NFL Picks: Week 4 NFL Team Prop Betting

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, September 28, 2013 3:18 PM GMT

Week 4 has already been kind to my prop betting picks, and after hitting on two out of three Thursday evening, let’s try and keep that momentum going into Sunday.


NFL Week 4 team prop picks

All of these NFL Odds are from Bet365 sportsbook.

Number of touchdowns

Steelers vs. Vikings (4.5) 

The Pittsburgh defense hasn’t looked great so far this season, but they don’t look bad either. However a trip to Minneapolis might solve all of those problems, as the Vikings are starting 2nd string QB Matt Cassel. If the Steelers can’t play well in this game, I don’t know when they can. While playing against Cassel isn’t a lock to make this game lower scoring, I think it may present solid value on the number of TDs scored in this game from both teams. 

The Pittsburgh offense is getting their rookie running back, Le’Veon Bell for the first time this season and they are going to want to feed him the ball against a below average Vikings defense. That will likely be the best defense they have against Adrian Peterson. All the Vikings have is Peterson, and with the running games prvelent, this game just screams field goal-fest. The Vikings have a great kicker, and the Steelers’ are on the road and their offense is still struggling. Take the under for your NFL picks

My Pick: ‘Under’ 4.5 (+100)

[gameodds]16/226919/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]  

Cardinals vs. Buccaneers

The Cardinals are going all the way to Tampa this week, and if that isn’t enough to make you think low score this week, the Bucs are starting a QB who has never taken a real NFL snap. This is my best team prop bet of the week. With two under achieving defenses facing off against one another in this one as well, I see a lot of punting and not a lot of scoring in this game.

The Cards’ offense will likely struggle at times in this game, while Tampa’s offensive production is pretty much unknown to this point. Tampa’s defense and the travel should be enough to hold down the Cards’ offense, and I doubt Mike Glennon goes for 300 yards and three touchdowns. This total is down to 40 points, and the odds of five touchdowns being scored in a game where the total is 40 points is very unlikely. The NFL Odds value for a bet on the under is once again even money, and I see value.

[gameodds]16/226918/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]  

My Pick: ‘Under’ 4.5 (+100)

3 Unanswered Scores 

Chargers vs. Cowboys

While the games mentioned above could be on the lower side of the total, this game might be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend. This could be one of the better matchups for a back and forth game, and Bet365 is giving +130 if there are not three unanswered scores.

In picks like this, looking for a lower spread is key. On top of that I think there could be extra value because San Diego is a home underdog. Games like these are normally close and/or shootouts, with the score going back and forth all afternoon. The fact that these two don’t play one another much may also come in handy for this prop. Defenses likely won’t know much about what’s coming. Dallas could go right back to being the bad Cowboys, and San Diego is talented enough to keep up even if they don’t. I don’t see either team scoring three unanswered times.

My Pick: ‘No’ (+130)

[gameodds]16/226928/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]