NFL Picks: Week 4 Game-by-Game ATS Picks & Predictions

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 8:43 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 8:43 PM UTC

We preview each and every game in week 4 NFL betting, complete with NFL picks against the spread. Check out all 15 matchups and where we spot the value for your betting thrills.

NFL Week 3 Betting Recap
After a sensational week 1, we crashed and burned in week 2. Happily, we bounce back brilliantly in week 3 with a solid 12-4 mark on our ATS NFL Picks. Overall, through three weeks of NFL picks we improve to 29-19-0 against the spread, which gives us a 61% winning ratio. Not bad at all.

Week 1 Record: 13-3
Week 2 Record: 4-12 Uuuuff!
Week 3 Record: 12-4

Week 4 is on the horizon and it promises to be another standout week. It’s the first bye week of the season, with the Patriots and Titans sitting out. Not to mention it’s the first week that features a London clash when the Jets and Dolphins collide at Wembley Stadium. So without further ado, let’s get cracking with our NFL picks for week 4 in this weekly game-by-game instalment for SBR.

Week 4 ML Picks

Week 4 Total Picks

Week 4 Betting Trends

Week 4 Team Props

Week 4 Player Props

Ravens vs. Steelers +3
The Baltimore Ravens have slipped to a 0-3 SU and ATS start on the season, which includes a 4.7-point margin of defeat on average. On the road, they are 0-2 ATS with a 5-point margin of defeat on average. Last week, the Ravens came close to clinching their first win of the season, only for the Bengals to rally late in the fourth quarter and snatch the win out of their desperate grasp. It’s the third road game of the season for the Ravens in four weeks, after back-to-back road trips in the first two weeks. It’s also a short turnaround this week with a Thursday Night Football clash at Heinz Field. Nevertheless, the Ravens are installed as the road favourites anywhere from 2.5-to-3-points, depending on your sportsbook of choice. In most cases that would be an unusual twist. In this case, with the Big Ben-less Steelers, it’s a necessary adjustment on the NFL odds board, more of a reaction to the setback the Steelers have to deal with rather than any salute towards the Ravens. Or is it necessary? Michael Vick is set to lead the Steelers in this game and he is an experienced quarterback. There’s also the quality of the Steelers et al, including LeVeon Bell, who is raring to go after serving out his suspension. We don’t think this game is as straightforward as the odds makers would have you believe. No Big Ben doesn’t equal no win. Besides, the Ravens have BIG problems of their own, which appear to have been conveniently overlooked in this game: key injuries, subpar secondary, porous pass defense and suspect offense, just to name a few. Call us crazy, but we’re taking the points with the Steelers at home. We’ve not seen much of anything from the Ravens to warrant such favoritism.

NFL Picks: Steelers +3 (-115) at Bovada

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Jets vs. Dolphins +1.5
London is calling! The 2-1 SU Jets take on the 1-2 SU Dolphins in week 4 NFL betting over on the other side of the pond. Immediate factors that will affect this game are obvious: travel, jetlag, and time adjustment…so forth. It could go either way and plague each side differently. In any event, going on what we’ve seen of these two outfits, it must be said that the Dolphins are looking overly-hyped up right now by preseason expectations. They’re outscored 51-to-7 through three weeks – so much for the improved offense and vaulted defense – and they are after back-to-back losses to the Jaguars (shame!) and the Bills, the latter of which was an embarrassing 41-14 loss at home. The Jets, meanwhile, succumbed to their first loss of the season in week 3, losing to the Eagles 24-17. It wasn’t a great performance by any stretch of the imagination by Ryan Fitzpatrick (3 INTs), which has some NFL bettors believing the Jets have come back down to earth with a resounding thud. Still, this is a divisional rivalry that holds a lot of significance for each side in the division proper. Jets are 3-0 ATS in their last three games with the Dolphins. And based on the better season the Jets are enjoying odds makers install them as the faves, with the spread trading anywhere from 1.5-to- 2-points. Some books however remain with the opening EVEN line, such as 5Dimes. This is a tossup in more ways than one, but we’re going with the Jets to heap more misery on the Dolphins in London.

NFL Picks: Jets -1.5 (-110) 

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Panthers vs. Bucs +3
Cam Newton and the Panthers are riding the momentum of a 3-0 SU start to the season, which includes a 2-1 ATS mark and a 7.7-point margin of victory. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1-2 SU and ATS with a whopping 10.3-point margin of defeat behind rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. The only win the Bucs managed was a week 2 win over the limping Saints on the road, which is fast looking more of a fluke than anything tangible to hang your hat on. As such, we’re somewhat surprised that the NFL betting line on this game is so close, merely a field goal advantage for the road Panthers. More significantly, the Bucs are 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS at home in their last ten games. Take from that stat what you will, but we’re comfortable laying the points with the Panthers on our NFL picks. Are you?

NFL Picks: Panthers -3 (-110) 

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Texans vs. Falcons -7.0
The Falcons are 3-0 SU and ATS with a 5.7-point margin of victory through three games, which included wins and covers over the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys. As the home team, they are 1-0 SU and ATS this season with a 2-point winning margin, a teeny cross section that is hardly conclusive. It represents the narrow 26-24 win over the Eagles, which – mind you – was a bit fortuitous as the Eagles missed a field goal that could have given them the game win. So, we can’t help but feel that the 7-point spread that is currently trading on this game, up from an opening 5-points – quite the jump, don’t you think? – is slightly too large. Falcons haven’t blown away the opposition as much as winning games by chipping away at their opponents and playing no-nonsense football. Of course, that’s one side of the coin. The Texans are just 1-2 SU and ATS on the season and their quarterback situation is looking somewhat dire. That could play to the Falcons’ favour. Still, the Texans defense could give Matt Ryan and the O-line fits and make it difficult to run away with the game on the scoreboard. It’s a tossup, but we’re going with the Texans to cover as the road underdogs on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Texans +7 at Heritage

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Jaguars vs. Colts -10
Colts avoided the dreaded 0-3 SU start with a come-from-behind win over the plucky Titans, but did they do enough to assuage the questions that hang over their heads. Frankly, we don’t think so as it was a teeth-gnashing end to the game. Marcus Mariota brought the Titans to the endzone and then attempted a two-point conversion in order to send the game into OT, but for a fortuitous stop by the Colts defense. Put this way, they certainly haven’t done enough this season to warrant a whopping 9-point spread for week 4’s clash with the Jaguars. Granted we are talking about the Jaguars, the delinquents of the AFC South over the past few seasons and a side that is coming off a horrific 51-17 beat down at Gillette Stadium. That was the Patriots for you though, so let’s not use that one game to define the Jaguars. Simple fact is that the Colts aren’t playing up to expectations. Past results between this pair aside, if we look at the Colts that we have before us right now how a blowout can be on the cards is surprising. Obviously, odds makers think it is and the public is jumping on the bandwagon, bringing all their lovely earnings from week 3 and piling it on the Colts at the betting window, but we’re fading the Colts though and shading the Jaguars as the 10-point road underdogs.

NFL Picks: Jaguars +10 (-125) at 5Dimes

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Chiefs vs. Bengals -3.5
The Chiefs are riding a two-game losing streak ahead of week 4 NFL betting and slip to a 1-2 SU and ATS start on the season, highlighted by a 3.3-point losing margin on average. It was always going to be a tough start to the season with the Texans, Broncos and Packers in straight succession in the first three weeks, followed by the Bengals in week 4. Fortunately, things do lighten up a little bit afterwards so the Chiefs have that at least going for them. That said, they’ll still be looking to bounce back in week 4, surely. So long as they take the last few knockbacks in stride, we like their chances against the Bengals in Cincy. Yup, you heard it right. Bengals might be 3-0 SU and ATS all while boasting a 9.7-point winning margin, but their wins have come at the expense of the Raiders, road-inconsistent Chargers and struggling Ravens. What’s more, Andy Dalton can’t help being Andy Dalton. He’s still unsteady when under pressure and the Chiefs defense can give him the run around. Jamaal Charles had a great account in Green Bay, despite the 38-28 loss to the Packers in MNF. He could have a great game in Cincy and lift the Chiefs to the cover, if not win altogether. All this has us thinking that the 3.5-point spread that is currently trading on the NFL odds board is overly generous, but we’re happy to take the points.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +3.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Giants vs. Bills -5.5
The NY Giants bounced back in Thursday Night Football against a familiar foe, Washington Redskins. It was a much needed morale-boost for Eli Manning and the maligned Giants. Question is can they make it two in a row against the surprisingly offensive-minded Buffalo Bills, who have outscored opponents 100-to-68 through three games, beating the Colts and Dolphins while giving the Patriots something to think about in a narrow loss. Bills are 2-1 SU and ATS with a 10.7-point margin of victory. The Giants are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS with a 2.0-point margin of victory. As it is, the NFL betting spread trading on this game is a rather hefty 5.5-points, with the Bills to the good. Obviously, the road to recovery is steeped with obstacles for the Giants and it’s not expected to be smooth sailing in week 4. Let’s face it, a win over the Redskins is hardly a ringing endorsement of NFL betting value. Buffalo have closed as underdogs in each and every game so far this season, yet they’ve proved to be well worth the points. Now, they’re faced with a new role, as the favorites. It’s a demanding position, one in which we’ve yet to see Tyrod Taylor shine. But has he done anything to discourage the thought that he can rise to the occasion. It’s a lot of points to be laying with an untried quarterback, but fortune favors the brave so they say. We’re feeling brave with our NFL pick here.

NFL Picks: Bills -5.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Raiders vs. Bears +3
Hold the front page: the Raiders are road favorites in week 4 NFL betting. Can the Raiders string together a three-game winning streak? Next thing you know, pigs are going to start flying. Then again, they are taking on the winless Bears and their woeful defense. Pigs may not fly, but the pigskin is sure to take flight into the Raiders’ endzone.

NFL Picks: Raiders -3 (-105) at 5Dimes

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Eagles vs. Redskins +3
If the Philadelphia Eagles can’t beat the Washington Redskins then colour the world shocked. Week 1 was a bit of an unlucky one for the Eagles as they lost 26-24 to the Falcons with a missed field goal attempt weighing heavily over them. Week 2 was a debacle best forgotten. Week 3 was a little bit better as the Eagles came to life in New York. The Redskins are the Redskins, despite a 1-2 SU record and a defense that ranks amongst the best right now. They’ve really not been tested by better teams, facing the Dolphins, Rams and Giants so far. Eagles are the 3-point road faves, which is a bit much given the shaky account deposited in the first three weeks of NFL betting. However, the Redskins aren’t that good either, seriously.

NFL Picks: Eagles -3 (-120) at Bet365

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Browns vs. Chargers -7.5
The way things are going for the Cleveland Browns it’s going to be a long season. The Chargers aren’t exactly shining on the NFL stage, but they’re back home in week 4 NFL betting where they are semi-decent and can be trusted to beat up on lesser teams. It’s a rather hefty spread the odds makers are going with for this game, ranging from 7.5-to-9-points with the Chargers to the good. We are somewhat weary trusting the Chargers with that many points, but if the alternative is to take the points with the Browns then we’re having none of it. This is a case of bad to worse, where we’re forced to throw our lot with the lesser of the two.

NFL Picks: Chargers -7.5 (-110) at YouWager

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Packers vs. 49ers +8.5
After the clinic Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put on in MNF, the Niners have to be concerned about their upcoming date. Rodgers and the Packers are rounding out into nice form behind a three-game winning streak, which features a 3-0 ATS mark and a 9.3-point winning margin. Rodgers had a 5 TD performance against the Chiefs, who are by all accounts a good team and a potential contender in the AFC. The Niners meanwhile had their butts whooped by the Cardinals in week 3 NFL betting, a 47-7 loss that left much to be desired and unleashed the critics on Jim Tomsula. Patience is wearing thin with Colin Kaepernick, who is coming off an NFL worst performance as a quarterback, a rather dubious honour. Of course, the Packers aren’t the same on the road as they are at home, but if the Niners continue to stink up the place they won’t need to be. Packers are currently 8.5-point road faves at most sportsbooks with 5 Dimes going as high as 9.5-points. It’s a lot of points to be laying with any team on any given Sunday, but when the option boils down to a choice between Rodgers and Kaepernick, the choice is obvious.

NFL Picks: Packers -8.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Vikings vs. Broncos -4.5
The Denver Broncos are 3-0 SU and ATS this season, with an 8.3-point margin of victory on average. At home, they are 1-0 ATS on the season with a 6-point margin of victory, down to a 19-13 win over the Ravens in week 1 as the 4.5-point home faves. Since 2014, the Broncos are 5-5 ATS as home faves with an 11.2-point margin of victory. Put those stats in juxtaposition with the Vikings’ stats on the road and it’s a small wonder the spread on this game is so low. The Vikings might be 12-7 ATS overall since 2014, but they are just 5-4 ATS as the away team with a 4.3-point margin of defeat on average. Against the better teams or established heavyweights in the league, the Vikings are yet to come up trumps particularly on the road. Last year they lost to the Packers 42-10 on the road and 30-7 to the Patriots at home. The Broncos are in the same league.

NFL Picks: Broncos -4.5 at TheGreek

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Rams vs. Cardinals -6.5
The Cardinals are a league-leading 3-0 SU and ATS going into week 4 with a staggering 25.7-point margin of victory on average. Since 2014, they are a league-leading 14-6 ATS with a 3.9-point winning margin on average, which includes an 8-2 ATS mark at home with a 7.5-point winning margin on average. It’s not a coincidence that they are the 6.5-point home chalk in this game. As home favorites, they are an even better 5-1 ATS with a 14-point winning margin of victory on average. It’s a hefty NFL betting spread for a divisional rivalry that has been close at times, including last season’s 12-6 win on the road. But there’s a caveat to that last meeting – Carson Palmer was out with an ACL injury for the season and the Cards were relying on backup quarterback play. In fact, Palmer was injured last season in this divisional clash in week 9 when the Cards hosted the Rams in Arizona. This is one he’d love to win surely, if only to exorcise those demons.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -6.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Cowboys vs. Saints -3
How sexy is this clash going to be now that it's going to feature a less than 100% Drew Brees and a Cowboys team that is going to be led by Brandon Weeden. The line opened on this game with the Saints favoured by 7-points at home, which was generous to say the least given they are 0-3 SU this season. It's since dropped down to 3-points with the Saints still favoured. Ok so Drew Brees is a great quarterback, but he's not 100% and the Saints defense is nowhere nearly as good as the Saints offense. For the reason that we can't justify the Saints' favouritism in this game, we're tickling the Cowboys on our NFL Picks. 

NFL Picks: Cowboys +3 (+100) Westgate


Lions vs. Seahawks -9.5
How much stock should NFL bettors put into the Seattle’s 26-0 win over Chicago in week 3 NFL betting, when the Bears are playing with all the ferocity and intensity of cubs. Not a whole lot, but one still fancies their chances against a desperate Detroit side that is winless on the season and boasts a 0-3 ATS record underscored by a 9-point losing margin. Not without coincidence, the NFL betting line opened on the 9.5-point mark across sports betting platforms. Seattle are 7-3-1 ATS at home since 2014 with a 12-point margin of victory and they too are desperate to get to the top of the NFC West pile.

NFL Picks: Seahawks -9.5 (-105) at Bet365

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