NFL Picks: Week 4 Betting Trends You Need to Consider

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 1:35 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 1:35 PM UTC

Find out what  betting trends are in play for week 4 of football and how they might determine your NFL picks and maximize profit. 

Ravens vs. Steelers

Baltimore Ravens are 0-3 SU and ATS to start the season for the first time in their 20-year history, and faced with a quick turnaround before a Thursday Night clash against divisional foes Pittsburgh Steelers. Steelers, meanwhile, improved to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS behind a narrow win over the Rams in week 3 NFL betting, but –and this is crucial – they’ll be without Ben Roethlisberger for the foreseeable (4-6weeks) as he went down with an injury (sprained MCL). Enter Mike Vick. Last season, Ravens and Steelers collided three times, with the Ravens going 2-1 SU. They won 26-6 in Baltimore in week 2 NFL betting and 30-17 in Pittsburgh in the wild card round of the playoffs, while the Steelers crushed the Ravens 43-23 at Heinz Arena in week 9 NFL betting. Ravens are 6-3 SU in the last nine games against Steelers, but they are 1-4 SU on the road in their last five overall games. Pittsburgh have the considerable 12-7 SU edge over Baltimore in the last 19 games when playing at Heinz Arena. Total has scored UNDER in five of the last seven Pittsburgh games.


Jets vs. Dolphins
Both the Jets and Dolphins are coming off losses in week 3 NFL betting and will be looking to bounce back. The Jets fell to the Eagles at home, marking their first loss of the season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, slipped to their second straight loss behind 41-14 walloping by the Bills in week 3 NFL betting.  Dolphins are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing NY Jets, and they are 1-2 ATS this season overall, which includes 1-1 ATS mark on the road. Last season, the pair split the series with each side winning on the road. Jets beat the Dolphins 37-24 in Miami and the Dolphins won 16-13 in NY. That trend extends to the 2013 and 2012 seasons as well – both winning on the road each time. If that trend holds true this week, the Jets might be the smart NFL pick.


Panthers vs. Bucs
Carolina Panthers take a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark into week 4, a solid run of form to start the season that is further underscored by a 4-1 SU record over Tampa in the last five meetings. Last season, the Panthers swept the series with the Bucs winning 20-14 away and 19-17 at home – both games scoring on the UNDER in total betting to mark three UNDERs in a row between this pair. They went 1-1 ATS in those meetings, each covering on the road: the Panthers covering the 5-point spread on the road and the Bucs covering as the 3.5-point road underdogs.


Texans vs. Falcons
Houston Texans take a 1-2 SU and ATS record to Atlanta in week 4 NFL betting. Falcons are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS to start the season with new head coach Dan Quinn and looking to continue that form at the expense of the Texans, who are 0-1 ATS on the road this season with a 7-point margin of defeat. Falcons are 3-0 ATS with a 5.7-point margin of victory. Falcons are 1-2 in OVER-UNDER betting this season. Last year, the Falcons were underwhelming, finishing 3-5 SU at home. It’s safe to say: those NFL trends are a moot point. New coach, new attitude.


Jaguars vs. Colts
Jaguars were embarrassed by the Patriots in week 3 NFL betting, losing 51-17. New England Patriots are playing mad this season after the brouhaha over deflate-gate, but to hang 50-plus points on a fellow pro-football team is another matter entirely. So much for the steady improvement of the Jaguars. In the loss, the Jaguars slip to a 4-15 SU record since 2014 and a league worst 0-9 SU record on the road. Against the spread, they are 7-11-1 ATS since 2014 with a 10.8-point margin of defeat and they are 3-5-1 ATS on the road with a 16.3-point margin of defeat. Colts avoided a 0-3 SU start to the season with a come-from-behind win over Titans in week 3 NFL betting, marking Luck’s tenth career fourth quarter comeback. This is a divisional matchup the Colts have dominated over the past few seasons; last term, the Colts swept the series winning 44-17 in Jacksonville and 23-2 in Indianapolis. The Colts are 5-0 ATS over the Jaguars in their last five straight meetings and the UNDER has cashed in four of those five meetings.


Chiefs vs. Bengals
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-4 SU in their last five meetings with the Bengals on the road, but the last meeting came in 2012 and, as such, has little bearing on their upcoming clash. Chiefs are and 2-3 SU on the road in their last five road games (not including the Monday Night clash with the Packers in week 3 NFL betting). Bengals are 5-3-1 ATS at home since 2014 with a 2.8-point margin of victory and 6-2-1 SU.


Giants vs. Bills
The Giants finally clinched their first win of the season with a 32-21 win over the Washington Redskins in week 3 NFL betting. It’s a long week for the Giants, a fortuitous twist ahead of their date with the Buffalo Bills, who are turning heads this season and off to quite a solid 2-1 SU start at the expense of quality outfits in the league. The Bills are 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS at home since 2014 with a 2-point margin of victory, which includes a 1-1 SU and ATS record at home behind a loss to the Patriots and a win over the Colts. Bills are 4-2 SU in their last six games while the Giants are 4-10 SU in their last 10 games. Giants won the last meeting between this pair in 2011, a long time ago and hardly representative of the matchup this season. Both Giants and Bills are 2-1 in OVER-UNDER betting this season.


Raiders vs. Bears
The 2-1 SU Raiders descend on the 0-3 SU Bears, riding a two-game winning streak behind upsets over the Ravens and Browns in back-to-back weeks. The Bears, meanwhile, are coming off an embarrassing 26-0 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle. Past NFL betting trends between this pair reveal the Bears are 4-1-1 ATS against the Raiders in the last six meetings, but the most recent was in 2011. Not relevant to this matchup considering both teams have changed significantly over the years. The total has hit the OVER in the last five Oakland games while the total has gone UNDER in three of the last five Bears games.

Eagles vs. Redskins
The Eagles are coming off a 24-17 win over the NY Jets in week 3 NFL betting, which saw them come through as the road underdogs SU and ATS for NFL bettors. The Washington Redskins, meanwhile, slipped to the 32-21 loss to the Giants in Thursday Night Football betting. Something is going to have to give in this NFC East clash of 1-2 SU teams. NFL betting trends tip the scale towards the Eagles, who are 11-4 SU in the last 15 meetings in Washington. However, they are just 2-4 ATS in the last six meetings with the Redskins, which includes a heart-breaking 27-24 loss in the nation’s capital towards the tail end of last season that effectively ended Philly’s playoff hopes. Last season, they split the meetings with each side winning at home – Eagles won 37-34 at home. In 2013, Philly swept the series. Redskins are 1-1 SU at home this season, but 4-6 SU in their last ten home games since 2014.

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Browns vs. Chargers
The Browns and Chargers are 1-2 SU going into week 4 and desperate to get back on track. If the NFL betting trends were any indication for your NFL picks, the Chargers are looking good on that score. Chargers are 6-3 SU at home since 2014 with a 5.6-point margin of victory and 11-6 SU since 2013 with a 5.3-point margin of victory. That amounts to an approximately 65% winning ratio at home. Put against Cleveland’s 4-13 SU record on the road since 2013 (or a 23.5% winning ratio), which includes a 7.2-point margin of defeat the NFL odds, and you get the picture. Certainly, the NFL odds are in favour of the hosts. Past trends reveal the Chargers are 4-1 SU in the last five meetings with Cleveland at home, but the Browns haven’t been on the road to the Chargers since 2006! Hardly a relevant stat for your NFL picks.


Packers vs. 49ers
The Green Bay Packers take on the San Francisco 49ers in week 4 NFL betting. Avid NFL bettors are well aware of the quality of the Packers at Lambeau as one of the toughest home teams. On the road, they are not so infallible though. Since 2014, they are 5-5 SU and ATS on the road with a 1.5-point margin of defeat (includes playoffs). Question is whether the Niners can capitalise. That said, Green Bay are 12-7-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall with a 7.8-point margin of victory, marking the second best record in the league ahead of MNF (tonight’s clash with the Chiefs isn’t included in the stats yet). San Francisco 49ers were crucified by the Cardinals in week 3 NFL betting, losing 41-14 on the road. The loss marked their second straight loss of the season on the road and drops them to a 1-2 SU and ATS start on the season. Since 2014, the Niners are 7-11-1 ATS with a 4.3-point margin of defeat overall and 3-6 ATS in their last nine home games since 2014. Most concerning for Niners fans is the fact that they are 2-6 SU in their last eight games.


Vikings vs. Broncos
The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on the season and looking to go up 4-0 SU at the expense of the 2-1 SU Vikings, riding a two-game winning streak at home. The Vikings are playing their second road game of the season after an embarrassing 20-3 loss in San Francisco in week 1 NFL betting. The Broncos are one of the best teams in the league since 2012. Their 43-13-0 SU record that includes a 9.3-point margin of victory ahead is top of the stats ahead of week 4 NFL betting this season. As the home team they are 25-4 SU with a 13.5-point margin of victory (which is an incredible 83% winning ratio approximately since 2012. Since 2013, they’ve only lost two home games, which marks a 90% winning ratio. By comparison, Vikings are one of the worst teams on the road in the league since 2013 with a 2-14-1 SU mark and a 7.2-point margin of defeat. Total has gone UNDER in six of Denver’s last nine games while the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last six games.


Rams vs. Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals are flying high in the NFC West with a 3-0 SU and ATS start on the season, highlighted by a 25.7-point margin of victory – currently the biggest margin in the league. Cardinals have mercilessly taken apart their opponents, nowhere more so than at home where they are 9-1 SU since 2014 and boast a 7.5-point margin of victory. Since 2014, the Cardinals are league-leading 14-6-0 ATS with a 3.9-point margin of victory and league-leading 8-2-0 ATS at home with a 7.5-point margin of victory.  Rams are 8-11-0 ATS overall in their last 19 games with a 2.5-point margin of defeat and 4-13 SU against the Cardinals in their last 17 meetings. Arizona swept the series last season winning 12-6 away and 31-14 at home.

Cowboys vs. Saints
With Tony Romo out of the line-up in week 3 NFL betting, the Cowboys slipped to their first defeat of the season – a 39-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after three rounds of the season with an 8-point margin of defeat. They are 2-7 ATS at home in their last nine games with a 4.8-point margin of defeat and 7-12 SU in their last 19 games, which includes a 3-6 SU mark at home. Cowboys were the best team on the road in 2014 finishing with an 8-0 SU mark. They are 10-1 SU in their last 11 road games. Whether these NFL betting trends will hold true with Luke McCown at quarterback remains to be seen.


Lions vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks avoided a 0-3 SU start with a convincing 26-0 win over the Bears. The Lions weren’t as fortunate, slipping to a 0-3 SU start behind a 24-12 loss to the Broncos at home in week 3 NFL betting. If the panic button isn’t hit yet, it’s sure to be hit in week 4 if the Lions slip to a 0-4 SU start, which could effectively end their season even before it gets off the mark. Seahawks are 8-1 SU in their last nine home games while the Lions are 1-6 SU in their last seven road games (talk about polar opposites). Since 2014, Seattle is 10-1 SU at home with a 12-point margin of victory and 7-3-1 ATS. Detroit is a league-worst 3-7 SU and ATS over the same stretch with a 5.2-point margin of defeat.

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