If anything here, the Under seems worth a look when the Total opens although the Chiefs Overs were 4-0 and Vikings Unders were 4-0 heading into Week 5.

 

Houston Texans -2½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS; at Buccaneers on Sunday) and QB Blake Bortles (4-4-1 ATS vs. AFC South) welcome JJ Watt and the Houston Texans (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; vs. Colts on Thursday Night Football) to Everbank Field in Jacksonville for this Week 6 AFC South clash. Heading into Week 5 play, Jacksonville had scored an AFC-low 62 points. Last season when these two got together, the Texans won and covered as 7-point favorites, 27-13, while in Week 17, Houston won again (23-17), but the Jaguars covered the 9-point spread. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATs the L5 in the series although Jacksonville is 1-3 ATS the L4 here at Home.

 

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions -6½
The Chicago Bears (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; at Chiefs on Sunday) head to Ford Field next Sunday to face the Detroit Lions (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS; vs. Cardinals on Sunday) and a hobbled Matthew Stafford (17-22-1 ATS at Home) in this Week 6 NFC North affair which will probably doom the loser’s chances of making the Postseason...if either realistically had any in the first place. Last season, the Lions rolled to a 34-17 win in this game at Home, easily covering as 7-point favorites while in the return leg in Chicago, Detroit won 20-14, failing to cover as massive 10-point Road Chalks in the Windy City. The Lions are 5-1 ATS the L6 against the Bears and a perfect 5-0 ATS the L5 here in the Motor City, but those were a little bit stronger Lions teams back then and anything can happen here in this one, especially with mercurial Chicago QB Jay Cutler (23-27-1 ATS on Road) back for the Bears. A good line.

 

Washington Redskins vs. New York Jets -6
Back from London, well rested and off of an Open Date, the upstart New York Jets (3-1 SU; 3-1 ATS; Open Date) play host to the Washington Redskins (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS; at Falcons on Sunday) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford in this inter-conference affair which looks like it will be much more important to the visitors from the NFC who actually have a pulse this season. The last time these two played, the Jets smashed the Redskins in Landover, 34-19 covering easily as 3-point favorites in 2011, while the last meeting here in New Jersey was in 2007, where the Joe Gibbs coached Redskins won 23-20, but failed to cover as 3-point favorites, getting nipped by the Hook (½ point). The Jets have allowed an NFL-low 55 points heading into Week 5 play and will stay on top in that category with their Bye week in this current Week 5.

 

Arizona Cardinals -2½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Another big Michael Vick-influenced Point Spread here, with the visiting Arizona Cardinals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, at Lions on Sunday) and QB Carson Palmer (37-32-3 ATS on Road) installed as small favorites against the Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 2-0-2 ATS; at Chargers on Monday Night Football) here at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh a Week 6 inter-conference game next Sunday afternoon from the Steel City. The last time these time played was in 2011 in Glendale where the Steelers won and covered, 32-20, as 4-point favorites while the last meeting here in Pittsburgh was back in 2003 when we had more hair where Pittsburgh won 28-15. Note: Six of the L7 meetings in this series have been played outside of Pittsburgh—five in Arizona (3 at Sun Devil Stadium, 2 at Univerity of Phoenix Stadium) and once at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa in Super Bowl XLIII, won by the Steelers, 27-23 (Steelers -7). This could end up being an entertaining game and will could definitely hold some significance when (who makes the) Wild Card time rolls around later in the Regular Season.

 

Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans -1½
After an off week, the Miami Dolphins (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; Open Date) return from the United Kingdom and their loss to the Jets in London with a brand new Head Coach (Dan Campbell) and head to LP Field in Nashville to play the Tennessee Titans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Bills on Sunday) and Rookie QB Marcus Mariota in this inter-divisional Week 6 AFC meeting from the Volunteer State. The last time these two teams met was in 2012 in Miami (Gardens) where the Titans won and covered as 6½-point underdogs, while the last meeting here in Opryland in 2009, Tennessee won, 27-24, but failed to cover the 5-point spread as favorites in 2009. The Titans are 3-1 ATS the L4 vs the Dolphins here at Home at LP Field in Nashville.

 

Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks -7½
Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS; at Bengals on Sunday) welcome Cam Newton (18-15 ATS on Road) and the Carolina Panthers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS; Open Date) to CenturyLink Field in Seattle next Sunday afternoon in what looks to be a great NFC matchup and what actually could be a huge game for the host Seahawks who have been waiting for RB Marshawn Lynch to return to the fold healthy and start contributing. The last time these two sides met was in the second round of the NFC Playoffs last season here in the Emerald City where the Seahawks won and eliminated the Panthers, 31-17, narrowly covering as big, double-digit 13½-point chalks. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS the L5 vs. Carolina and Head Coach Ron Rivera (39-31-1 ATS), but this Seattle team has some serious OL problems, with three converted College DL trying to learn on the fly and provide pass protection in the NFL for scurried QB Wilson (8-12 ATS on Road). Carolina is exactly the type of team that can beat the Seahawks in Seattle, but the Panthers will be losing three Body Clock Hours traveling westward from EDT to PDT, but will have the marked advantage of coming off a Bye Week and having 13 Days Rest and all that Time to scheme for the Seahawks. It seems this one could go Under the posted Total with both sides scoring in the high teens. And, the Cats can pull off the upset here.

 

San Diego Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers -9
The Green Bay Packers (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, vs. Rams on Sunday) and QB Aaron Rodgers (36-18-3 ATS at Home) play host to Philip Rivers (38-38-2 ATS on Road) and the San Diego Chargers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS; vs. Steelers on Monday Night Football) in this promising inter-conference matchup from Lambeau Field in Green Bay next Sunday afternoon. The last meeting between these two teams was in 2011 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego where the Packers won and just covered, 45-38, as 5½-point favorites, while the last meeting here in Brown County in America’s Dairyland was in 2007 where Green Bay also won and also barely covered, beating San Diego, 31-21 as 6-point chalks. The Cheeseheads are a perfect 6-0 ATS the L6 in this series and always an automatic go-on here at Home.
NFL Pick: Packers -9

 

Baltimore Ravens -3 (-120) vs. San Francisco 49ers +3 Even
The Baltimore Ravens (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; vs. Browns on Sunday) head west to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara next Sunday afternoon in Week 6 play to dance with the San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; at Giants on Sunday Night Football) in this inter-conference affair from The City By The Bay. The last time these two met, the Ravens won, 16-6 in Baltimore in 2011 as 3-point favorites, while in the last meeting here in the Bay Area (Candlestick Park), the Ravens won 9-7, but failed to cover the 3½-point spread in 2007. So, just 38 total points in the L2 meetings—and two easy Unders—although these two seldom play. Baltimore will be traveling 3 Time Zones (EDT to PDT) and playing in PDT (Oakland, Denver) for the third time already this season, so some fatigue could be involved. San Francisco has scored the least points in the NFL (48) with almost all Colin Kaepernick drives this season resulting in Misery and Woe and the San Francisco Defense returning to the playing field. Baltimore is 3-1 ATS L4 vs. the 49ers but just 1-3 ATS L4 here in Frisco.
NFL Pick: Ravens -3 (-120)

 

New England Patriots -5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Indianapolis Colts (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS; at Texans on Thursday Night Football) as slight 2½-point favorites here over the New England Patriots (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS; at Cowboys on Sunday) in their NFL Games of the Year, out late every Spring—we tabbed taking the Super Bowl-champs and the 2½ points there here in this space—in this high-profile, primetime AFC showdown form Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis next Sunday night. The Patriots and QB Tom Brady (64-44-1 ATS on Road) and TE Rob Gronkowski have already put up 119 points in just three games, and are playing Fast and Mad, in the thick midst of some kind of Deflategate/Dynasty mash-up, Funk-mix where outscoring the weekly opponent is the preferred Modus Operandi. News out of Naptown on Thursday (Oct. 8) had Colts QB andrew Luck missing tonight’s AFC South showdown at Houston, so something may be more serious with Luck, or maybe Indianapolis Head Coach Chuck Pagano feels better resting the young Stanford product another week before this game. The last time these two played was that famous Deflategate AFC Championship Game in New England, where the Patriots corralled the Colts, 45-7, easily covering the 7-point spread. New England is 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. the Colts and 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings here in Indianapolis, dating back to the days when Peyton Manning was still the Colts QB. Expct this one to be taken off the Betting Board with the Luck uncertainty, and anyone taking the 2½ with the Patriots in the NFL Games of the Year marketplace is in an incredibly fantastic betting position. Tommy can you hear me?

 

Monday, October 19, 2015

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Philadelphia Eagles (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; vs.Saints on Sunday) welcome the New York Giants (2-2 SU; 3-1 ATS; vs. 49ers on Sunday Night Football) to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia to face Sam Bradford and the disappointing Eagles in this Week 6 Monday Night Football game from the City of Brotherly Love. The Eagles shut out the Giants, 27-0 in this meeting last season in Philly—also in Week 6—while Philadelphia also won and covered in Week 17 in East Rutherford, 34-26 in a Pick ‘Em situation. The Eagles are 3-1 ATS in the L4 meetings in this series against New York NFC and QB Eli Manning (51-40-2 on Road), but the G-Men are playing much better Defense now and are now feeling pretty good about themselves after stifling the Bills in Buffalo in Week 4. The Giants can win this game and both Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray (29 rushes, 47 yards, TD, 1.6 ypc) have been disappointing. Philadelphia Head Coach Chip Kelly (18-19 ATS) may be in some Hot Water soon if the Eagles don’t start winning, and the Week 4 Loss at Washington revealed much about this team, no disrespect to the Redskins. And to think Philadelphia was probably the most hyped-up team in the Preseason. It’s a good thing these teams play the games to actually see who’s really good. Again, the Giants can win this one.
NFL Pick: Giants +3 Even

 

NFL WEEK 6 OPEN DATES: Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL WEEK 6 ADVANCED LINE PICKS: Falcons -2½ over Saints; Broncos -5½ over Browns; Packers -9 over Chargers; Ravens -3 -120 over 49ers; Giants +3 Even over Eagles (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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