SBR's Peter Loshak shares his week 3 betting parlay, here he'll breakdown the public vs. sharp action in search of betting value to generate 3 plays worth adding to your NFL picks.
Pete’s Week 3 Parlay
The Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles both started the season with high expectations, and not just in media prognostications; both teams took notable sharp action on their futures odds prior to the start of the regular season. After the first two weeks, though, the picture is becoming crystal clear that both teams have major issues on the field, and that has been reflected at the betting window as well, as both teams are 0-2 SU and ATS so far, and have burned a lot of public money in the process.
In NFL Week 3 though, the public is still a buyer of the Colts, taking them as a road favorite against Tennessee, while the sharp action, that was fading the Colts in each of their first two games by kickoff, is again reportedly coming in against them.
The betting action for the Philly game this week, on the road against the Jets, is a lot more muddled. While the game has taken unusually high betting volume, the action has been split, both from the public, and, in a rarely-seen situation, from the sharps as well, with notable sharp action coming in early in the week backing both the Eagles and the Jets.
The Patriots and Seahawks are back in their familiar spots as double-digit home favorites, although so far, despite the on-field struggles we have seen from Seattle, sharp action has only come in against the Pats, and not as yet, against the Seahawks.
And while Peyton Manning has shown he has something left and has led the Broncos to straight-up wins and covers in each of their first two games, the sharp action isn’t a believer in him for Week 3, backing the troubled Detroit Lions as just a small home underdog.
And of course, two of the most debated and curious spreads of the week involve the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints, who will both be replacing their injured star QBs this week, Tony Romo and Drew Brees respectively.
The Atlanta Falcons, an improved team under new head coach Dan Quinn, are the Cowboys’ opponent this week, and they are currently a very small road favorite over the now-Brandon-Weeden-led Cowboys.
And the Saints, who will be starting Luke McCown at QB, opened as an underdog of more than a TD at Carolina, after the news of Brees being out was confirmed.
That news & the new line, though, did lead me to include a side in that game as one of my selections in my Pete’s Parlay for NFL Week 3.
3-Plays Parlay NFL Picks: Dolphins ML -150 / Saints +8 (-110) / Chargers-Vikings Under 45 (-120)