NFL Picks: Week 3 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, September 18, 2013 2:27 PM GMT

Week 3 is fast approaching, and with Thursday right around the corner, let’s take a look at a couple of early week value picks that I have uncovered. The NFL Odds are moving fast this week, so we need to jump on board early.

 

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Chiefs vs. Eagles

Thursday night will not only be a good game between teams that are a lot better than most people projected, but it’s Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia. While the fans from the “City of Brotherly Love,” will probably unnecessarily and unrightfully boo Reed, this could be a solid value game based on early week lines.

The NFL Odds for this one favor the Eagles at -3, but the total is where I am more focused on with this one, and it is set at 51 points. This being an early week game, both teams will be tired. Sometimes that helps opposing offenses, but for this game, I see the defense improving. The Chiefs already have a very tough defense this season, and they are by far the best defense the Eagles have faced so far this season. While the Eagles’ defense may not be very good, the Chiefs on offense aren’t great either.

Kansas City is going to run the ball all night, doing their best to keep Chip Kelly’s offense off the field. If Jamaal Charles can have another good game, this score will be lower than most. The Eagles aren’t going to get 70 plays against the Chiefs defense and the Chiefs’ offense with their slow drives down field should keep Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and the rest of the Eagles’ playmakers on the sideline. I’m seeing a final score of 24-20, which would make a bet on the ‘Under’ the way to go.

My Pick: ‘Under’ 51 @ Bookmaker

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Falcons vs. Dolphins

It seems the Falcons are becoming bigger underdogs by the minute in this game, but you can still find the Dolphins as slight -1 favorites in the NFL Odds, and I think we have to jump on that in a hurry. The Falcons will be without Steven Jackson in this game after he injured his thigh last week, and Roddy White is still not healthy, and he has received only a handful of targets through two weeks. Atlanta also lost a couple of key members of their defense this past week, including star WLB, Sean Witherspoon. Before the season Atlanta’s defense wasn’t very good, and now it’s looking really bad.

The Dolphins on the other hand are 2-0 SU this season and are looking better by the week. Last week Mike Wallace and Lamar Miller showed up to play, and they were a big reason why the Fins went into Indianapolis and won. This week with that defense coming back home against a banged up Falcons, I think the Dolphins could win this game a little easier than most thought they could. Atlanta is only 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the Dolphins have the firepower on both sides of the ball to knock out Atlanta. You can still get -1 at some online sportsbooks, so lay the one-point while you still can at books like 5Dimes, The Greek and Matchbook.

My Pick: Dolphins -1 @ The Greek

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