NFL Picks: Week 3 Special Betting Props

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 24, 2015 6:48 PM GMT

Welcome to Week 3 of the season. As with every week, I will examine some bettings props for your NFL picks.

Andrew Luck 'Over/Under' 1.5 Turnovers Week 3

Will Luck Lead All QBs In Turnovers This Season?
The Colts are easily one of the NFL's biggest disappointments at 0-2, and they have lost to two teams who missed the playoffs last year in Buffalo and the New York Jets. The offensive line definitely is a problem area on this team, as Coach Chuck Pagano made sure to point out following Monday's loss to the Jets, but Luck is also very much to blame. Luck has turned the ball over six times this season and has an NFL-high 28 since the start of 2014. Yes, more than guys like Jay Cutler or Blake Bortles. Luck was picked off three times and lost a fumble against the Jets. I'm not sure things will get better most weeks because Luck has no running game to help take the heat off. Luck's Colts are in Tennessee this Sunday. The Titans are nowhere near as good defensively as Buffalo and the Jets and have only two takeaways thus far, both vs. Tampa Bay rookie Jameis Winston.

NFL Free Picks: 'Under' 1.5 vs. Titans and yes Luck will lead NFL at +500.

 

Brandon Weeden O/U 250 Passing Yards, 1.5 TD Passes
Weeden takes over as the starter in Dallas with Tony Romo out until late November with a broken collarbone. And of course Weeden doesn't have star receiver Dez Bryant, who is also likely out until late November. Weeden also may not have tight end Jason Witten, who has two sprained ankles and a sprained knee but did practice Wednesday. Thus Weeden's two primary receivers might be the likes of Terrance Williams and Devin Street. That's weak. The Falcons are 29th against the pass in allowing 314.0 yards per game. They have given up three combined TD passes in wins over the Eagles and Giants.

NFL Free Picks: 'Over' both. Not so much because I have much faith in Weeden, but he's going to be throwing a lot because the Cowboys haven't been able to run much.

 

Le'Veon Bell O/U 79.5 Rushing Yards, 4.5 Receptions, 35.5 Receiving Yards

Will Bell Score A Touchdown: Yes -175, No +145
Bell will make his season debut in St. Louis on Sunday off his two-game suspension. The Steelers honestly haven't missed their 2014 team MVP much as they are No. 1 in the NFL in total offense and No. 3 in scoring. Bell's backup, new addition DeAngelo Williams, has been spectacular in his place. He had 127 yards rushing in the Week 1 win loss to New England and then 77 and three touchdowns in the Week 2 blowout of San Francisco. So might there be a bit of a timeshare now? Coach Mike Tomlin is being vague. “We will figure that out as we go. However, if Bell is available, we will use him,” he said. Well, thanks for making my NFL picks more difficult coach!

NFL Free Picks: 'Under' rushing yards, 'over' both receiving and yes on touchdown.

 

Will Mark Sanchez Replace Sam Bradford In Week 3?
Yes is +300 on NFL odds and no -500 and it can't be for injury reasons. I expected Bradford to have a big season under Chip Kelly but that hasn't come to fruition yet. In Sunday's home loss to Dallas, Bradford turned the ball over three times and the Eagles had only 10 points. In the first half, Bradford led the Eagles’ offense to just 21 total yards. That’s the lowest total in the first half by an NFL team since Bradford did it with the St. Louis Rams in 2013. Kelly was asked this week about starting Sanchez this week at his former team, the Jets. “Any chance Sanchez could play?” a reported asked Kelly. “Are you Mark’s agent?” Kelly said. The Jets have a great defense and have forced a league-high 10 turnovers so Bradford could be in for a long day. But Kelly will have major egg on his face if he pulls Bradford this soon after trading Nick Foles for him. this offseason.

NFL Free Pick: No.

 

0-2 Teams Making The Playoffs: O/U 2.5
'Over' is -250 and 'under' +170. Since the current playoff format was instituted in 1990, 24 teams started 0-2 and still qualified for the postseason. The Colts did it last year and are in the same boat. I think they make it again because their AFC South Division is terrible. Also think the Seahawks will get in. Will one of the Eagles or Ravens do so? I say yes.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over.' at Bovada