NFL Picks: Week 5 Game-by-Game ATS Rundown & Early Predictions

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 5, 2015 8:52 PM GMT

Let’s look at all 14 games for the coming NFL week with all SU & ATS records, significant injuries, recent series particulars, current point spreads and totals and make some early week picks.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans No Line (CBS, NFL Network, Directv 212, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): The Indianapolis Colts (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) head to NRG Stadium on Thursday night to face the Houston Texans (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) in a big early season AFC South date. There are conflicting reports (Monday) on Colts QB Andrew Luck (14-12 ATS) and his Right Shoulder injury. Earlier, NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport told NFL HQ that Luck was aiming to play here on Thursday night, while Indy Sports Central’s Chris Hagan is reporting now that out-of-state experts have looked at an MRI which Luck took a week ago and have determined he is suffering from a subluxation of the throwing shoulder. Luck sat out the Colts game Sunday, being replaced by backup Matt Hasselbeck, and Pain and Arm Strength are the two primary things the team is trying to determine before saying whether the star young signal caller will be able to go for Indianapolis in this game. Almost all sportsbooks have been slow to put a Point Spread up on this (the Advanced Line was Colts -1). Indianapolis LB Jerrell Freeman (Groin) left Sunday’s OT win over Jacksonville, while Texans WR Nate Washington (Hamstring) sat out Houston’s big loss at the Atlanta Falcons. Last season, the Colts won 33-28 in H-Town in the first meeting, covering as 2½-point favorites, and Indianapolis also won and pushed the Point Spread (-7) at Home in Naptown, 17-10. The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS the L7 vs. the Texans. Expect this to re-open up with the Colts around 2½ to 4-point favorites with the information that Luck is intending to play. Thi will be a huge game for both teams, off to sad starts this Regular Season, and a Loss and a 1-4 SU record would be disastrous for Houston and Head Coach Bill O’Brien (10-9-1 ATS).

 

Sunday, October 11, 2015

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs.Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3, 42 (Pinnacle; All NFL odds Here from Pinnacle except where noted) (CBS, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and QB Blake Bortles have already beat Sunshine State foes, the Miami Dolphins, this season, so heading south to Tampa and Raymond James Stadium and beating the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston (4 Interceptions Sunday) is a distinct possibility, especially if the Florida State University product and Rookie plays like he did against the Panthers in Sunday’s ugly loss. The Swashbucklers are now 7-24 ATS in their L31 at Home. The last time these two teams played, the Bucs lost at Jacksonville 41-14 as 3-point favorites in 2011, while the last meeting here in Tampa (2007)—there actually is no Tampa Bay—the Buccaneers lost 24-23 as 4-point favorites. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this inter-conference, intra-state affair. Heading into Week 5 play, Jacksonville has scored an AFC-low 62 points while the Buccaneers have now tallied 72. The Jaguars will be happy to playing the Buccaneers here, after facing the Patriots in Week 2 and the Colts on Sunday in Week 3 (Indianapolis won 16-13 in OT).

 

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee -3, 42½ Titans (FOX, Directv 712, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) head to LP Field in Nashville this Sunday afternoon to dance with the Tennessee Titans (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS), who will we well-rested (13 Days), coming in off their Open Date (Bye Week) for this interdivisional AFC game while Buffalo will be coming off a disappointing Loss to the New York Giants in Buffalo on Sunday in Week 4 play. Buffalo WR Sammy Watkins and RB LeSean McCoy both missed Sunday’s game vs. the G-Men. The Bills incurred 17 Penalties for 135 yards in the Loss—their third-highest total in franchise history and this could end up being a challenging spot for new Head Coach Rex Ryan and Buffalo. The last time these two teams played, the Titans won at Buffalo, 35-34 as 4-point underdogs in 2012, while the last time these two played here at Opryland, Buffalo won as 8-point underdogs, 41-17 in 2009. Note: Titans Overs are 3-0 ATS.

 

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens -6½, 44 (CBS, Directv 709, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): After playing, and losing dramatically, in San Diego in Week 4, the poor Cleveland Browns (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) head all the way back across the country to Baltimore to face the Ravens (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at M&T Bank Stadium in this AFC North affair on Sunday which will be very important for both teams with the loser falling to 1-4 and probably out of the picture in the 2015/16 NFL Regular Season. Last season, the Ravens won and covered by ½ a point in Cleveland, 23-21 (-1½), while in this game last year in the Crab City, Baltimore won, 20-10, but didn’t cover as big 14-point chalks. Even though the Browns are an impressive 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Baltimore, the Ravens will be fired up after Thursday’s come-from-behind win in Pittsburgh, glad to be back Home in Maryland after 3 of the first 4 games were on the Road, and ready to take out some frustrations on of the worst teams in the NFL, coming off a stupid mistake (Offsides Penalty on missed, last-second, game-winning FG Attempt) and weary from so much travel. Note: The Ravens now have 7 Home games left, an Open Date (Week 10), along with this and another meeting (Week 12) with Cleveland. So, don’t give up on the Blackbirds.

NFL Pick: Ravens -6½ at Pinnacle

 

Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons -8, 47½ (FOX, Directv 705, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): Matt Ryan (32-23-2 ATS at Home) and the Atlanta Falcons (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) play host to the Washington Redskins (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon in this NFC inter-conference affair which will be much more important to the Redskins, even with the decent start. Atlanta continues to really impress under first-year Head Coach Dan Quinn (4-0 ATS), and this NFC South team has had back-to-back 35-point games for the first time since 1998. At one point over Weeks 3-4, the Falcons had outscored the NFL’s two Texas teams (Dallas, Houston) by a 67-0 margin. And leading the way in Sunday’s romp over the Texans was RB Devonta Freeman, who had his second straight 3-TD game—the first Falcons player to do since the club’s inception into the league in 1970. The last time these two teams played, the Falcons won 27-26 at Home in Atlanta but failed to cover as 5-point favorites in 2013 while when they met three seasons ago in Landover in 2012, Atlanta won 24-17 and covered as 3-point favorites. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS the L4 overall vs. Washington and Atlanta is 4-1 ATS the L5 here at Home against the Redskins (0-1 ATS Road). Washington is improved and rising in many Power Rankings and going to Kirk Cousins at QB was the right move, but Atlanta’s on a roll and Quinn may be finally changing the Culture and Mentality in the Falcons’ Locker Room for the better.

NFLPick: Falcons -8 at TheGreek

 

Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs -10, 45½ (FOX, Directv 707, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Chicago Bears (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) head to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on Sunday afternoon to face the Kansas City Chiefs (1-3 SU, 1-3) in this Midwest inter-conference battle and pretty much now a must-win for both teams. Bears starting QB Jay Cutler (Hamstring) fought off his Injury and played on Sunday, leading Chicago to a late win over the upstart Oakland Raiders at Soldier Field thanks to a late Robbie Gould FG. Chicago would have had absolutely no chance of a Win with backup Jimmy Clausen in. And Kansas City was defeated at Cincinnati, 36-21, so QB Alex Smith (29-24-2 ATS) and the Chiefs need the win here and are coming off a little Broncos-Packers-Bengals (Weeks 2-4) patch of Hell on their schedule. These two teams don’t play that much in the Regular Season, but the last time they did, Kansas City won outright and covered, 10-3 getting 9 points at Soldier Field in 2011, while the last time these two danced here at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs rolled to an easy 31-3 win and easily covered ATS, back in 2003. The Bears are 3-1 ATS in the L4 at Kansas City, but those were different Bears teams and likely ones which played better Defense. Notes: These two teams have alternated Wins and Losses 8 straight meetings with the Chiefs winning the last one, and, Chiefs Overs are now 4-0 ATS. The Advanced Line of -12—put out by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook midweek—seemed high, as does this 10 hanging both at the SuperBook and Offshore at Pinnacle on Sunday night and it seems Chicago could win this game if everything goes right. In a time when NFL Kickers are catching more grief than politicians, the Bears Gould is perfect on all his XP and FG attempts. Golden as always and good to know if you’re an NFL bettor. Carry on my wayward son.

NFL Pick: Bears +10 at Bovada

 

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles -4½, 49 (FOX, 4 p.m. EDT/1 p.m. PDT): The New Orleans Saints (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) got QB Drew Brees (55-47-4 ATS on Road) on Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys and they needed their veteran gunslinger to do everything he could—including recording his 400th career TD pass—to help his team record its first victory of the season. When there were only 4 men on the Pass Rush on Sunday night, Brees was a remarkable 30/31 for 323 yards and 2 TDs. Here on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field in the City of Brotherly Love, Brees and the Who Dats will be facing the Philadelphia Eagles (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) in a big game for both teams who are sort of chasing everyone now, especially the Eagles who fell to .500 in an upset loss at Washington in NFC East action. When these two last met in 2012, New Orleans defeated the Eagles, 28-13 at the Superdome and covered as 3-point favorites, while the last meeting here in the Keystone State (2009), Brees and the Saints opened a can of whoop ass (with a side order of Gumbo) on Philadelphia, winning 48-23 as 3-point underdogs. The Saints are 3-0 ATS over the L3 meetings, but those were different, much better New Orleans teams. This looked better on the schedule in July than it does now. The Eagles are a putrid 2-6 SU over their L8.

NFL Pick: Saints +4½  at Bet365

 

St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers -10, 46½ (CBS, Directv 710, NFL RedZone, 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT): The Green Bay Packers (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) and QB Aaron Rodgers (36-18-3 ATS at Home) welcome the upstart St. Louis Rams (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) and Rookie (Georgia) RB Todd Gurley (18 rushes, 146 yards, 7.7 ypc vs. Cardinals on Sunday) to Lambeau Field in Green Bay on Sunday for this entertaining inter-divisional NFC tilt. Both the Packers (49ers) and Rams (Cardinals) had nice Wins in Sunday’s late games, especially for Head Coach Jeff Fisher (27-25 ATS) and St. Louis, which won on the Road against a top-notch team and climbed back the .500 mark (2-2) avoiding what looked like a 1-3 start. Rams LB Alec Ogletree (Ankle) did injure himself in the Rams win Sunday and will now require surgery. The last time these two met, the Packers won 30-20 as 4½-point chalks in 2012 in the Gateway City, while the last time these two met here in Brown County where it rains Cheese Curds and the Cows know the Packers theme song, Green Bay won and covered, 24-3 as 14-point favorites in 2011. This Point spread  went from -9 to -10 in no time and one can see why as backing the Packers in Green Bay ATS has been an extremely profitable thing of late (8-2-1 ATS L11). This line could rise more and Green Bay’s Defense looked fantastic, holding the Niners to only 196 Total Yards and 8 First Downs. Green Bay and Head Coach Mike McCarthy (93-63-4 ATS) are still in the midst of a somewhat easy patch of games in the Schedule from Weeks 3-7, and the Packers next face the San Diego Chargers (Week 6) and then have an Open Date after playing St. Louis here in america’s Dairyland. With its Home win in Week 2 over the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay has inside track for the Home-field in the NFC although the NFC South’s Atlanta Falcons (4-0) and Carolina Panthers (4-0) are both perfect still as we head on into Week 5. The way Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (36-18-3 ATS at Home), Green Bay is a cheesy and hard train to want to get in front of. The Wiseguys will adore the rams later in the week should this Point Spread rise to (plus) 12 or more with the visitors. The Pack are 5-1 ATS the L6 in this series.

NFL Pick: Packers -10 at Bookmaker

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals -1, 44½ (CGT) (FOX, Directv 706, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): Quite often, the NFL’s marquee game of the week is one which is probably best left alone at the betting window, and this AFC-NFC heavyweight showdown from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday between the upstart host Cincinnati Bengals (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) and the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Lions on Monday Night Football; Odds: Seahawks -10, 43, Pinnacle) is just one of those games in my mind. And there’s no doubt that the General Public and probably many Wiseguys who will dabble in this high-profile affair, but this seems like a toss-up where either team could win, and where it could end 20-10 just as easily as it could end up 34-24. And if you bet a small number of NFL games each week, why have one of those wagers simply be “just because it’s the Big Game” or “just because it’s on TV” brother? This is where Bankrolls—big or little—lose muscle strength...betting just to bet. Anyway, enough preaching. The last time these two played, the Bengals won 34-12 at Seattle as 1½-point favorites in 2011, while the last meeting here in the Queen City was way back in 2007—Seattle’s second season in the NFC—where Cincinnati won 27-24. Trend-wise, the Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS the L6 vs. Seattle but just 1-3 ATS in the L4 vs. the Seahawks here at Paul Brown Stadium. This should be a classic, with Cincinnati having the edge on Offense with Skill guys like QB Andy Dalton (20-13-2 ATS at Home), WR AJ Green, WR Marvin Jones, TE Tyler Eifert, RB Giovani Bernard and RB Jeremy Hill, and Seattle having the stronger Defense with FS Kam Chancellor now done with his holdout and back with his Legion of Boom members, SS Dion Bailey, CB Cary Williams and CB Richard Sherman. This one’s can’t-miss TV and a total Stay Away for me. The Bengals are 15-2-1 SU at Home since the start of the 2013 season.

 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions (FOX, Directv 713, RedZone, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT): The Arizona Cardinals (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) and QB Carson Palmer (37-32-3 ATS on Road) head to Ford Field in Detroit this Sunday for a crucial Week 5 meeting with the Detroit Lions (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS; at Seahawks on Monday Night Football) and a hobbled Matthew Stafford (17-22-1 ATS at Home). These two teams don’t play that often, but the last meeting between these two NFC teams was last year in Glendale where Arizona topped Detroit, 14-6 as 1-point underdogs. The last meeting here in the Motor City was in 2005 where the Lions won 29-21 as 4-point favorites. The Cardinals are an impressive 5-1 ATS over the L6 vs. Detroit but Arizona is an ugly 0-4 ATS the L4 trips to Motown, although those Cardinals teams weren’t half as good as the one Head Coach Bruce Arians (24-11-1 ATS) has put together now. This is a tough call and seeing how Detroit plays tonight (Monday) at Seattle is imperative before making any picks or giving out any betting advice.

 

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys 7½, 49  (CBS, Directv 714, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): Yet another pretty good-looking game on paper here from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) host the defending Super Bowl champion and very well-rested New England Patriots (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS). But why the big line with the Patriots on the Road you ask? Well, first off, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and some other Cowboys are injured, including LB Sean Lee (Concussion) and RB Lance Dunbar, who hurt himself in Sunday night’s Loss at New Orleans and is officially now out for the season. Secondly, New England is still stuck in Deflategate Mad mode, undefeated (Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick loves that) and has this prolific QB named Tom Brady (64-44-1 ATS on Road). Dallas will be getting LB Greg Hardy back here from his 4-game Suspension, but honestly, the banged-up Cowboys Defense looked suspect vs. the Saints, the team lost its first Road game in 11 tries and America’s Team may have more Injuries that matter than anyone in the league, including always-hobbled TE Jason Witten and Rookie DE Randy Gregory (Ankle, expected back late October). The word is that injured Cowboys’ QB Romo is coming along faster than anticipated, but Dallas has had no choice but to go with backup Brandon Weeden who has now lost his last 10 consecutive starts. The last meeting between these two was in Foxboro in 2011 where the Patriots won 20-16 but failed to cover as 4½-point favorites while the last meeting here in the Big D was in 2007 where New England throttled the Cowboys, 48-27, easily covering the Point Spread as 5½-point chalks. The Patriots are 3-1 ATS the L4 vs. Cowboys overall. New England willprobably eat Dallas alive and this may end up being the best NFL pick on the board in the NFL this week.

NFL Pick: Patriots -7 at Heritage

 

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders -5½, 43½ vs (CBS, Directv 715, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): The Denver Broncos (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) and QB Peyton Manning (74-58-5 ATS on Road) head to O.Co Coliseun here on Sunday afternoon in Week 5 to face the Oakland Raiders (2-2 SU, 2-2) in this AFC West meeting. The Broncos and RB Ronnie Hillman held off the Vikings in Denver on Sunday to stay undefeated while the Raiders lost an a last-second FG by the Bears Robbie Gould in Chicago at Soldier Field to fall back to the .500 mark at 2-2. Denver has dominated the division of late, and last season when these two teams played, the Broncos won and covered both, thrashing the Silver and Black in Oakland, 41-17 as big 13-point favorites in the first meeting and the beating the Raiders, 47-14 as 16-point chalks in Week 17. With the emergence of Raiders QB David Carr, Rookie WR Amari Cooper (Alabama) and Free Agent-signee Michael Crabtree (49ers), Oakland is the best it has been in some time and this could end up being a very good and close game. Still, lean to Denver and Peyton Manning (74-58-5 ATS on Road)—who has now W63 straight games when taking a lead into the 4th Quarter—until someone in the AFC West actually beats them Broncos on the old Gridiron. Denver is 6-0-1 ATS the L7 overall vs. Oakland and the Broncos are a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 here at the O.co Coliseum. Of note: Talented 37-year-old Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski has not missed an XP (10/10) or a FG attempt (7/7) yet this season for the Raiders; and also, Broncos 1st Quarter Unders improved to 4-0 after Sunday. This one is another potentially entertaining game maybe best left alone and just watched.

 

San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants -7, 43 (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): Another Sunday Night Football game for NBC which looked much better on the network’s schedule this Summer (The Peacock Network slogged us with the Saints-Cowboys on Sunday night). Here, the New York Giants (2-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) host the San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) and troubled QB Colin Kaepernick (13-9-3 ATS on Road) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday night in a primetime game which many will likely avoid. Thank god for betting, eh? The last time these two former NFC heavyweights played here, the 49ers won and covered as 4-point favorites in a low-scoring 16-10 game. San Francisco hasn’t fared well in this series Trend-wise, going 1-4 ATS L5 against the G-Men here out East—where the 49ers will go 3 Hours back from PDT to EDT—and San Francisco is a weak 2-7 ATS the L9 overall in this series. Lean G-Men and lean laying the number. Also, lean avoiding laying a potential ½ point should this trickle up, although most sportsbooks have solid 7s hanging for this game right now. Professional Israeli basketball team Maccabi Haifa and PG Yiftach Ziv will be in Lalaland playing the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center in an NBA Exhibition waste of time on Sunday night if that better suits your sporting needs (NBA, 9:30 p.m. EDT/6:30 p.m. PDT).

 

Monday, October 12, 2015


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers -3½ (ESPN/WatchESPN, Directv 206, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): Qualcomm Stadium in sunny San Diego is the site of this Monday Night Football game next week between the host San Diego Chargers (2-2 SU) and the wounded Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 2-0-2 ATS) in what suddenly seems like a big game for both sitting at .500 after Thursday’s night’s embarrassing collapse by Pittsburgh to the Ravens. With Michael Vick starting for the injured Ben Roethlisberger (out 4-6 weeks), Pittsburgh is probably 6-8 points worse on Offense with Vick in there, but he should improve a little bit each start. Hopefully he won’t get Steelers All-Pro WR Antonio Brown hurt with some of these odd-angle, side-arm, shot-in-the-dark passes he tosses yup. Mylanta. The last time these two teams played was in 2012 at Pittsburgh when the Chargers won outright, 34-24 as 7-point underdogs, while the last meeting here at Qualcomm Stadium was back in 2006 where the Bolts won 23-13 as 3½-point favorites. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS the L10 overall in this series and the Black and Gold is 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Southern California, but those games were all played a long time ago. Note: The L4 meetings in this series have all been at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. Would have loved the Steelers +6½ on the Advanced Line, but even at +3½ on the Road it’s intriguing. Pittsburgh can win, and the fear of being at 2-2 now in a division with a charging Ravens team and the undefeated Bengals should motivate them to at least play lockdown Defense against Philip Rivers (42-35-1 ATS at Home) and the Chargers.

NFLPick: Steelers +3½ 

NFL Week 5 Byes: Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets

NFL Week 5 Opening Picks: Ravens -8½ over Browns; Falcons -7½ over Redskins; Bears +10 over Chiefs; Saints +4½ over Eagles; Packers -10 over Rams (Pinnacle); Patriots -7 over Cowboys (William Hill); Steelers +3½ over Chargers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)