NFL Picks: Week 5 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 30, 2014 4:55 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 30, 2014 4:55 PM UTC

Not my best effort last week on NFL picks, but I feel strongly I can bounce right back against the NFL betting odds and make this a profitable week for readers and viewers.

Detroit is Calmer and Playing with More Confidence
First-year coach Jim Caldwell is to be saluted for how the Detroit Lions have started the season. In the off-season, he and his coaches had Matthew Stafford alter his throwing motion to be move over the top, which improved his accuracy and also helped eliminate all those sidearm throws down the field with nose of the ball up, which caused pass to float and be tipped or intercepted.

NFL football handicappers have seen another change, after being most one the most penalized teams the last several years, Detroit is showing more discipline and is 22nd at present time.

Though Buffalo probably has enough talent to make a run at the playoffs, quarterback EJ Manuel is not the answer at this time and neither will be Kyle Orton. With the Lions No. 1 in total defense, they bamboozle Buffalo.

Free NFL Pick: Detroit -7 at Bet365

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Atlanta Takes New Jersey by Storm
The Falcons were pathetic defensively last week in Minnesota. Against a rookie quarterback making his first start, they surrendered 558 yards of offense and were upset by the Vikings.

On the surface when you consider the Giants walloped Washington 45-13 on the road, naturally New York is the correct side for sports picks, right?

Well in Lee Corso “Not so fast my friend” fashion, this is the NFL and every week is different and I find Atlanta under coach Mike Smith is 17-8 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 ATS off any setback of 10 or more points. With the Falcons 5-1 ATS at the Giants, I have them beating the NFL odds for the cover.

Free NFL Pick: Atlanta +8 at 5Dimes

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Seattle Fly’s by Number
Washington’s problem is not the nickname; it’s the football team people are paying to watch. In a perfect scenario to prove this year will be different, before a national audience the Redskins gave less effort than the House and the Senate in being mashed by New York.

Logic would dictate the Jay Gruden’s squad with 10 days off and a chance for redemption on national cable playing at home against the Super Bowl champs is a perfect situation.

The problem is Seattle will come in completely rested off a bye week and the Seahawks players also know the bright lights will be shining. With the sportsbooks having Seattle as a touchdown road favorite, Pete Carroll and his staff already know because Washington hardly blitzed at all against Eli Manning, they will bring the house this week, leaving draws to Marshawn Lynch to work and getting the ball to Percy Harvin.

If Kirk Cousins had issues with the Giants defense, wait till he faces the Seahawks bunch. With Seattle 7-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 27 or more points a game, this is one-way action.

Free NFL Pick:- Seattle -7 at Bet365

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