NFL Picks: Week 5 Picks

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, October 2, 2013 3:14 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2013 3:14 PM GMT

Week 5 of the NFL season is here and it’s time to start releasing my premium plays for this week.

Follow our Daily NFL Week 5 Betting Odds Report and get and edge in your football betting!

While Week 4 wasn’t kind or mean to us, let’s see if we can get more than a unit or two of profit this week with my two premium NFL plays.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns

While the Thursday night game this week is far from desirable to sit through for four quarters, it should have some sports betting value. However, neither team has a ton of upside in this game because of it being on Thursday. What we do know is so far, Thursday games have been a lot sloppier. With two inexperienced starting QBs, I could see more of the same for this one.

Lower scoring games on Thursday are starting to trend, and while they are 2-2 this season, the overs were the Peyton Manning onslaught of the Ravens on opening night (I don’t think it should count because they were rested), and the 49ers’ thrashing of the Rams this past week. The other two were much lower scoring, and I think we will go back to that this week. Both teams are due for a bad game, but I think one may be undervalued because of it.

Since the Bills are +4 underdogs here, I think there is finally value. I realize the Browns have won two straight since the Trent Richardson trade, but at -4, I think they are finally overvalued here on a short week.

Buffalo’s secondary is really hurt right now, but some good news came out of yesterday’s practice, as Pro Bowl safety Jarius Byrd was upgraded to a full participant in practice, and DB Leodis McKelvin got in a second straight day of light practice. The problem is Ron Brooks (who is backing up #1 corner, Stephon Gilmore, who broke his wrist in the preseason) is not practicing yet this week. However, I still think Bills +4 has the value here if at least Byrd (who has yet to play this season) and McKelvin are able to play. They have won and covered their last two meetings with the Browns, and even though they are banged up, I see them covering in a close Thursday game.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Bills +4 on the spread, available at William Hill

 

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers

You can read the full version of this pick in the NFL picks page at SBR Forum, but all in all the total in this game’s total has gotten too low, and I think a play on the over could bring some value. Houston is 3-1 cashing the over this season, while the Niners have cashed the over in nine of their last 11 games overall, and seven of their last eight home games.

Since Colin Kapernick has taken over this offense, the octane boosters have been added, and the Niners have enough offensive firepower to take on a tough Texans defense. The Texans on the other hand also have a very undervalued offense, and while their defense is shutting down opposing QBs, they haven’t been stopping the run. Marshawn Lynch had almost 100 yards rushing last week on 17 carries, and you can bet Frank Gore can be just as effective.

In fact, the Niners have enough at RB to cram it down Houston’s throats all game long, which would in turn make the Texans pass the ball to keep up. Nnamdi Asoumgha and Patrick Willis both missed last Thursday’s game for San Francisco with groin injuries. Along with Aldon Smith already out, this defense is shaky right now. Both games these two teams have played against one another since 2006 have gone over the total and, looking at the NFL odds, I think this one will do the same.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Texans/49ers game OVER 41.5 points at Bet365

Discuss Week 5 of the NFL regular season at SBRForum's football message boards!

Check out SportsbookReview's report on Sports betting websites with the best prices on 2013 NFL Futures!

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