The NFL odds are out for Week 4 of the NFL Regular Season so let’s take a look at some current Point Spreads for all 16 games, differences between Monday’s openers and last week’s Advanced Line, etc.
Week 4 opens up with a big game for the Ravens against the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Thursday night, then sees a game played in London’s Wembley Stadium between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets early Sunday before wrapping up next Monday night with the Detroit Lions in Seattle facing the Seahawks in a must-win, will-likely-lose game in the Emerald City.
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Baltimore Ravens -2½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 212, NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET/5:25 p.m. PT): The favorites flipped here because of the injury to Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) QB Ben Roethlisberger (41-43 ATS), so it’s Michael Vick conducting the Steelers train now, and he’ll get his first start here against QB Joe Flacco (31-26-1 ATS at Home) and the Baltimore Ravens (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, vs. Bengals) in the Week 4 NFC North showdown from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh which is a must-win for the winless Blackbirds.
The NFL Games of the Year (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) had this lined at Steelers as 3-point favorites, and with Baltimore having opened up with San Diego-Denver-Cincinnati, Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh (68-57-4 ATS) has to come up with the near perfect game-plan here. Steelers WR Martavis Bryant will still be out and serving the last game of his 4-game Suspension. Trend-wise, Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Ravens—not including the Playoffs—and in this Regular Season game here last year at Heinz Field, the Steelers rolled to a 43-23 victory as 2½-point favorites, although the last time they met here in the Steel City was in the opening round of the AFC Playoffs where Baltimore ousted the Steelers, 30-17 as 3-point underdogs.
Here, with Vick at QB for Pittsburgh and Baltimore so nervous about losing, expect a lower-scoring chess-match type football game possibly similar to the one Pittsburgh just played on Sunday in St. Louis (Steelers won 12-6). With the Totals numbers in the marketplace seemingly a little high, it’s tempting to side with the Under (44½ ,Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) here, but with primetime football games seemingly always exploding Over in the end—Redskins vs. Giants last Thursday—it’s probably best to lay off here or take a chance on the Ravens and Flacco. And laying off is always good when doubt creeps in. This is a tough handicap, but is a big game and could be a very entertaining watch. If the Steelers win, neither them or the Cincinnati Bengals will likely have to care about Baltimore competing for the title in the AFC North his season.
Sunday, October 4, 2015
New York Jets -1½ vs. Miami Dolphins (CG Technology) (CBS, Directv 212, NFL RedZone, 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT): The Advanced Line on this game had the Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) slight 1-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), while the Opening Line saw the game at Pick ‘Em, and now (Monday night) the New York Jets (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are up to 2-point favorites most everywhere as perceived Smart Money backs the new-look Jets. New York CB Darrelle Revis (Hamstring) has a niggling injury but should be fine and locking down Dolphins receivers here in the United Kingdom where there will be no distinct Homefield Advantage with this game being played in London, England. The Jets have allowed an NFL-low 41 points this season and have to be feeling better about themselves than Miami and this early line movement and flow of money on Gang Green speaks volumes. This game will mean much more to Miami who are 3-0 ATS the L3 vs the Jets, but the feel here is that the Jets are just a better overall football team, even with the Fish signing NT Ndamukong Suh. This line may keep trickling up.
NFL Pick: Jets -1½ (CG Technology)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts -8½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 708, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Advanced Line was -7, now up to 8½ and even 9 in some places as perceptions that the Colts are alive after Sunday’s come-from-behind win over the Titans in Indianapolis and that their AFC South rivals and the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) being thrashed at New England. So are the Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS; at Titans Sunday) and QB Andrew Luck (17-7-2 ATS at Home) back? One thing’s for sure: The Colts are luck they call the AFC South home where all three residents are 1-3. Expect a better performance from Indianapolis—whose Head Coach Chuck Pagano (25-18-1 ATS) said Monday this will be his last year at the helm—here and the Defense and entire team making a better effort to play hard right from the opening kickoff and for all four quarters. In this game here last season, the Colts won 23-3 as massive 13-point favorites, and Indianapolis—who went 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS vs. the AFC South—also won and easily covered (-5½) the meeting at Jacksonville, winning by 27 points (44-17). The Colts are 5-0 ATS the L5 vs. the Jaguars. Expect a much better performance from the hosts now that Fear has crept in.
NFL Pick: Colts -8½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons -6 (Pinnacle) (CBS, Directv 705, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Houston Texans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) rode with Ryan Mallett (24/39, 220 yards, TD) at QB on Sunday against the Buccaneers and got their first win (and cover), 19-9, at NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday. The Advanced Line for this game next Sunday was Falcons (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) -3½, but you can see, there has been a big numeric reaction after the Falcons looked so good on Sunday, rallying to saddle the Cowboys, 39-28 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as RB Devonta Freeman (30 rushes, 131 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Julio Jones (12 receptions, 164 yards, 2 TDs). Atlanta is looking as good as it has in years under new Head Coach Dan Quinn and Jones already has 34 receptions—a high for three games in NFL history—but the Texans had a nice performance from a RB in Alfred Blue (31 rushes, 139 yards, TD) and this team can play Defense (60 Points Allowed) with numerous studs like JJ Watt, Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney, so there may be value in grabbing the talented Texans +6½ or waiting for it to possibly trickle up to 7 (or higher), which it very well could if perceptions saw it rise from 3½ to 6½ after the weekend performances of both.
NFL Pick: Texans +6½ (Pinnacle)
Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (FOX, Directv 705, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Carolina Panthers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) and QB Cam Newton (20-16-1 ATS on Road) head to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Sunday to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, at Texans Sunday) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston in a big NFC South game from the Sunshine State for the hosts. Last season, the Buccaneers lost in this game, 20-14, and failed to cover as 4½-point favorites in Week 1 in Carolina while Tampa Bay covered, but lost as 3½-underdogs at Home in Tampa, 19-17. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS the L4 against the Buccaneers and it seems there’s still a pretty decent-sized chasm between these two teams. Carolina and Newton (20/31, 315 yards, 2 TDs) looked pretty good Sunday as TE Greg Olsen (8 receptions, 134 yards, 2 TDs) had a nice day in the Panthers 27-22 win over the New Orleans Saints in Charlotte.
NFL Pick: Panthers -3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills -6½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (FOX, Directv 709, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Advanced Line was -5½, so a little love for the Buffalo Bills (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) after their impressive 41-14 romp over the Dolphins in Miami Gardens on Sunday as RB Karlos Williams (12 rushes, 110 yards, TD) helped Buffalo improve to 2-1. Eli Manning (49-40-2 on Road) and the New York Giants (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) are also coming off a win (against the Redskins last Thursday night), and the G-Men will be well-rested for this Empire State tackle-fest on Sunday afternoon. The last time these two teams played was in the 2011/12 Regular Season when the Giants won 27-24 as 3-point favorites in New Jersey (Push), while the last time these two met here in Buffalo at Ralph Wilson Stadium in 2007, New York NFC won outright and more than covered as 2½-point underdogs, 38-21. The Giants are 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings, but this is a really a tough spot for the Giants and Odell Beckham who seem to be badly mis-matched on the Defensive side of the football. Bills RB Lesean McCoy (Hamstring) is not expected to play according to the NFL Network on Tuesday.
Oakland Raiders -3 vs. Chicago Bears (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 706, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Point Spread in this game speaks volumes. Until last week (Browns), the Oakland Raiders (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) hadn’t won a game in the Eastern Time Zone in 15 tries, so for a team with the recent track record of the Silver and Black to actually be favored here at Soldier Field in Chicago against the Bears (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) speaks to how bad Chicago has become and how improved this Oakland team is with David carr at QB and Rookie WR Amari Cooper who has a good shot at making this team a player. Having Bears starting QB Jay Cutler (Hamstring) out and being replaced by backup Jimmy Clausen Sunday is also a reason this number is where it is. Chicago WE Alshon Jeffery is listed as Probable) The last time these two teams met (2011), the Raiders won 25-20 as 3-point favorites in Oakland, while the last time these two played here in the Windy City (2007), the Bears won, 17-6, covering as 3½-point chalks. Chicago has held the upper edge and made the money in this series of late, going 8-2 ATS over the L10 vs. Oakland and 4-0 ATS the L4 here at Soldier Field, but that was in much better times and when this team wasn’t one of the worst in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. Washington Redskins (MGM Mirage) (FOX, Directv 711, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Advanced Line here was -2½, so the Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) win at the Jets combined with Washington’s loss last Thursday night at the Giants has put this number now at or over the Key Number of 3 now in most sportsbooks in Sin City, Online and Offshore (3s and 3½s). With QB Sam Bradford (14-12 ATS on Road), the Eagles will have a better QB here—the Washington Redskins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) have been starting Kirk Cousins—here in Landover, Maryland at FedEx Field on Sunday in this Week 4 NFC East meeting. Last season in this game here, the Eagles lost to Washington, 27-24 as 7-point favorites, while Philadelphia won 37-34 at Home in the return leg in the City Of Brotherly Love, also failing to cover, this time as 4-point underdogs. With no overpowering, recent, relevant Trends and a Bradford-Cousins (or maybe a Bradford-Colt McCoy?) QB matchup, this seems like a opportunity to back the Eagles. And even though the final score may not be close in the end, getting Philadelphia at -3 or less is just smart betting. It may be hard to find (Eagles minus) 3s later in the week. Eagles RB Demarco Murray is currently listed as Probable.
NFL Pick: Eagles -3 (MGM Mirage)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals -3 -120 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 707, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT): The Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and QB Alex Smith (29-25-2 ATS on Road) may be a little tired in this Week 4 game against the Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday after battling (and losing to) the Packers in Green Bay at Lambeau Field on Monday night. The last time these two AFC teams played, the Bengals pounded the Chiefs in Kansas City, winning 28-7 as 3-point favorites in 2012 at Arrowhead Stadium, while in the last meeting here in the Queen City, Cincinnati won 17-10 but failed to cover as big 12½-favorites. With Kansas City coming in off just 6 Days Rest, playing the second of back-to-back Road games and the Bengals stacked at the Skill Position spots with QB Andy Dalton (19-13-2 ATS at Home), WRs AJ Green and Marvin Jones, TE Tyler Eifert and RBs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, the red-hot Bengals should outscore the visiting Chiefs by around 8-11 and remain unbeaten SU and ATS.
NFL Pick: Bengals -3 -120 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Cleveland Browns vs. San Diego Chargers -7½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (CBS, Directv 712, NFL RedZone, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT): Two 1-2 teams in need of a win here at Qualcomm Stadium in sunny San Diego on Sunday afternoon in this quirky AFC inter-divisional tilt between the host San Diego Chargers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and the Cleveland Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS). Two good things for the Bolts and QB Philip Rivers (42-34-1 ATS at Home): They will be at Home and they will have the much better team, so this could get ugly. The last time these two met was in 2012 when the host Browns edged the Chargers, 7-6, covering as 3-point underdogs in an one of the lowest scoring games in the NFL in the last decade, while the last meeting here in San Diego was way back in 2006 where the Chargers won 32-25, failing to cover as big, 12½-point chalks.
The Browns are 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. San Diego, but with the 3-hour Body Clock Time Difference (EDT v PDT), the long flight, this may be a hard game for the Browns to find a way to get an edge, especially with Josh McCown (Probable) or Johnny Manziel trying to out-gun a real gunslinger in Rivers (890 yards, 5 TDs) who has some nice targets in WRs Malcom Floyd (7 receptions, 147 yards, TD) and Keenan Allen (29 receptions, 315 yards, 2 TDs) and TE Ladarius Green (10 receptions, 121 yards, TD) who is filling in for the suspended Antonio Gates (Eligible Week 5) and this one is a Chargers lean, although buying the ½ point off 7½ would be recommended, even with the change in the Extra Points rules and theoretically more random and choppy Final Scores.
Green Bay Packers -9 vs. San Francisco 49ers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (FOX, NFL RedZone, Directv 715, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): A 9-point Road underdog already? Yes Thelma, the Advanced Line of -6½ did not quite do justice to the perceived depths to which the San Francisco 49ers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and QB Colin Kaepernick (10-11 ATS at Home) have apparently fallen for this Sunday afternoon NFC meeting from The City By The Bay with QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
The last time these two historic NFL franchises met, the 49ers won 23-20 in the first round of the 2012 NFC Playoffs in Green Bay as 3-point favorites, so you can see how much perceptions of these two teams have really changed over the last four seasons, and the Offseason flight of so many players and coaches. The two teams also met in Week 1 that season in San Francisco, where the 49ers won and barely covered as 5½-point favorites, 34-28. The 49ers are 3-2-1 over the L6 vs. the Cheeseheads and this is one of those games where anything could happen and few would be surprised. This is a tough spot for Green Bay, coming off tough back-to-back games against Seattle and Kansas City, flying the 2,268 miles to Frisco, staying in a hotel, and losing two hours on their Midwestern Body Clocks (CDT) and playing in Santa Clara (PDT).
The way Kaepernick looked in Sunday’s massacre at Arizona combined with the way Rodgers has been looking with pinpoint precision, it seems the on looks in this game would be toward the favorites from Green Bay and possibly the Over. It is in San Francisco and Rodgers (34-18-3 ATS Road) and the Packers aren’t nearly as dominating away from Home, and they will be playing three hours (CDT to PDT) off their Midwestern Body Clocks and with one day’s less Rest than the 49ers (6 to 7) and they will have all that Travel, but still, Green Bay is now thinking about Homefield advantage in the Playoffs (even this early) and eyeballing the other 3-0 NFC teams (Arizona Atlanta, Carolina) and waiting for the defending conference champ Seattle Seahawks (1-2) to get back to their position in the mix.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos -6½ (bet365), Sports Authority Stadium, Denver, Colorado (FOX, Directv 714, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): The Minnesota Vikings (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) head west to Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday to meet the unbeaten Denver Broncos (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) and 39-year-old QB Peyton Manning (73-58-5 ATS at Home) in a big game for Minnesota, but a tough task in the Rocky Mountains, at 5,280-feet Altitude. With the Point Spread moving so solidly to 6 so early in the week (Monday), the thought is that this number may creep up to 7 and possibly beyond with the General Public’s proclivity to bet the Favorites and remember the last thing that they have seen (Broncos winning Sunday night). Minnesota will also be losing 2 hours off their Body Clocks—the game will start at an odd 3:25 p.m. CT in the Vikings rhythms—and have to endure Travel, a bus, a hotel, another bus and all that crap and wasted minutes that comes with being the Road team. Denver has W9 straight Regular Season games at Home and expect WRs Thomas and Sanders and TE Owen Daniels to all help Denver get the win and the close cover. The Advanced Line here was -5½. Broncos RB CJ Anderson is listed as Probable.
NFL Pick: Broncos -6½ -105 (Bet365)
St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals -6½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) (FOX, Directv 713, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): The Advanced Line here in this NFC West matchup on Sunday afternoon was Arizona Cardinals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) -4 over the St. Louis Rams (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), and now up to -6½, you can see the oddsmakers respect for what Arizona has done and their sexy-looking (and legit) 3-0 start. The Cardinals (+77 PD) have scored an NFL-high 126 points—in great part because of romps over the devolving San Francisco 49ers on Sunday (47-7) and the lowly Chicago Bears in Week 2 (48-23)—and with QB Carson Palmer (28-26 ATS vs. NFC West) back and healthy, WR Larry Fitzgerald (11 receptions, 134 yards, 2 TDs in win vs. 49ers on Sunday) putting up some nice numbers and the Cardinals Defense sound as usual, it looks like last season wasn’t a fluke.
And with Head Coach Bruce Arians (23-11-1 ATS) bringing consistency and the team playing better every week, Arizona may actually be able to make a run at an NFL Championship in their own stadium if they can dance the dangerous NFC Minefield to get there. The Cardinals are now a fantastic 24-11-1 ATS in their L36 Regular and Postseason games, and even though the St. Louis Rams (CDT) will be losing 2 Hours off their Body Clocks playing in the Sonoran Desert (MST), also seem to be on the upswing and that this is a big NFC West game, the Cardinals are now in a major groove and this one’s at Home. And, like the Broncos game above, this Point Spread could rise to 7 by kickoff.
NFL Pick: Cardinals -6½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints No Line (NBC, 8:30 p.m. EDT/5:30 p.m. PDT): Poor NBC dreamed of a Tony Romo vs. Drew Brees primetime QB Battle and instead the network might be getting a Brandon Weeden vs. Luke McCown drivel-fest instead. Maybe 60 Minutes (CBS) will be fresh next Sunday? Lara Logan can you hear me? Here, the Dallas Cowboys (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) head to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the New Orleans to face the hapless New Orleans Saints (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) and possibly a QB (Brees) with a serious Shoulder-injury. Brees chirped about how he was aiming to play on Monday, but the Saints signal caller did the same thing last week and ended up not being able to play
. It’s always a good idea to take what an injured QB (or any other position for that matter) says to a reporter on a Monday or Tuesday about his physical status or intentions to play the coming week with a grain of salt. They always want to play and unless the player is completely beat up and unable to go, we will never know it from your computers and mobile devices. Anyway, no Romo, Brees a big question mark and beat-up nonetheless and backup Luke McCown ready to make the start again if he has to. So, no Point spread for now. The last time these two met here (2013), New Orleans crunched the Cowboys, 49-17 as 6-point chalks, while last season when these two played in Dallas, the Cowboys rode off into the horizon with a 38-17 win as 3-point underdogs. The Saints are 8-3 ATS the L11 vs. the Cowboys and New Orleans is 5-1 ATS the L6 here at Home in the Superdome. There are plenty of better games to bet on the betting board and the feel here is for the Over.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks -9 (MGM Mirage), CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington (ESPN/WatchESPN, Directv 206, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): The defending NFC champions Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and QB Russell Wilson (23-9-2 ATS at Home) got their Mojo back on Sunday, shutting out the Chicago Bears and seeing S Kam Chancellor wisely return from his holdout in Seattle, while the the visiting Detroit Lions (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) pretty much saw their season probably come to an early end after a 24-12 loss to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday Night Football.
Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch did hurt his Hamstring in the win over the Bears and he did have an MRI performed on Monday, but it‘s a minor thing and he should be OK and starting here in primetime against Detroit. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings at Home and with the Lions who will be traveling 2,350 miles, losing 3 Times Zones (EDT to PDT) and Seattle will have a healthy QB (Wilson) while the Lions Stafford still nurses a Shoulder injury. And going into a game against the Seahawks in Seattle with a gimpy QB when they’re as motivated as they are now usually isn’t a safe thing for opponents. The Seahawks registered a shutout against Chicago and will shoot for one here vs. Detroit and are a much better team with Chancellor back who is worth much more (by his sheer presence) than the oddsmakers can account for (Chancellor’s presence may not even be perceived as a ½-point thing by oddsmakers).
NFL Pick: Seahawks -9 (William Hill)
NFL Week 4 PIcks: Jets -1½ over Dolphins; Colts -8½ over Jaguars; Texans +6½ over Falcons; Panthers -3 over Buccaneers; Eagles -3 over Redskins; Bengals -3 -120 over Chiefs; Broncos -6½ -105 over Vikings; Cardinals -6½ over Rams; Seahawks -9 over Lions.