NFL Picks: Week 4 Fades & Games to Avoid

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 24, 2013 3:04 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 24, 2013 3:04 PM UTC

For those studying the NFL odds, here are three games to stay away from like a vegetarian taken to a Brazilian steak house.

Follow our continuing NFL odds coverage! Check out our NFL Week 4 Betting Odds Report!

Unwittingly Sticks It to the English

If Commissioner Roger Goddell really wants a franchise or two in London and or Europe, he might want to go flex scheduling. Granted, there would have been no way for him to know Pittsburgh and Minnesota would have yet to win a game after three weeks of the season, nonetheless, this cannot help ticket sales.

And let’s consider the players and coaches. Each team’s coaching staff is desperate for a victory and having the distractions of travel and selling goodwill when you are 0-3 is the last thing either head coach wants to deal with.

With the two teams having committed 19 turnovers (Vikings have 10, and 9 for the Steelers) and neither defense coming through in clutch situations, consider this matchup like Chernobyl and stay away from these NFL betting odds in jolly old England.

Looking for some better Week 4 betting? Read our NFL Week 4 Value Picks!

Why Is the Spread So Low? 

The New York Giants are just over 20 months removed from taking home a Super Bowl trophy and after three weeks of this season; their partners in New Jersey have a better chance to make the playoffs than they do using mathematical formula-based records.

The Giants are one of seven teams which have yet to post a victory and only lowly Jacksonville has a poorer scoring differential than Big Blue (-61 vs. -64).

Contrast this with Kansas City, who is coming off a 2-14 campaign and has renewed confidence under new coach Andy Reid with a 3-0 record and two covers.

Just off the top, many sports betting handicappers probably had the Chiefs as six or seven point favorite using their power ratings, yet the odds makers sent K.C. out at -4 and they have only risen to -4.5. Why such a low number? This alone is reason to leave this non-conference clash alone.

Cardinals Are No Road Warriors and Buccaneers Talking Mutiny

In the last 10+ seasons, Arizona is 20-62 SU on the road, covering the spread just over 40 percent of the time in away games, not exactly inspiring numbers for underdog players making NFL picks.

Raheem Morris was fired after three years for being “too soft” on his Tampa Bay players and ownership wanted a sterner figure and hired Greg Schiano from Rutgers. Schiano is more demanding than a Wall Street bank chasing profits and reports out of West Florida had “unconfirmed sources” stating players were tired of Schiano’s ways and wanted him gone or they wanted to be traded.

Since their four-game winning streak last season, the Buccaneers are 1-8 SU and ATS, with the only victory and cover the last game of the season against Atlanta, who had already wrapped up the home field advantage.

While Tampa Bay has to win eventually, they are 9-14-6 ATS when favored by three or less and Arizona is 0-6 SU and ATS in the second of two or more away games.

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