NFL Picks: Week 4 Game-by-Game Totals Betting Guide

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 3:21 PM GMT

Here’s a look at all 15 matchups scheduled in week 4 of the NFL season, complete with corresponding odds on the totals and our choice over-under NFL picks.

Week 4 ATS Picks

Week 4 ML Picks

Week 4 Betting Trends

Week 4 Team Props

Week 4 Player Props

Week 3 NFL Betting Recap
After bursting out of the gates with a solid 13-3 ATS, 11-5 SU and a 9-7 O/U record for our week 1 NFL picks, we suffered a setback in week 2. Quite a big one really. Happily, we bounced back across the board in week 3 with a 12-4 ATS and SU mark and an 8-8 O/U mark. Still room for improvement, particularly with our total picks. So let’s see about doing something towards that goal with the week 4 matchups before us in OVER-UNDER betting.
 

Total O/U Picks:
Week 1 Record: 9-7-0
Week 2 Record: 6-10-0
Week 3 Record: 8-8-0

 

Ravens vs. Steelers O/U 43, 43.5, 44
The winless Ravens kick off week 4 NFL betting at Heinz Field, desperate to snap the negative trend. They are 0-3 SU and ATS with a 4.7-point margin of defeat on average and a 2-1 record in O/U betting, which includes a run of two straight OVERS. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 2-1 SU but 3-0 ATS and 1-2 in O/U betting. The last game mustering up a 21-points combined. It’s a whole different ball game now that Big Ben is out and the Michael Vick era begins for the Steelers. Given all the uncertainties, it’s a tough one to pick across the board. The totals on this game are rather low, lower than the NFL average score this season ranging from 43-to-44 points. We’re liking the OVER 43, but feeling no joy.
NFL Picks: OVER 43 (-111) Betway

 

Jets vs. Dolphins O/U 41.5
The NY Jets and Miami Dolphins collide in week 4 NFL betting for a London clash that will kick off in the early morning hours. Dolphins have fallen short of preseason expectations with a 1-2 SU mark on the season, featuring only a win over the Redskins. Losses to the Jaguars and divisional rivals Bills followed, which are a cause for concern. Jets punched above their perceived weight class with wins over the Browns and Colts, but came back down to earth in a 24-17 loss to the Eagles. Overall, they are 2-1 in O/U betting. Jets are averaging 22-points per game and conceding the lowest tallies 13.7-points. Of all the games on the NFL odds board there seems to be unanimous consensus amongst bookies, rolling out a 41.5-point total across the board.
NFL Picks: UNDER 41.5 (-110) at Bet365

 

Panthers vs. Bucs O/U 40, 40.5
The NFC South clash between the Panthers and Bucs serves up one of the lowest totals trading on the NFL odds board in week 4 NFL betting, which isn’t overly surprising. Panthers are averaging 23.67 points per game and conceding just 16-points per game. The Bucs, meanwhile, are averaging just 16.3-points per game and are coming off a 9-point account against the Texans. In more ways than one, the UNDER seems to be the smart NFL pick here but we're leaning towards the OVER instead.
NFL Picks: OVER 40.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

 

Texans vs. Falcons O/U 47, 47.5
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 39-28 win over the Dallas Cowboys in week 3 NFL betting, improving their offensive contribution this season to 89-points through three games (29.67 points per game). In turn, they’ve conceded 72 points through three games, which yields 24 points per game. The Texans offense however hasn’t been performing up to expectations and is struggling to get more than 20-points on the board per game. We like the UNDER here as a result.
NFL Picks: UNDER 47.5 Betway

 

Jaguars vs. Colts O/U 47.5, 48
The Jaguars and Colts are both 1-2 SU going into week 4. Jaguars are coming off a huge 51-17 loss to the Patriots while the Colt are coming off a 35-33 nerve-biting win over the Titans. Both games hit the OVER in week 3 NFL betting, obviously. As such, week 4’s clash between these divisional rivals is trading at a high of 48-points. It’s interesting to note that early money coming down the wire is heavily leaning towards the OVER. That said seven of the last eight meetings between this pair has gone UNDER preconceived expectations. If you consider the offensive issues that have plagued the Colts this season are far from resolved, this game could go against the grain and hit the UNDER.
NFL Picks: UNDER 48 (-110) at BetOnline

 

Chiefs vs. Bengals O/U 44, 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs have cashed on the OVER in each and every game, a 3-0 O/U betting record that features a 12.7-point margin above pre-set totals. On the whole, they’ve averaged 26.3-points per game. What’s cost them though is penalties and defensive mistakes that yield a 29.7-points conceded. The Bengals are 2-1 in O/U betting, which compliments their 3-0 SU and ATS record that features a 9.7-point winning margin.
NFL Picks: OVER 44 (-110) at 5Dimes

 

Giants vs. Bills O/U 46, 46.5 47
The Bills are averaging a whopping 33.3-points this season through three games. So much for the defensive-minded Bills. After the Cardinals (42-points per game) and the Patriots (39.7-points per game), the Bills are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at early doors. Giants haven’t been too shabby on the offensive-side either, scoring 26-points on average from game-to-game. If these NFL betting trends hold true in week 4, this game could crack the OVER. Sportsbooks are trading the total anywhere from 46-to47-points. We’re going with the OVER 46 on our NFL picks.
NFL Picks: OVER 46 (-110) Betway

 

Raiders vs. Bears O/U 44, 44.5
The Raiders are 2-1 in O/U betting while the Bears are a whopping 0-3 in O/U betting. Raiders’ offense seems to be clicking at full cylinders since week 2’s win over the Ravens while the Bears are just woeful on both sides of the ball. This is a tossup on our NFL picks, but after last week’s abysmal 26-0 loss to the Bears, we’re leaning towards the UNDER on our NFL picks here.
NFL Picks: UNDER 44.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

 

Eagles vs. Redskins O/U 47, 47.5
The Eagles have hit the UNDER in three straight games, going against preseason expectations that vaulted their offense to unimaginable heights. An average of 19.3-points a game is well below expectations that had them in the 30-plus range. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank amongst the top defences in the league right now allowing just 19.6-points per game. This game could go OVER if the Eagles get things going on offense, but we’re not quite sure they are there yet.
NFL Picks: UNDER 47.5 (-110) Westgate

 

Browns vs. Chargers O/U 45, 45.5
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 SU and ATS with a 4.7-point margin of defeat but they are a perfect 3-0 in O/U betting, largely down to low totals that have traded on their games – 38, 41 and 44 (in that order) through the first three weeks. Of course, issues on both sides of the ball have also factored. They are averaging just UNDER 20-points a game scored and conceding 24-points per game.  The Chargers aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard with a 1-2 O/U record to go along with their 1-2 SU and ATS record. They’ve been outscored 66-to-83 in three games. Both offenses can be inconsistent, but the Chargers are a different story at home.
NFL Picks: UNDER 45.5 (-110) at BetOnline

 

Packers vs. 49ers O/U 47.5 48, 48.5
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put in a clinic in week 3 NFL betting, beating the Chiefs 38-28. The win improves the Packers to 3-0 SU and ATS and 2-1 in O/U betting. The only game to hit the UNDER was week 2’s 27-17 win over the Seahawks at Lambeau that came well UNDER the 49-total. In both other games, however, the Packers easily cracked both a 48 and 47-point total by hanging 30-plus points on their opponents. Overall, the Packers are averaging 32 points per game and conceding 22.8-points per game. Niners, meanwhile, have been abysmal since a week 1 20-3 win over the Vikings. Last week, they had their worst performance as a team in a 47-7 loss to the Cardinals.
NFL Picks: OVER 47.5 (-110) BetDSI

 

Vikings vs. Broncos O/U 41.5, 42.5
The Broncos are riding the momentum of a 3-0 SU and ATS mark to start the season, which includes an 8.3-point margin of victory. However, they are 1-2 in OVER-UNDER betting having gone UNDER expectations in week 1 and 3. Broncos’ defense is the best it’s been in years, leading the NFL in total defense (777 yards). They are the top defense against the pass (176.3 yards per game allowed) and sixth in run defense with 82.7 yards allowed per game. That takes a lot of the pressure off the 39-year-old Peyton Manning. Nevertheless, the Broncos are averaging 25-points per game approximately over the last three games, 27.5-points on average in the last two games. On the flipside, the Vikings are averaging 20-points per game, but if we take out week 1’s rather lopsided 20-3 loss to the Niners, they’ve averaged 28.5-points over the last two games. What this suggests is that both had nervy starts to the season, but now are slowly rounding out into form. Broncos are 1-2 in O/U betting while the Vikings are 0-3 in O/U betting. However, the 41.4-point total does look rather low, so we’re going with the OVER on our NFL picks.
NFL Picks: OVER 41.5 (-110) Betway

 

Rams vs. Cardinals O/U 42
The Cardinals blaze through the first three rounds of the season, scoring 126 points (the most of any team over the span of three weeks) and conceding 49 points ( tied with the Broncos as the fourth lowest points allowed in the league, after the Jets (41), Packers (470, Panthers (47)). Not only are the Cardinals 3-0 SU and ATS but also they are 3-0 in O/U betting, clearing the total by an average of 12-points approximately. If that’s not a case for the OVER what is? Granted, the Rams defense is pretty stout and leads the NFL with 13 sacks, but they are conceding an average of 22.3 points per game and their offense isn’t quite keeping up with just 16.6-points per game on average, and just 8-points per game in the last two games. St. Louis might be 1-2 in O/U betting, but if the Cardinals continue to dictate play it’s hard to see how this game doesn’t go OVER 42 points.
NFL Picks: OVER 42 (-110) at BetOnline

 

Cowboys vs. Saints O/U 48
Consider this game is almost sure to feature one backup quarterback, possibly another if Drew Brees doesn’t suit up, it’s really anybody’s guess as to the outcome across the board, be it SU, ATS or Totals. Saints have recently announced Drew Brees will start the game, but he's obviously not going to be 100%. And he'll have to deal with a Saints defense that is determined to make his life harder than it needs be by allowing 28 points per game and 397 yards against on average so far, which is the fourth worst mark in the league. Cowboys may be without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, but they put up quite a fight against the Atlanta Falcons last week and Brandon Weeden wasn't too shabby in his starting debut this season. The totals are running on the 48-point mark on the NFL odds board, which is a high total considering the uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball. That said shoddy defending could turn this into a shootout. 
NFL Picks: OVER 48 (-105) 5Dimes

 

Lions vs. Seahawks O/U 43, 43.5
The Detroit Lions were supposed to be one of the elite offenses of the NFL season, so thought many NFL betting analysts. Three weeks into the season, the theory needs a rewrite. Not only are the Lions 0-3 SU and ATS, but they are also losing games on average by a 9-point differential. Offense has accounted for 56-points (18.67 points per game) and defense has conceded 83-points (a staggering 27.67 points per game). On the flipside, the Seahawks have scored 74 points (24.67 points per game on average) and conceded 61 points (20.3-points per game). Both sides are 1-2-0 in OVER-UNDER betting, which includes a run of back-to-back UNDERs cashing in their respective week 2 and 3 encounters.

Lines on this game range from 43-to-43.5 points in total betting markets with the lean amongst NFL betting analysts on the UNDER it would seem, even though trends show that the OVER has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these outfits. We’re of a mind to go with the OVER with our NFL picks.
NFL Picks: OVER 43 (-110) at 5Dimes