NFL Picks: Week 4 Monday Night Football Props & Picks

Matthew Jordan

Monday, October 5, 2015 6:26 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 5, 2015 6:26 PM GMT

Week 4 of the NFL season concludes Monday night as the Seahawks look to get to .500 against the vastly disappointing Detroit Lions. Let examine some game props for MNF from Bovada.

Odds by: 

Lions To Score First +160 (best line at BetOnline)
SeahawksTo Score First -185 (best line at 5Dimes)
Longest TD 41½ Ov +100 (best line at 5Dimes)
Longest TD 42½ Un-130 (best at SportsBetting)
Highest Score 1st Half +100 (best line at betDSI)
High Score 2H + OT -110 (best line at 5Dimes)
1st Score TD -150  (best line at BetOnline)
FG or Safety +135  (best line at Bookmaker)

 

Matthew Stafford 'Over/Under' 24.5 Completions, 256.5 Passing Yards, 1.5 TD Passes, .5 INTs
With a Detroit upset (not happening) on NFL odds, the 2015 season would be the first since realignment in 2002 in which all 32 teams registered at least one victory through the first four weeks. There are a lot of things wrong with the Lions this year. The defense was the second-best in the NFL last year but enters this game at No. 28, allowing 395.7 yards per game. Pro Bowl tackle Ndamukong Suh has sorely been  missed, even though he really hasn't done much with Miami and was a factor in the Dolphins firing Coach Joe Philbin on Monday. The Detroit running game simply doesn't exist. It's last in the NFL. But Stafford certainly has to take his share of the blame. Stafford, who counts $17.7 million against the salary cap this season -- fifth among quarterbacks after Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers -- ranks 25th in total value among all passers, according to Football Outsiders' metrics. He is 82-for-128 for 814 yards with five touchdowns and five picks -- he had only 12 interceptions all last year. The play-calling of coordinator Joe Lombardi has come under heavy criticism. Receiver Golden Tate said this week that other teams were calling out the Lions' plays before they were run. Coach Jim Caldwell says he's not yanking those duties from Lombardi ... yet. Now that  Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor is back on the field following his holdout, the Seahawks still have the NFL's best secondary. They are allowing only 186.0 passing yards per game. Seattle has yet to pick off a pass but has given up only three TD passes.

NFL Free Picks: 'OVER' all. The Lions aren't going to be able to run much and probably get down big so Stafford will be throwing all night.

 

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Russell Wilson O/U 19.5 Completions, 226.5 Passing Yards, 1.5 TD Passes, .5 INTs
Wilson is generally just a game manager. He doesn't usually put up big numbers as the Seahawks are an NFL rarity in that they are a run-first team. But Wilson might have to do more in this game because tailback Marshawn Lynch has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Wilson is completing 70.3 percent of his passes and has thrown just two interceptions in 101 attempts. He has been under pressure a lot this season as Seattle is using first-year starters up front in center Drew Nowak and right tackle Garry Gilliam. Wilson has been pressured on 32.3 percent of his dropbacks, fifth-highest in the NFL. The Lions are No. 27 against the pass, allowing 283.7 yards per game. They have allowed five TD passes and picked off three.

NFL Free Picks: 'OVER' completions and yards, 'UNDER' TDs and picks.

 

Ameer Abdullah O/U 39.5 Rushing Yards & Thomas Rawls O/U 68.5 Rushing Yards
With Lynch out, that means Rawls' stock rises. He's an undrafted rookie out of Central Michigan. Rawls burst onto the scene last week with 104 yards on 16 carries against Chicago after Lynch left with his injury. That's more yardage than any Lions tailback has managed in a game all season. It's actually more than any Lions tailback has managed all season (Abdullah leads with 82 yards), and is nearly as much as all the Lions tailbacks combined (115). The Seahawks also have veteran Fred Jackson, but he's used more in the passing game. The Lions defense is allowing 112 yards per game on the ground. With Joique Bell ruled out for this game, that means Abdullah, the rookie second-rounder from Nebraska, will start for the Lions. Seattle ranks 13th in the NFL in allowing 100.3 yards per game.

NFL Free Picks: 'UNDER' for Rawls and 'OVER' for Abdullah.

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