NFL Picks: Week 4 Advanced Lines to Keep You One Step Ahead

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 25, 2015 12:46 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 12:46 AM UTC

With Week 3 of the season still in progress, let’s get an early jump on the Advanced Odds for NFL Week 4 betting from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -3½
The Advanced Line for this Week 4 AFC North Thursday Night Football showdown between QB Ben Roethlisberger (41-43 ATS) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, at Rams Sunday) and QB Joe Flacco (31-26-1 ATS at Home) and the Baltimore Ravens (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, vs. Bengals) saw the Steelers open up as 3-point favorites, so despite the poor start to the new season for Baltimore—the Ravens opened season with two games it lost out West (San Diego, Denver)—the Point Spread here on the Advanced Line (-3½) is only a ½ point higher than it was early in the Summer. Why? Pittsburgh’s Defense is a big question mark and we will see where the Ravens are really at after this Sunday’s (Week 3) game against the upstart Bengals (2-0) here in Baltimore (Ravens -3, 45, Pinnacle).

The Steelers will have RB Le’Veon Bell back (Week 3), but WR Martavis Bryant will still be out and serving the last game of his 4-game Suspension. Trend-wise, Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Ravens—not including the Playoffs—and in this Regular Season game here last year at Heinz Field, the Steelers rolled to a 43-23 victory as 2½-point favorites, although the last time they met here was in the opening round of the AFC Playoffs where HC John Harbaugh (68-57-4 ATS) and Baltimore ousted the Steelers, 3-17 as 3-point underdogs. This could be the most entertaining game on the schedule as well as the most important, especially for the visiting Ravens who could possibly be coming in this game 0-3 if they lose to Cincinnati at Baltimore on Sunday.


Sunday, October 4, 2015

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins -1
The new-look New York Jets (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS; vs. Eagles Sunday) and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick head across the Atlantic Ocean to London, England next weekend to face QB Ryan Tannehill (7-10-1 ATS vs. AFC East) and the Miami Dolphins (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; vs. Bills Sunday) in what could really end up being a huge game in the AFC East when all is said and done. The Jets looked really good on Monday night beating the Colts in Indianapolis while the Dolphins fell at Jacksonville against the lowly Jaguars on Sunday so this number looks like an opportunity to make some cash, as it seems the J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets! are a better football teams with a better Defense than the Fish, no matter the Dolphins hype. Thanks, Darrelle Revis. The Dolphins are 3-0 ATS the L3 vs the Jets.

NFL Pick: Jets +1

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts -7 
A month ago, none of us would have been surprised to see the Indianapolis Colts (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS; at Titans Sunday) and QB Andrew Luck (17-7-2 ATS at Home) installed as double-digit favorites here, but now questions about the OL and Defense for Indianapolis—an even rumblings about Head Coach Chuck Pagano (25-18-1 ATS)—have pounded this number down to where it probably should be with the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; at Patriots Sunday) and Blake Bortles (3-3-1 ATS on Road) for this AFC South meeting in Week 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. In this game here last season, the Colts won 23-3 as 13-point favorites, and Indianapolis—who went 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS vs. the AFC South—and Indianapolis also easily won and covered (-5½) the meeting at Jacksonville, winning by 27 points (44-17). The Colts are 5-0 ATS the L5 vs. the Jaguars.

NFL Pick: Colts -7 


Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons -3½
The Houston Texans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; vs. Buccaneers Sunday) head to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta (to play an indoor football game in the beautiful Fall) to face the Falcons (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, at Cowboys Sunday night) in a big inter-conference affair for both teams who both have realistic playoff aspirations. And this is definitely a game the Texans and J.J. Watt can win although Falcons QB Matt Ryan (32-23-2 at Home) and WR Julio Jones have gotten off to a wonderful start thanks in great part to the football philosophies of new Head Coach Dan Quinn.

These two teams seldom play, but the last time they did (2011), the Falcons lost 17-10 as 2-point underdogs in Houston, while the last time these two played here in Atlanta (2007), the Falcons won outright, 26-16 as 2½-point underdogs. One of the better games next week and we’ll see if Houston is still rolling with Ryan Mallett at QB, who actually threw the football 58 times (27/58, 244 yards, TD) last week in the Texans loss at Carolina. This could be a breakout and Confidence-building game for the Houston QB—who has been fighting Brian Hoyer for the top spot—but Mallett has been an enigma who seems to just be given a chance to settle in and still could end up being a solid NFL QB is everything goes right.

NFL Pick: Texans +3½


Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Carolina Panthers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; vs. Saints Sunday) and QB Cam Newton (18-16-1 ATS ) head to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa next Sunday to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, at Texans Sunday) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston in a big NFC South game from the Sunshine State. Last year in this series, the Buccaneers lost in this game, 20-14 and failed to cover as 4½-point favorites in Week 1 in Carolina while Tampa Bay covered, but lost as 3½-underdogs at Home in Tampa, 19-17. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS the L4 against the Buccaneers and it seems there’s still a pretty decent-sized chasm between these two teams.

NFL Pick: Panthers -3


New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills -5½
Eli Manning (42-49-1 at Home) and the New York Giants (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS; vs. Redskins Sunday) head north in the Empire State next Sunday to face the Buffalo Bills (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, at Dolphins Sunday) in a big inter-conference tilt for both teams, but maybe more so for the Giants who could be 0-3 at this point should they lose to the Redskins at MetLife Stadium this Sunday in Week 3. The last time these two played was in the 2011/12 Regular Season when the Giants won 27-24 as 3-point favorites (Push) in New Jersey, while the last time these two met here in Buffalo at Ralph Wilson Stadium (2007), the G-Men won outright and more than covered as 2½-point underdogs, 38-21. The Giants are 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings, but this is a really a tough spot for New York, NFC v1.0, even, and maybe especially, if they are 0-3 heading in here.


Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears No Line
There is no Advanced Line up here at the SuperBook yet for this game between the Chicago Bears (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, at Seahawks on Sunday) and the Oakland Raiders (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; at Browns Sunday), likely because of the condition of Bears QB Jay Cutler (Hamstring) who is reportedly out for at least 2 weeks and will be replaced by backup Jimmy Clausen this Sunday in Week 3 at Seahawks, so prepare for the carnage, Slim. The NFC’s Raiders and the NFC’s Bears meet every three seasons, and the last time they did (2011), the Raiders won 25-20 as 3-point chalks in Oakland, while the last time these two played here at Soldier Field in the Windy City (2007), the Bears won, 17-6, covering as 3½-point favorites. With Clausen at QB for the Bears, the Raiders may ultimately be installed as small favorites over Chicago here in Week 4. The Bears have held the upper edge and made the money in this series of late, going 8-2 ATS over the L10 vs. Oakland and 4-0 ATS the L4 here at Soldier Field in Chicago.


Philadelphia Eagles -2½ vs. Washington Redskins
The Philadelphia Eagles (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS; at Jets Sunday night) and new QB Sam Bradford (14-12 ATS on Road) head to Landover, Maryland and FedEx Field next Sunday for this Week 4 NFC East with the host Washington Redskins (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; at Giants Sunday) meeting between two teams suddenly feeling differently about their 2015/16 Regular Seasons. Last season in this game at FedEx Field, the Eagles lost 27-24 as 7-point favorites, while they won 37-34 at Home in Philly, also failing to cover, this time as 4-point underdogs. With no overpowering, recent, relevant Trends and a likely Sam Bradford-Kirk Cousins QB matchup, this seems like a good game to stay away from, even if the Eagles lose to the Jets and are 0-3 heading in here, as the Washington D and Rushing attack have been very impressive so far.


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals -3 Even
This Week 4 game between the visiting and the upstart Kansas City Chiefs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; at Packers Sunday) and QB Alex Smith (29-25-2 ATS on Road) and the Cincinnati Bengals (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, at Ravens Sunday) at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati next Sunday is one of the better games on the schedule in a somewhat lackluster week. The last time these two played, the Bengals did a number on the Chiefs in Kansas City, winning 28-7 as 3-point favorites in 2012 at Arrowhead Stadium. The last meeting here at Paul Brown Stadium (2009), Cincinnati won 17-10 but failed to cover as monster 12½-favorites on the NFL odds board. Another good game to watch and stay away from although the lean—and it’s a strong lean and not a casual, carefree, lean—is with the host Bengals who are stacked at the Skill Position spots with QB Andy Dalton (19-13-2 ATS at Home), WRs AJ Green and Marvin Bernard, TE Tyler Eifert and RBs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill.


Cleveland Browns vs. San Diego Chargers -6½
The San Diego Chargers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; at Vikings Sunday) welcome the Cleveland Browns (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; vs. Raiders Sunday) to Qualcomm Stadium in sunny San Diego next Sunday in this quirky AFC inter-divisional affair. For now, it looks like Cleveland will be riding with second-year man and former Heisman Trophy-winner Johnny Manziel at QB, and up against another mercurial gunslinger like the Chargers Philip Rivers (42-34-1 ATS at Home), this could turn into a fun watch. The last time these two met was in 2012 where the host Browns edged the Chargers, 7-6, covering as 3-point underdogs in an one ofthe lowest scoring games in the league in the last decade, while the last meeting here in San Diego was way back in 2006—when we all still Young and knew Nothing, like we still do—the Chargers won 32-25 and failed to cover as big, 12½-point chalks for our NFL picks. The Browns are 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. San Diego.


Green Bay Packers -6½ vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Green Bay Packers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, vs. Chiefs Sunday night) and QB Aaron Rodgers (34-18-3 ATS Road) head west to Santa Clara, California and the one-year old Levi’s Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, at Cardinals Sunday) and QB Colin Kaepernick (10-11 ATS at Home) in a fun and important NFC inter-divisional tilt (almost) from The City By The Bay. Things done changed. The last time these two historic NFL franchises met, the 49ers won 23-20 in the first round of the 2012 NFC Playoffs in Green Bay as 3-point favorites, so you can see how much perceptions of these two teams have changed over the last four seasons. The two also met in Week 1 that season in San Francisco, where the host Niners won and barely covered as 5½-point favorites, 34-28.

The 49ers are 3-2-1 over the L6 vs. the Cheeseheads and this is one of those games where anything could happen and few would be surprised. This is a tough spot for Green Bay, coming off tough back-to-back games against Seattle and Kansas City, flying the 2,268 miles to Frisco, staying in a hotel, and losing two hours on their Midwestern Body Clocks (CDT), playing in Santa Clara (PDT). And if the Pack come in 3-0, maybe even better for San Francisco, which could be 1-2 and looking to Keep Hope Alive.


Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos -5½
The Minnesota Vikings (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, vs. Chargers Sunday) head to Sports Authority Field in Denver next Sunday afternoon to play the host Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS; at Lions Sunday) and QB Peyton Manning (73-58-5 ATS on Road) in what could be an entertaining inter-conference match in the Rocky Mountains. Like the Packers, their NFC North counterpart, the Vikings will be losing 2 hours off their Body Clocks—the game will start at an odd 3:25 p.m. CT in the Vikings rhythms—and will travel a great distance and play at Altitude (5,280 feet above Sea Level) against a team which seldom loses at Home (Denver 8-0 at Home in 2014). Good times. The Purple People Eaters may well be puking purple by the 4th Quarter. The last time these two teams played, Denver won 35-32 in Minneapolis as 1½-point underdogs (2011), while the last time these two played in Colorado, the Broncos won 22-19 as 3-point underdogs in 2007 in Week 17 when Mike Shanahan was still Head Coach. I don’t think the Vikings are ready for the Broncos jelly. Or Defense. Or Altitude.

NFL Pick: Broncos -5½


St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals -4
The St. Louis Rams (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS; vs. Steelers Sunday) head to the Sonoran Desert at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale next Sunday afternoon to face the host Arizona Cardinals (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, vs. 49ers Sunday) in the third of four opening Home games for Arizona, meaning the Cardinals will only have 5 Home Dates left after this game, and all very, very tough ones (Ravens, Bengals, Vikings, Packers, Seahawks). Remember this scheduling reality when getting too high on the Cardinals or their early season record. When these two NFC West teams met last season, the Cardinals won 31-14 as 7-point favorites in this game here in metropolitan Phoenix, while Arizona also won outright in St. Louis, 12-6, as 6-point underdogs in Week 15, covering the Point Spread again. We bought pizza then. With steady Head Coach Bruce Arians (23-11-1 ATS), a solid Defense, QB Carson Palmer (28-26 ATS vs. NFC West) back healthy and feeling good, the pressure of playing in one of the best four divisions in the NFL and two underrated 25-year-old WR’s named Brown (John, Jaron) who simply get things done, it’s hard to fade this Arizona team these years.

The Cardinals are now a fantastic 23-11-1 ATS in their L35 Regular and Postseason games (67.6%), but let’s pump them Brakes a bit, brother, at least this season, as the Cardinals did get to open the season up with maybe the two worst teams in the NFL in the New Orleans Saints (31-19) and the Chicago Bears (48-23)—two teams now apparently allergic to playing defense. So, a little Chill may be in order, Bubba. A good number and a tough handicap, but a strong enough lean to make a pick on the host Cardinals and WR Larry Fitzgerald who will definitely have the edge at the Skill spots. And John and Jaron Brown. What can Brown do for you? Well if you’re Cardinals HC Arians, Brown can score some TDs for you. And if you are the General Public, the Wise Guys or just The Man In The Mirror making a little wager, maybe Brown make you a little Green.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -4


Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints No Line
Poor NBC. They dreamed of a Tony Romo vs. Drew Brees QB battle in prime time and the network might be getting a Brandon Weeden vs. Luke McCown drivel-fest instead. Maybe 60 Minutes (CBS) will be fresh next Sunday? Can you hear me Morley Safer? Here, the Dallas Cowboys (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, vs. Falcons Sunday) head to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the Big Easy to face the hapless New Orleans Saints (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS; at Panthers Sunday) and possibly a QB (Brees) with a serious Shoulder-injury. The last time these two met here (2013), New Orleans crunched the Cowboys, 49-17 as 6-point chalks, while last season when these two played in Dallas, the Cowboys rode off into the horizon with a 38-17 win as 3-point underdogs.

The Saints are 8-3 ATS the L11 vs. the Cowboys and New Orleans is 5-1 ATS the L6 here at Home in the Superdome. A line may go up on this when it’s clearer how bad the injury to Brees is and if he starts (Doubtful) and how he plays, if he does, this coming Week 3 in Charlotte against the Panthers (Panthers -3½, SIA). Maybe there’s enough time for NBC to switch this with one the Packers-49ers or maybe the Vikings-Broncos game? Tommy can you hear me? Some may die of boredom if and when this football game airs. Only gambling can save it.


Monday, October 5, 2015

Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks No Line
CenturyLink Field in Seattle is the site of another prime time game next Monday night in Week 4 which looked pretty good on the Schedule in spring but now may have lost some of its luster between the defending NFC champions Seattle Seahawks (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS; vs. Bears Sunday) and QB Russell Wilson (23-9-2 ATS at Home) and the visiting Detroit Lions (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS; vs. Broncos). The reason there is no line (Point Spread) up yet is eerily similar to the Saints-Cowboys and the Brees shoulder Injury, with the status of Lions QB Matthew Stafford (Ribs, Chest) a variable About an hour ago (Wednesday afternoon), the Detroit Free Press reported that Stafford looked pretty good in practice and might get the start. But if not, Dan Orlovsky will get the call against the Broncos. Here against Seattle, where SS Kam Chancellor has finally ended his Holdout today and has returned to give the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom a little more “boom.”

The last time these two played (2012), the Lions won and covered in Detroit, 28-24 as 2½-point favorites, while the last time these two NFC teams met in the Emerald City, the Seahawks won and barely covered, 32-20 as 11-point chalks in 2009, Tin Man. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings at Home and with the Lions traveling 2,350 miles, losing 3 Times Zones—EDT to PDT—having a healthier QB (Wilson) and a chip on their collective shoulder pads after an 0-2 start, backing the Seahawks when the line eventually does come out seems like the logical approach. Expect the number to be around (Seahawks minus) 6 or 7 unless Stafford gets crunched by the Broncos, forcing Orlovsky to get the start against an angry and motivated Seattle team with new TE Jimmy Graham, Chancellor finally back and the loudest fans in the NFL. It’s birds over cats in the Evergreen State. The SuperBook NFL Games of the Year line on this opened game up at Seahawks -7½.

NFL Week 4 Byes: New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 4 Advanced Line Picks: Jets +1 over Dolphins (London, England); Colts -7 over Jaguars; Texans +3½ over Falcons; Panthers -3 over Buccaneers; Broncos -5½ over Vikings; Cardinals -4 over Rams (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 

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