NFL Picks: Week 4 Game-by-Game Odds Preview & Predictions

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 7:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 7:14 PM UTC

Game lines are in full swing for the majority of week 4’s slate of NFL betting action, so without further ado, here’s a quick rundown of the matchups and our NFL picks.

Giants +3.0 at Redskins -3.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Kirk Cousins could be playing himself into the starting job in Washington. The backup is making most of his opportunity. He led the Redskins (1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS) to their first win on the season by beating the Jaguars 41-10, and then he matched Nick Foles almost score for score in Sunday’s highly entertaining NFC East showdown that ended 37-34 to the Eagles. Cousins went 30-of-48 for a whopping 427 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. 

Eli Manning and the Giant’s O-line finally made an appearance in the regular season. Manning went 21-of-28 for 234 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-17 victory over the Texans. The best bit: Eli Manning had no interceptions for the first time since last season. Giants are 1-2 SU and ATS.

Giants finally got their offense going while the Redskin’s offense has been moving at a dynamic pace with Cousins at centre. This is a close one to call, mainly because we’re not sure if the Giants are better now. But we’re fairly certain the Redskins are improved since Cousins fits into the new offensive scheme better than RGIII.  Forced to make an NFL pick therefore, Redskins with home advantage should pull through (Redskins are 3-3 ATS as favourites since 2013, 2-2 ATS as home favourites. They are also 18-18 ATS since 2012 overall).

NFL Picks: Redskins -3.0


Bills +3.0 at Texans -3.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Both the Bills and Texans came crashing down to earth in week 3, their bids for a 3-0 start on the season thwarted by the Chargers and Giants, respectively. Both EJ Manuel (3 sacks and 1 interception) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (3 interceptions and 2 sacks) had their fair share of struggles last week. Each will be looking to bounce back with a much better performance in week 4 in the battle of 2-1 teams. Buffalo Bills are 4-11-0 ATS as the road underdogs since 2012. Houston Texans are 7-7 ATS as home favourites over the same span.

NFL Picks: Texans -3.0


Panthers +3.0 at Ravens -3.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Ravens are after a second straight win while the Panthers are afPaclter their first loss on the season. Something is going to give as both take a 2-1 SU record into week 4. Ravens have home field advantage, which is typically deciding in straight-up betting. Against the spread, they are 1-1 at home this season and 8-7 as the home favourites since 2012. Carolina Panthers are a stellar 8-1-0 ATS as the road underdogs since 2012, which makes a good case for the cover by the visitors.

NFL Picks: Panthers +3.0


Lions -1.5 at Jets +1.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Detroit Lions are after a big win over Green Bay on Sunday, beating the Packers 19-7 all while laying the points. Lions are 2-1 SU and ATS going into week 4. And every indication is that early NFL betting is falling in line with the Lions – most likely, highly influenced by the convincing rout over the Packers. The Lions, however, are a different animal on the road than at home: they are 6-11-0 ATS and 5-12 SU on the road since 2012. They are still looking for their first road win this season.

The Jets are 1-2 SU going into week 4, 1-1 SU at home this season. Although they are after a defeat to Chicago and matched as the 1.5-point underdogs, they have talent and weapons to work with so they shouldn’t be written off entirely. The Jets were 6-2 SU at home last season and 9-8-0 ATS at home since 2012. Although the Jets are yet to cover this season (0-2-1), they went 9-6-1 last season overall ATS, which includes a 6-2 ATS mark as home team.

NFL Picks: Jets +1.5


Packers -1.5 at Bears +1.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Green Bay Packers are yet to cover this season, going 0-2-1 in three games. Most concerning, they are winless on the road having lost both their opening games – to Seattle at loud-and-proud Century-Link in week 1 and last week’s clash with the Lions in Detroit. Packers are 8-11 ATS as the road team since 2012, but the Bears are a disappointing 4-12-1 ATS as the home team over the same span.

NFL Picks: Packers -1.5


Dolphins -4.5 at Raiders +4.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders collide at Wembley Stadium in London, England in week 4 NFL betting. Both teams are struggling – Dolphins have lost two in a row since beating New England sensationally to open the season while the Raiders are winless thus far. This game could go either way as travel/ jet lag are sure to factor. Raiders are after a 16-9 defeat to the Patriots, covering as the 14-point underdogs. They are 6-3-1 ATS away since 2013 and 9-8-1 ATS away since 2012.   

NFL Picks: Raiders +4.5


Bucs +7.0 at Steelers -7.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Steelers showed some life again (finally) when they beat the Panthers 37-19 on the road to improve 2-1 SU and pick up their first cover of the season (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, it’s hard to see how the Bucs (0-3 SU and ATS) pick up the pieces after last week’s debacle against the Falcons. More to the point, how does one trust the Bucs to cash in?  Bucs are 2-6 ATS since 2013 as the road underdogs.

NFL Picks: Steelers -7.0


Titans +7.0 at Cols -7.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Indianapolis Colts finally got into the win column with a straightforward routing of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Beating the hapless Jaguars isn’t confidence-building stuff, but breaking their duck in order to get their first ‘W’ and avoiding a disastrous 0-3 start on the season is. The Colts are 14-4-0 ATS at home since 2012 as well as 7-4-0 ATS as the home favourite. Since beating the Chiefs on opening day, the Tennessee Titans came crashing back down to earth with back-to-back defeats. They’ll be desperate to get back into the win column at the expense of their AFC South rivals, but trends stand against them – they are 1-9 against the Colts at home in their last ten meetings, including a narrow 30-27 defeat to the Colts last season on the road. (Their last win over the Colts was a 27-10 win in 2011). What’s more, the Titans are a depressing 4-10-0 ATS as the away underdogs since 2012.

NFL Picks: Colts -7


Jaguars +13.0 at Chargers -13.0
NFL Betting Analysis: This is the first time this season the Chargers are matched as the favourites against the spread. Few doubt the Chargers (2-1) will win this game, given how efficiently they handled the Seahawks and how they backed it up with a win over the Bills on the road. The question is if they are worth that many points against the Jaguars (0-3 SU and ATS). The resounding answer is, yes. So far the Jaguars have been leaking points like nobody’s business – they allowed 119 points to get by them already, which is a staggering average of almost 40 points per game (39.66). To counter that, they’ve put up just a paltry 44 points over three games, which yields an average of 14.6 points per game.

NFL Picks: Chargers -13.0


Falcons -3.0 at Vikings +3.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Given the Atlanta Falcons’ recent win over the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s hardly surprising to find them matched as the favourites against the spread. Given the Vikings are in all sorts of trouble right now however, a field-goal line does seem rather disingenuous. This is the first time this season the Falcons travel as the road favourites, so it remains to be seen whether they can live up to those expectations. But if disembowelling the Buccaneers were any indication, they must be good to lay the points, and then some.

NFL Picks: Falcons -3


Eagles +4.5 at Niners -4.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Undefeated Eagles (3-0 and 2-1 ATS) are 4.5-point underdogs ahead of their date with a listless Niners side that was unable to hold on to a lead as it countered with ZERO offense in the second half. The bad news for the Niners is that the Eagles are 4-0 SU in San Francisco in their last four outings. Nick Foles and the Eagles have established themselves as the comeback Kings this season while the Niners are quickly gaining a reputation for second half collapses. At first glance, putting those opposing realities against one another, one has to like the Eagles to cover as the 4.5-points pups. Of course, the Niners have home advantage and they are desperate for a home win at Levi Stadium. If they could just sort out whatever issues they’ve got going now before the Eagles swoop in – they have the offensive weapons, obviously – they could come through yet.  We’re not ready to give up on the Niners just yet, even though we accept that Nick Foles and the Eagles are really that good.

NFL Picks: Niners -4.5


Saints -3.0 at Cowboys +3.0
NFL Betting Analysis: New Orleans Saints finally snapped the negative trend with a win over the Vikings at home, laying the points as the 9.5-point chalk. On the road, however, the Saints have been underwhelming this season. They have been so for some time in fact. Last season, they only went 3-5 SU on the road and they were 0-4 ATS as the road favourites last season. Add to that a 0-2 ATS record as the away favourites this season and they are a dazzling 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road faves. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have recovered brilliantly since their opening debacle at home against the Niners. Reeling off two straight victories, the Cowboys are 2-1 SU and ATS. Last season, the Cowboys were a solid 6-2 ATS as underdogs and 2-0 ATS as home underdogs.

NFL Picks: Cowboys +3


Patriots -4.0 at Chiefs +4.0 
NFL Betting Analysis: Patriots (2-1 SU) descend on the Chiefs (1-2 SU) in week 4. The Patriots opened the season on a defeat to the Dolphins but rebounded with back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Raiders. Chiefs, meanwhile, recovered from a lacklustre start to the Titans to give the Broncos a run for their money in week 2 before finally breaking their duck and getting into the win column at the expense of the Dolphins in Miami in week 3. Patriots are 1-2 ATS this season, and there are growing concerns about their offense, which left much to be desired against the Raiders. (Were they just playing down to the opponent?) Chiefs, on the other hand, perked up in week 2 and their momentum has been building since. They are 2-1 ATS ahead of week 4 and could prove the savvy pick as NFL odds list them at 4-point home underdogs.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +4

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