NFL Picks: Week 4 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 24, 2013 3:50 PM GMT

After a rather unsuccessful set of predictions last week, let's try to bounce back in Week 4 of the NFL regular season.

Follow our week-by-week NFL odds coverage and check out our NFL Week 4 Betting Odds Report!

My three underdogs all lost last week, but for the year I am a still a positive 4-3-1 and look for the quick rebound this week on my NFL picks and start building back the profits.

Chicago winning, but almost mystically

The Bears are 3-0, leaving the Windy City in a state of euphoria, leading Green Bay by two games. Chicago scored 40 points at Pittsburgh; in spite of producing only 258 yards of offense (74 yards came on one drive). Chicago had a 5-0 edge in turnovers and the opposition has 11 miscues in three games, which says how aggressive the Bears defense has been and how sloppy the opponent has played.

The Monsters of the Midway are being outgained by 52 yards a game, hardly the profile of a winning team.

Detroit -at least statically- is the better team (+45 yards a game by yardage) and they are playing into triple revenge and at home as a small NFL odds favorite. Hawaii 5-0 might be moving to Friday’s, but I say “book’em Danno” on the Lions.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Detroit Lions -2.5 (-115) on the spread at Bet365

 

San Diego doesn’t know how to win

Over the last couple of years, the Chargers have blown a few big leads in colossal fashion and last Sunday in Tennessee, San Diego snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in permitting a 34-yard touchdown pass with 15 seconds remaining to lose 20-17.

After awhile, one begins to wonder if a squad like the Chargers really knows how to win, especially when the game is on the line, which in the NFL happens frequently.

Part of the Bolts conundrum is stopping the run, as opposing teams are rushing the ball effectively against them (ranked 26th), which explains why they are tied for 30th in yards per attempt allowed.

Dallas was on a mission before the season to run the ball better this year with a revamped offense line, which is gaining the respect of NFL football handicappers. The Cowboys are up to 4.3 yards a carry (3.6 in 2012), to go along with their strong weapons on the perimeter.

With the Boys essentially needing to just win the game based on the point spread and Dallas 8-2 ATS versus the AFC; I will back them on this value sports picks.

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NFL Pick: Take the Dallas Cowboys minus the points, -2 at William Hill

 

Atlanta as dependable as Ford pickup off a loss

The Falcons were another team which had a victory in hand and managed to find a way to lose in Miami. This was the second time already this season Atlanta was in position to win a contest and failed to in the clutch.

Nevertheless, the Birds are a galvanic 19-5 ATS after a loss with Mike Smith as coach.

Despite the 3-0 record, this is not your typical New England squad, averaging only 19.7 points a game. The defensive numbers look fantastic in surrendering just 11.3 PPG, but this is against offensively-challenged, Buffalo, the Jets and Tampa Bay.

Depending on the sportsbooks, Atlanta as of Monday night was anywhere from -1 to +1 and knowing a 1-3 start could place them potentially three games behind New Orleans, Atlanta continues to win and cover off a loss.

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NFL Pick: Back the Falcons on the spread, -1.5 at Ladbrokes

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