NFL Picks: Week 5 Game-by-Game Odds Preview & Predictions

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 30, 2014 8:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 30, 2014 8:20 PM UTC

After a conservative week 4 in NFL betting markets, odds makers boldly release some generous spreads for week 5. So join us as we go through the entire NFL board and serve up our choice NFL picks for all the games slated in NFL week 5.

Vikings +9 (-115) vs. Packers -9.0 (-105)
Analysis: Five letters: R-E-L-A-X. So said Aaron Rodgers after the Packers’ abysmal defeat to the Lions and just before their last outing in week 4 in response to critics, menacing fingers all too eagerly hovered over the panic button. Sage advice it proved as Rodgers and the Packers lit up at the expense of the Chicago Bears with a convincing 38-17 victory, all while covering handily as the 1.5-point favourites on our NFL picks.

This week, there’s no doubt where the respect lies in this matchup. Oddsmakers have rolled out a generous 9-point spread for this clash with the hosts to the good. Vikings ushered in the Teddy Bridgewater era last week. While the rookie quarterback rose to the occasion by leading the Vikings to a 41-28 victory over the high-flying Falcons, he did suffer an injury late in the game. It’s yet uncertain whether he'll start on Thursday – if he does, he could have a measure of success and make it an interesting game against a rather unspectacular Green Bay defense. If he doesn’t, however, the Vikings will have to rely on Ponder, which can only spell D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R. That being said the Falcons are a mess on defense. Vikings’ beat them all too easily it seemed, which prompts the legitimate question: just how good was the Bridgewater debut, really? The Packers (2-2SU) have the 7-1-1 ATS edge over the Vikings (2-2SU) in their last nine home dates.

NFL Picks: Packers -9.0 (-105)

Falcons +4.0 (-105) vs. Giants -4.0 (-115)
Analysis: All of a sudden, everybody is buying what the Giants are selling. After struggling something awful with McAdoo’s new offensive scheme in the first two games, things clicked in week 3. Eli Manning had one of his best turnouts yet as he led the Giants to a victory at home over the Texans. And he carried that form into Thursday’s clash with the Redskins. Manning went 28-of-39 for 300 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception in the Giants’ 45-14 win over the Redskins, all while covering as the 3-point dogs. Giants are climbing the offensive charts steadily – 16th in both the pass and rush. As well, they are 10th against the rush with just 101.3 yards allowed and 22nd against the pass with 254.5 yards allowed. Falcons aren't as balanced, boasting one of the best offenses statistically after four rounds of NFL betting alongside a rather suspect defense that ranks 30th against the pass and 28th against the rush. If Eli Manning continues on the verve and swagger he’s shown the last two weeks, taking the Giants on your NFL picks should prove profitable.

NFL Picks: Giants -4.0 (-115)

Ravens+3.5 (-110) vs. Colts -3.5 (-110)
Analysis: Andrew Luck is amazing, brilliant, future, la, la. Waxing lyrical about Luck is fine and dandy. He’s worthy of the hyperbole thrown his way after what he’s accomplished in Indianapolis since his NFL debut, obviously. But, you are only as good as your next game. Beating the hapless Jaguars and Titans, while stacking stats and numerous touchdowns at their expense, is hardly awe-inspiring. Fact is Luck has yet to beat a legitimate team or quarterback this season; he lost to the Broncos and Eagles at the start of the season, marking his first losing streak in the NFL.

Aside from an opening hiccup against the Bengals, the Ravens have reeled off three straight wins against Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Carolina. The Ravens (3-1) are establishing themselves as contenders this season and if their last outing were any indication – beating the Panthers 38-10 as the 3-point chalk – Luck is going to have his work cut out for him. Betting against Luck isn't something one takes lightly, but this is a case of a pretty good football team Ravens, bristling with NFL betting value as 3.5-point on the NFL odds page..

NFL Picks: Ravens +3.5 (-110)

Bills +7.0 (-105) vs. Lions -7.0 (-115)
Analysis: Hot off the press: E.J. Manuel is benched. Kyle Orton set to start against the hot Detroit Lions (3-1 SU and ATS this season). Yikes. Detroit boasts a strong defense – second against the pass (186.5) and sixth against the rush (80.8). On offense they have plenty of weapons too and they have the seventh passing offense with 276.0 yards.

NFL Picks: Lions -7.0 (-115)

Bears +3.0 (125) vs. Panthers -3.0 (+105)
Analysis: Both the Bears and Panthers unravelled last weekend, making this game one of those tossups on your NFL picks. The Bears finally came crashing down to earth with a 38-17 loss to Green Bay. Jay Cutler reversed to the quarterback of old as he made some poor decisions and threw two costly interceptions, not to mention their defense is almost non-existent. Panthers, meanwhile, lost two straight while they were outscored 75-29, leaving all and sundry wondering what happened to their so-called sturdy defense that allowed a mere 21 points in the first two games. Some could say Steve Smith happened, singlehandedly delivering the gut-punching blows to his former teammates. If we had to slice this game one way or another, we're going with the Panthers at home to cover the 3-points.

NFL Picks: Panthers -3.0 (+105)

Browns vs. Titans (OTB)
Analysis: The Titans have lost three in a row, outscored 100-34. Now, they have to make changes at centre, stick with Jake Locker or go with their other options. The Browns are coming off a bye week with a 1-2 SU record and 2-0-1 ATS mark. Most importantly, they've kept all three games this season (win or loss) against tough opponents close – both defeats 30-27 to Steelers and 23-21 to Ravens and the 26-24 win over New Orleans feature just a handful of points

NFL Picks: Browns

Texans +4.0 (-105) vs. Cowboys -4.0 (-115)
Analysis: This is another one of those tossups to some respect in week 5 NFL betting. Texans defense means business and that could be trouble for Tony Romo and his O-Line. Texans are 3-1 SU and ATS this season. While Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t exactly an elite quarterback, stringing together four convincing quarters on the road a touch challenging for him, big defensive and special team plays by the Texans could prove deciding. Cowboys have bounced back after their opening defeat to the Niners with three straight wins over Titans, Rams and Saints – three outfits struggling this term. They also have the top rushing offense in the league – although, once again, stats gained at the expense of three outfits struggling this term. It’s hard to get a real sense of the Cowboys after four games, not least AT&T Stadium is one of the worst as far as home advantage goes.

NFL Picks: Texans +4.0

Steelers -6.5 (-110) vs.Jaguars +6.5 (+110)
Analysis: Big Ben and the Steelers will be looking to bounce back in huge way against the Jacksonville Jaguars after they dropped the ball as the 7-point chalk to the winless Bucs last week. Jaguars’ defense is more porous than Swiss cheese, and although rookie Blake Bortles enjoyed a positive debut last week, he still has to rely on a defense that ranks 32nd against the pass and 25th against the rush.

NFL Picks: Steelers -6.5

Rams +7.0 (-115) vs. Eagles -7.0 (-105)
Analysis: Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense stuttered badly against the Niners last weekend. Foles went 21-of-43 passes for just 195 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. Shockingly, it was the previously 30th ranked defense and special teams that came up with the big plays to give the Eagles the lead over the Niners before succumbing to a 26-21 defeat behind a late Niners surge. Going into week 5 NFL betting, Chip Kelly’s offense will look to bounce back. Fortunately, the Eagles (3-1SU and 2-2 ATS) are coming up against an inconsistent outfit in the Rams – who've lost their identity at centre and have shown little resistance on defense.

NFL Picks: Eagles -7.0 (-105)

Bucs +10.5 (-110) vs. Saints -10.5 (-110)
Analysis: Lovie Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the biggest underdogs against the spread to cash in last week. Can they make it two in a row against a Saints side that is a paltry 1-3 SU and ATS this season? Had this game been a road game, many NFL bettors probably would consider piling onto the Bucs on their NFL picks.  But the Saints are a different team at home. Not only is it nigh impossible for visitors to fly the coop with a win, but also it’s just as difficult to cover. Saints are 12-5 ATS at home and 11-4 ATS as home favourites since 2012.

NFL Picks: Saints -10.5

Cardinals +7.0 (-110) vs. Broncos -7.0 (-110)
Analysis: Arizona Cardinals are one of two teams that remain undefeated on the season, which has to be a freak accident of nature. Denver Broncos are one of several teams yet to cover the spread this season, which is yet another freak accident of nature. Drew Stanton stepped up in week 3 to lead the Cardinals to a victory over the Niners, a feat that sets up a bit of a quarterback controversy ahead of week 5. Which QB do the Cardinals start: do they stay with the newbie Stanton or go back to Carson Palmer, who claims to be ready for the Broncos clash? Whichever QB Peyton Manning and the Broncos face, we expect the hosts to get their first cover this season.

NFL Picks: Broncos -7.0 (-110)

Chiefs +6.5 (-115) vs. 49ers -6.5 (-105)
Analysis: Chiefs decimated the Patriots unapologetically 41-14 at Arrowhead on Monday night, delivering what seemingly was their most comprehensive performance yet this season. Truth be told, the Patriots simply fell apart and Tom Brady had one of the worst outings of his career. Loud-and-proud Arrowhead had a lot to do with the result so don't expect another such blowout. The Chiefs on the road are a different team. The Niners are a step up (or two) from the Patriots, despite their recent struggles on offense, compounded by the less than convincing win over the Eagles last week that featured way too many mistakes by Kaepernick and a shower of laundry. Still, the Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1 ATS this season at the expense of some credible opponents and 6.5-points seems to be too many to be giving up. So we like the Chiefs plus the points for our early NFL picks, unless there are some significant line moves.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +6.5

Jets +6.5 (-110) vs. Chargers -6.5 (-110)
Analysis: Chargers aren't exactly the sort of team that typically blows opponents out of the water, but they are 15-6-1 ATS since last season with an average margin of victory at 4.4 points.  Since beating the Seattle Seahawks 30-21 in week 2 NFL betting, the Chargers haven't looked back. They've been playing balanced football and their margin of victory has been growing, outscoring opposition 85-45 – that yields an average margin of 13.3 points per game.

NFL Picks: Chargers -6.5

Bengals -1.0 (-110) vs. Patriots +1.0 (-110)
Analysis: Bengals are set to put a 3-0 SU and ATS record on the line when they descend of the Patriots, still reeling from a 41-14 defeat to the Chiefs. Bengals are coming off a bye week and they are brimming with confidence behind some solid play from Andy Dalton at centre, and A.J. Green and Gio Bernard, amongst several others. It wouldn't surprise anybody if the Bengals did come through as the 1-point favourites. Stats, form, results all suggest the Patriots are headed for one of their worst seasons in recent memory.  All those aside, home pups strike an appealing pose on our NFL picks. We're going to back the Patriots to bounce back in week 5 NFL betting.

NFL Picks: Patriots +1.0 (-110)

Seahawks -7.0 (-115) vs. Redskins +7.0 (-105)
Analysis: After Eli Manning and the Giants exposed the Washington Redskins on Thursday, it’s hard to imagine Kirk Cousins bouncing back at the expense of Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. The defending champions have been solid this season, despite the hiccup in San Diego. Most impressively, they beat the Denver Broncos in overtime behind some clinical play from Wilson as he drove down the field with single-minded purpose and determination. Seahawks are coming off a bye, so they'll have the advantage over the Redskins, despite being on the road. Seahawks as the 7-point road chalks should prove a handy NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Seahawks -7 (-115)

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