NFL Picks: Week 4 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 8:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 8:20 PM UTC

For those making NFL picks, I have moved to 5-4 on the season after a couple of 2-1 weeks with these value picks. Despite having three fewer games to choose, still found three plays to ponder.

Washington Redskins Scalp Giants
OK, I apologize, this whole Redskins uproar has me baffled, and just trying to invoke a little insensitivity training, but I am not confused about the Thursday night play against the betting odds.

Coach Jay Gruden might have the kind of quarterback he wants in Kirk Cousins, someone who understands what he sees before taking the snap, reads thru progressions properly and can make accurate throws.

NFL handicappers and those placing sports picks cannot help but notice the team with burgundy jersey’s has tallied 75 points in the past two games with no RG3 in sight.

New York got their initial win of the season over Houston, but that was predicated by and large by running back Rashard Jennings rushing for 176 yards. However, the team playing in Virginia is third in fewest rushing yards allowed at 64.7 per contest and when the Giants are one dimensional, they are very beatable. With the Red, whoops, with Washington lowered a point to -3.5, we have additional value versus the sportsbooks.

NFL Football Free Pick: Washington -3.5

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Jets Fly by Detroit
Just like last season, if there is a mistake to be made, quarterback Geno Smith is the guy to do it for the New York Jets. Gang Green had three turnovers on Monday night and was inside the Bears 25-yard line six times and scored one touchdown, pathetic.

So why on earth would I recommend them as a value play versus the NFL odds against Detroit after they completely throttled Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense?

Let’s start with Rex Ryan acting like a head coach and having his team do what it does best, running the ball and against the Lions that means on the edges outside the tackles, the best place to attack Detroit. The Lions secondary struggles with comeback routes, which the Jets should attack.

While Matthew Stafford has lots of weapons, he will throw jump balls when pressured and seldom has been a good road quarterback.

When I see Detroit 6-13 ATS as non-division road favorites since 2007 and the Jets 18-4 ATS at home after a home loss, I’ll fly with New York for my Week 4 NFL pick.

NFL Football Free Pick: N.Y. Jets +1.5

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Picked Baltimore Again, but in Different Role
I know, I’m on the stinkin’ Ravens for the fourth time in four weeks, but hang with me, this time it’s different.

Carolina was built to run the ball, but with changes to offensive line and having as many as three running backs not sure to play this week, a banged up Cam Newton will be called upon to lead his team. This could be a real conundrum for the Panthers with the Baltimore defense up to No. 8 in rushing defense and still able to rush the passer.

The Ravens offense is still trying to find a rhythm and seems to depend on a few big plays a game to score touchdowns or set up field goals.

Coach Ron Rivera and the defensive coaches will be after the defensive front seven after an average running blocking unit like Pittsburgh ran over them for 264 yards last Sunday evening.

The totals was lifted from 39 to 40.5, which to me is the wrong direction given all the circumstances. In addition, when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, and a club like Baltimore is off a road win by three points or less, in a game involving two teams with a 60% to 75% win percentage, the 'under' is 28-8.

NFL Football Free Pick: Play Under 40.5

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