NFL Picks on Week 5's Biggest Spreads

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, October 5, 2014 4:45 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 5, 2014 4:45 PM UTC

A solid 2-1 record in Week 4 on the biggest spread picks, hitting on the Colts at -7.5 against the Titans and the Buccaneers +7.5 at Pittsburgh. Missed on Jaguars +13.5 at the Chargers. Here are the Pinnacle top NFL spreads for Week 5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-10)
The Bucs were one of the surprise winners of Week 4 with an unlikely comeback win over the Steelers. Tampa scored a season-high 27 points with second-year QB Mike Glennon making his first start of the season and there's no question it's his job now, even when former No. 1 Josh McCown is fully healthy. That victory was a bit costly as the Bucs lost rookie star receiver Mike Evans for at least a few weeks with a groin injury. That ruins his Rookie of the Year chances. The Saints, meanwhile, just don't lose at home with Sean Payton on the sideline. All three losses this season have been on the road. New Orleans has won 18 straight at the Superdome if you throw out the 2012 season when Payton was suspended. These teams split two last season, with the Saints crushing the Bucs in New Orleans.

NFL Free Pick: New Orleans. Would hope this line drops to 9.5 but that's unlikely. The home team has covered five of the past six meetings.

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Probably the marquee matchup of the day as Arizona brings in the NFC's only unbeaten record. Both clubs come off a bye so are as about as healthy as one could hope. Denver is expected to welcome back starting linebacker Danny Trevathan, last season's leading tackler. He broke his leg early in training camp. Interesting Bovada special here on which player catches Peyton Manning's 500th career touchdown pass. I touched on that in my Week 5 QB specials prop story. Hint: initials are WW. The big story here is that Carson Palmer will sit again for Arizona as he continues to deal with a nerve problem. Drew Stanton will make his third straight start. He might not lose you a game, but he's not going to win one.

NFL Free Pick: Denver. The Broncos have covered six straight after a loss.

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins (+7.5)
This is the Monday night game and Seattle brings an impressive eight-game MNF winning streak into it. In fact, the Seahawks are 10-1 in prime-time games under Pete Carroll. They also come off a bye week, which should lessen any possible flat effort off that huge Week 3 overtime victory against Denver in a Super Bowl rematch. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has been very Jekyll and Hyde thus far. Two great games (one in relief) against pretty bad defenses in the Jaguars and Eagles. Then one horrific, turnover-filled effort in Week 4 at home against the New York Giants. Cousins now has 18 turnovers in 11 total games played in his young career. He's going to be hit or miss many weeks it appears.

NFL free pick: Washington by that half-point.

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St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
I previewed this game in depth earlier this week here on the site. At that point I liked the Eagles at 7 points but worried it might jump to 7.5. So far it hasn't, at least not at Pinnacle. Also when this was posted Monday, Rams coach Jeff Fisher was still saying that Shaun Hill would be his starting quarterback when healthy. Didn't believe him then and Fisher said  Austin Davis was his starter going forward on Wednesday. In two starts plus a half of relief behind Hill, Davis has thrown for 754 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. His 72.3 percent completion rate is first in the NFL. Too bad he has very little skill position talent around him. That's not a problem for the Eagles, who are likely to explode after being dominated in San Francisco last week. Take the Eagles with your Week 5 NFL Picks.

NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia at Pinnacle.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions (-7)
The top story line here is that Buffalo is going with Kyle Orton over E.J. Manuel at quarterback -- might Manuel's shot at becoming a full-time starter be over after just 14 games? It could be if Orton plays well. The Bills were just sold, meaning the new regime is likely to clean house and draft its own franchise QB. Too bad Buffalo stupidly traded its 2015 first-round pick to Cleveland for the right to draft Sammy Watkins, who has been somewhat disappointing with several drops. The Bills' gameplan won't change under Orton. They still want to control the ball with their running game. However, the Lions are No. 6 against the rush. They also have been dominant in two home games thus far.

NFL Free Pick: Detroit. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games vs. teams with a winning home record.

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