We cashed a couple of great player props on Thursday, and while my team props have been off recently, the player NFL Odds props are picking up the slack. I have three more for you this week, so let’s dive in and see if we can increase our already profitable bankroll. All of these odds come from Bet365.
Knowshon Moreno rushing yards total (50.5)
Moreno has become the default starting running back in Denver this season, and while the Broncos don’t need a “feature,” back with all of their passing talent, Moreno has been key at the goal line and on passing downs in protection. This week against Dallas, he has a rushing yards total of 50.5, and I think there’s a good shot he goes under that total.
At this point in his career, Moreno possesses little burst and speed, and for him to break a long run would be farfetched. Dallas’ run defense has been very good so far this season, and on top of that, the Dallas passing defense is awful. The only way to move the ball on Dallas is to throw, and even if the Broncos get a big lead, Ronnie Hillman or the rookie, Monte Ball could easily come in for mop up duty, leaving Moreno on the bench late in the game. I doubt he gets 51 or more rushing yards, take the under for your NFL picks.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 50.5 (+100)
Julius Thomas has been one of the breakout candidates for this season, and is one of the big reasons why Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ offense is putting up these huge numbers. Now he enters this week with a great TD price of +140 against the Cowboys, and I love the matchup.
Through four games, the Cowboys have given up 32 receptions, 346 yards and two touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Thomas is just as, if not more capable of snagging a TD in this game than the likes of Antonio Gates, who shredded the Cowboys last week and found the end zone. Thomas has four touchdowns through four games and I think he will continue that pace here tonight with a score against Dallas.
My Pick: Julius Thomas (+140) Bet 365
Another guy I have my eye on in this game is the back up running back for the Patriots, LeGarrette Blount. Blount is far from what he was three or four years ago with the Bucs, but he still has the capability of punching the ball into the end zone from the one-yard line, and against the Bengals, even though they have a great running defense, I think Blount will find the end zone.
All it will take is one pass interference call to set it up, and the Bengals’ secondary could be giving those up in bunches with all the injuries they have. On top of that, Steven Ridley will miss this game for the Pats, and Brandon Bolden is still banged up. Blount is basically the only game in town when it comes to red zone and goal line carries for the Pats. I expect him to see 15 or more carries in this one, and to score a TD. The odds for such things are ripe with value for our NFL picks.
My Pick: LeGarrette Blount (+175)