The Cowboys and Falcons pass defense cost me last week, leaving us at 5-5-1 ATS for the season. It is time to start using the contrarian thinking cap as opposed to traditional methods of betting the NFL odds.
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Indianapolis proving doubters wrong
After the Colts 11-5 uprising last season, the consensus was the NFL gods would balance the books and Indianapolis would have to face reality and NFL football handicappers everywhere were calling for this team to be about .500.
This might still be true, but Chuck Pagano’s team is 3-1 and giving no indication the past two weeks of receding. Next up for the Colts is 4-0 Seattle, who lived up to the NFL axiom of ‘find a way to win” in Houston and did.
While the Seahawks have many positive attributes under coach Peter Carroll, both their road wins and covers have included good fortune.
Andrew Luck and the Colts have only two turnovers this season, suffice to say Indy probably will not beat themselves and if they contain the Seattle running game, the pass defense can limit the Seahawks passing offense.
Seattle has won back-to-back road games once since 2005 and it will not do so at Indianapolis.
NFL Football Free Pick- Indianapolis +3
Desert birds hanging around and covering spreads
After a quarter of the season, Arizona is showing gumption and stayed in three games, winning twice. That is a tribute to Bruce Arians coaching up his team to keep fighting even when events appear unfavorable. Carson Palmer deserves props also, because it was his professional skills which allowed the Cardinals to win at Tampa Bay, by making plays when it counted.
Sportsbooks have Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite, yet they found ways to lose winnable games against Seattle and Buffalo and the Panthers have given away the most four quarter leads in the league since 2011.
The sampling is not large; nonetheless, Arians won tight games with the Colts last year and is beginning to do the same the Redbirds. Make this one of your NFL picks which has value, with coach Arians 7-0 ATS in home games for his career.
NFL Football Free Pick- Arizona + 2.5
Bolts will look to strike quickly in Oakland
First-year coach Mike McCoy’s offense has put the spring back in the step of Philip Rivers, with San Diego averaging 27 points a game. The Chargers offense should continue to be sharp against division rival Oakland, who is arguably one of the four-least talented teams in the NFL, besides Jacksonville.
Whether you are in a Survivor Pool making sports picks or betting the NFL odds, the Chargers have been gaining confidence and right now are less than a touchdown favorite to the Raiders, which is more than adequate value.
Terrelle Pryor figures to return for the Black and Silver, which cannot be said for the oft-injured Darrin McFadden. Hard to imagine San Diego scoring less than their average of 27 points and the Raiders climbing over 17 points without special teams or defense points. For good measure, the Super Chargers are 9-2 ATS at Oakland.
NFL Football Free Pick- San Diego -5.5