Swinger's Picks for Week 5
Swinger's Record (5-7, -17.15 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*
I refuse to lament the losses that simply should never have happened. If you're the victim of a bad beat, shake it off in the knowledge that you evaluated the game properly but sh*t happens and sometimes due diligence doesn't mean squat when the gambling gods frown upon you.
That's the way it was for me last week in my five unit maximum play on the Tampa Bay Bucs. Shoulda' won as they outplayed the Cardinals for 57 freakin' minutes, coulda' won as they had a ten point lead headed into the closing moments, and woulda' won if it were not for two picks tossed in the final minutes by a rookie who had acquitted himself nicely until crunch time.
The Raiders as home dogs had no bite against the Redskins which blew another three units from my bankroll and then those Dallas Cowboys as visiting chalk proved to be four unit money burners as well. It was a Sunday that couldn't get worse but we did gain some redemption on Monday night as the Saints marched right on over the Dolphins for four units to the good. Let's peruse the Sunday slate for our sport picks and bring some of that dough back to Papa.
Fitzpatrick is in and Locker is out for the Titans. Can you say rhythm buster? Jake Locker had finally found the secret to quarterbacking in the NFL and just when it appeared he was going to lead his Titans to the promised land -whack - it's all over, at least temporarily.
So Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the man pulling the trigger which will no doubt slow an offense that will be swarmed and harassed by a relentless Chiefs defense. Kansas City does not surrender yardage on the ground and with the way Tennessee's Chris Johnson has been lugging the ball this season, expect a bunch of three and outs.
However, the Titans defense has been stout this year as well. They are third in the league in sacks and have a decent secondary that will make those short flares from Alex Smith much more difficult to complete. This looks like a low scoring affair and though I have a lean towards the Chiefs, they may be due for a letdown after overachieving all season.
Free Picks: Play Under 38 ½ for 4 units at WilliamHill.com NFL odds board.
The oddsmakers have the wrong favorite here boys. Joe Flacco has gotten buried this season and the Ravens front office decided to try to do something about that. They traded with the Jags for their 2009 eighth-overall pick, blindside tackle Eugene Moore. Bryant McKinnie, who has gotten beaten more often than a red-headed stepchild, will be mercifully supplanted by Moore which should give Flacco greater protection and inspire more confidence.
I don't see a world where the Dolphins coming off a short week and getting exposed by the Saints will suddenly gain that old swagger back and shred a defense as potentially good as the Ravens. Now the best thing that could have happened is that Baltimore lost to the Bills. It was a comedy of errors for Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense who imploded with self-inflicted wounds all afternoon.
I'm all in on Baltimore for my NFL picks.
Play Baltimore +3 (-120) for 5 units (MAX PLAY) at WilliamHill.com
Play Baltimore +125 for 3 units at WilliamHill.com
Maybe I underestimate the Cardinals and perhaps I am giving too much credence to Cam Newton and the Panthers particularly coming off a shellacking of the Giants and then a bye last week but this looks like a decent team ready to expose a lackluster bunch. The Redbirds killed me last week when I faded them against the Bucs so I will cautiously bet against them one more time.
The Woodman's Corner (1-3, -2.3 units) - Guest Handicapper
In his never ending crusade to back bad teams getting big points, the illustrious Woodman backs the NY Jets +10 at WilliamHill.com in his NFL picks over the Atlanta Falcons.