NFL Picks: Week 4 False Favorites & Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 6:45 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 6:45 PM UTC

This week we begin the byes, which give us one fewer game to use from the sportsbooks and makes our job of beating the NFL odds just that much harder. But nobody said this was going to be easy, right?

As football handicappers, it is about finding the correct value and situation and for this particular article and video, that has been accomplished thus far in 2015, with a 7-2 record against the spread. Let's see if I can beat the NFL odds again with these picks.

The present listed betting odds are courtesy of Heritage.


False Favorite - Buffalo Loses a Little Swagger
As was stated last week, Buffalo was in a very good spot against a miserable home team in Miami. However, I think the tables are turned here with the Bills back in their park against dangerous Giants team, who could easily be 3-0 coming into this nonconference New York state showdown.

Buffalo presumably will be without WR Sammy Watkins and somewhat hobbled LeSean McCoy and Eli Manning gets back Victor Cruz, to go along with other quality perimeter weapons, giving the Bills a lot of talented pass catchers to cover every play. The Bills' rushing game is the best in the NFL, yet the Giants are second in the league in stopping the run, which should neutralize that facet of Buffalo's offense.

Add in the G-Men are 12-2 ATS off an NFC East home win and 22-11 ATS on the road off a division game and Buffalo at -6 is too heavy for a three-point outcome.

NFL Pick: Giants +5.5 at bet365

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False Favorite - Atlanta Has Quite a Tussle with Texans
Houston finally stepped into the winner circle last week with an underwhelming home victory over Tampa Bay. With Atlanta off to a sizzling 3-0 SU and ATS start, why wouldn't the public back the Dirty Birds early and elevate them from -5 to -6.5?

Here is why this doesn't work in spite of the brilliance of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. While the Texans offense has been rather dull, they are facing a Falcons crew conceding 24 points a game, hardly what their new coach Dan Quinn had in Seattle recently. No question Atlanta's 3-0 spread mark is impressive, but let's not lose sight of the fact they trailed SU heading into the fourth quarter in each of those contests and yet managed to win and cover. That will not keep continuing for long.

Lastly, teams off three exact covers in Weeks 4-6, are 6-14-1 ATS if a bye is not involved the past three seasons. Possible win for the Falcons, just very close.

NFL Pick: Texans +6.5 at Pinnacle

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Top Dog - San Francisco Rallies Against Green Bay in Situational Action
Why in the world would I back a team that was just outscored 90-25 in past two games and surrendered 677 passing yards and now has to face Aaron Rodgers? Here is my thought process for taking the 8.5 points for NFL picks.

The 49ers are back home which has to help and their coaching staff will trust Colin Kaepernick a little less after last week and test Green Bay with Carlos Hyde and the power running game, much like Chicago did in the Packers first road game.

The Pack are off three important games and let's be honest, this sure looks like a break in the schedule and they have to travel on a short week. Add in home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, after scoring nine points or less in last game are 17-5 ATS since 2011 and the Niners appear to be a solid top dog.

NFL Pick: 49ers +9.5 at 5Dimes

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